Wednesday - November 21, 2007
How This Will Play Out
It May Be A Reasoned Guess, But Let's Not Pretend It's Educated:
The coaching search is only, officially, 2 days old but Les Miles's name surfaced long before Carr announced him retirement and it's seemed like a foregone conclusion for some time. You will hear the steady drumbeat of Miles from now until this thing is settled.
If LSU loses (to Arkansas or in the SEC Championshp Game) the whole matter is settled. Skip the rest of this post because Miles is our man and no one will care if he leaves LSU before their Fiesta Bowl appearance against Kansas or whomever. But if they keep winning ...
You will hear statements from the LSU side that they are confident Miles is staying and that Miles would never give up a title shot to take another job. They will say, hint or imply that Miles will not be allowed to coach LSU in any potential title game if he is talking to Michigan.
LSU will make it difficult on Miles by putting an offer on the table before the title game that will force him to tip his hand. They will make it clear that if he does not sign the extension they will take that as a sign that he is leaving for Michigan.
From the Michigan side, you will start hearing rumors of other names. The first to surface was Kirk Ferentz. Others will rise. Brian Kelly will be mentioned. Mike Trgovac (he of the January 2006 rumors) may make a guest appearance.
Many fans will panic and put A (LSU bluster) and B (new names surfacing) together and get C (Michigan has given up on Miles and is looking at other options).
In reality, LSU is bluffing and Michigan is being cautious. Michigan needs names in case Miles turns us down, but Michigan can wait. And LSU knows they only hold one trump card in this game (the ability to deny Miles the title game). They also know that by playing that card they hurt themselves by disrupting a potential national title run. Their goal is make Miles panic and accept a contract extension.
Miles could, should and will tell them no. He should tell them that winning a title for LSU is the only thing he is focusing on, and that while that means he is not talking to Michigan and will not do so until after the season is over, it also means that he is not going to sit down and renegotiate a contract with LSU. His job from now until January 7th is winning LSU a title.
LSU will be left with two choices: wait it out or effectively fire Les Miles on the eve of the title game because he refused to sign an extension. The latter would be unprecedented.
And a third exists: LSU realizes the inevitability of the situation and makes the best of it, reaching an agreement that is acceptable for LSU, for Michigan and for Les Miles. After discussions among the two ADs, they jointly announce that Les Miles will take over for Michigan after he finishes the season at LSU, and that in the interim he will only be involved in the preparation for the bowl game (not the recruiting effort - Bo Pelini is allowed to man those duties and becomes the frontrunner for the HC job at LSU).
I put my money on the first. Michigan can wait. Les Miles can wait. And as long as they do, LSU has no choice but to wait. Les Miles takes over at Michigan on January 10th, 2008, give or take a day.
Cute Facts
The Michigan coaching staff in 1980:
Bo Schembechler, Tirrel Burton, Lloyd Carr, Tim Davis, Jerry Hanlon, Bill McCartney, Jerry Meter, Les Miles, Gary Moeller, Paul Schudel, Bob Thornbladh, Ron Vanderlinden, Milan Vooletich.
If Les Miles eventually gets this job, that means that in 1980 (and again from 1988 [see image] to 1989 <- thanks Rich), there were 4 current/future Michigan head football coaches prowling the sidelines together in Ann Arbor. Can anyone think of another example of this in modern football history, four head coaches at one program on staff together at the same time?
There were 5 future Division 1-A head coaches on Bo's staff that year (McCartney, Vanderlinden, Moeller, Carr and Miles). Two of them have won national titles (McCartney @ Colorado in 1990 and Carr @ Michigan in 1997) and one is an odds-on favorite to play for one this year (Miles @ LSU).