Billions of Dollars Without a Plan

No Plan

When it started to look like Gore was going to lose to the 700 Club, Enron, and Halliburton, I bought my first oil stock. I looked around for a Canadian company that I thought would do well. At first they didn't - this is because at the time some 75% of their US revenue was from fiber optics - so much for buying an oil company. I stuck with this trenching company from Red Deer, Alberta and as Bush went to war with conservation, old foes, and to secure old agendas, sure enough my plan worked. What would I do with the proceeds - well that is invested in my retirement. In other words, I had a plan.

So what did the government do? Alberta makes billions in oil revenue at $25.00/barrel. This makes the Alberta government and many (certainly not all) of its citizens among the richest in the world. At over twice that ($50, $60, and so on) - well I can only imagine and it would seem that my imagination is a lot better than our elected leaders. They have no plan!

The best they have come up with so far is to say to the rest of the country, "Keep your hands off ". Ralph Klein, Alberta's premier can only come up with threats to keep away. Well if he had a plan, he wouldn't have to act like a 3-year old crying "mine, mine, mine".

Seeing as there is no plan, I would like to offer a regular dose of suggestions that for those tasked with actually leading citizens and governments might find the time to turn into a plan on how spend their riches.

Alberta University Enrolment

Alberta is rich. Rich in $. Rich in oil. But Alberta has numerous problems. A lot of people will draw attention to short term problems such as the cost of living or lifestyle. We live in a society of ambitious people that would sooner work hard to make more money to avoid a problem than to work harder at fixing a problem. This impacts public schools, playgrounds, neighbourhoods, and the long term health of the province. I went to university, the first in my extended family to do so. Growing up in rural Alberta, from Edson to Coronation to Red Deer university was not always a priority. Of my 20+ cousins, 9 aunts and uncles, parents, and sisters I'm the only one who has a Master's degree. I have two younger cousins that started university and one who finished. I have several cousins and my one sister started college. This sample, my first cousins, aunts, uncles, and immediate family - around 40 people here are the university attainment results:

1 graduate degree
3 undergraduate degree

3 university educated people among the 40. Less than 1% of my family has earned a university degree.

In Alberta, we often say, well that doesn't mean much. College or Technical Schools are just as important. My extended family does a bit better in this post-secondary category and because they are my family I will not being to try to talk about happiness or quality of life issues related to being educated at what level, but I will look at the province as a whole and compare that to the rest of Canada.

In Canada, the combined (college and university) attainment rate in 2001 was 39%. In Alberta, the combined rate is 33.3% - about 15% less than the country. The college/technical school attainment rate of 22% also falls short of the national average of 26% - also 15% less.

During a period where Alberta was lead by a high school drop out, Ralph Klein, university enrolment in Alberta experienced an increase of 4% between 1999-00 and 2003-04. This was 80% lower than the national increase of 20%.

The 2002-03 university participation rate (18-21) in Alberta is 16.2%; the corresponding Canadian rate is 19.7%. The provincial participation rate has increased by 1.1 percentage points between 1990-91 and 2002-03, as compared to an increase of 3.2 percentage points in Canada as a whole. Alberta’s participation rate increase was the country’s second-lowest.

Only 68% of Alberta parents aspired to have their children attend university, compared to the national average of nearly 72%. Parental aspirations for their children to attend college in Alberta, at 11.9%, were also below the national average of 16.5%.

So Alberta is wildly successful without all this university and higher learning stuff. I guess you don't have to be educated if you are born with liquid gold on that silver spoon - except that Albertans are not wildly successful. Some are - no doubt, just like people everywhere there are successful people with and without university education, but.......

In 2003, the average university graduate earned nearly $15,000 more than a college or technical school graduate and around $17,000 more than a high school graduate - every year. In Alberta, the university degree translated to a salary $13,000 higher than technical school and $25,000 higher than high school.

Posted at 04:08 PM Read More

Wed - February 15, 2006

Why is Hamas in Power?

It seems that a lot of people and even some press would like to convey that it is consistent with Palestinian desire for violence. This of course is consistent with American-style collective memory. Saddam was in power because, at least, in part the Americans helped put him there. The Taliban ruled Afghanistan because, at least, part the Americans helped put him there. These are just recent examples. Please remember Iran, Guatemala, El Salvador, Vietnam..... Well the American and Israeli record in stabilizing regions with their own sponsored violence is long and littered with thousands of innocent lives taken. What does this have to to with Palestine?

Hamas was supported by Israel in the late 1970's directly according to reports . Israel wanted a counter-balance to the PLO.

Israel was certainly funding the group at that time. One U.S. intelligence source who asked not to be named said that not only was Hamas being funded as a "counterweight" to the PLO, Israeli aid had another purpose: "To help identify and channel towards Israeli agents Hamas members who were dangerous terrorists."link
The people of Palestine voted a new government in that happens to be Hamas. Not a good thing for the ongoing peace process you might say. Well there was no ongoing peace process - the BBC also reports on this non-existent peace process. Did the people of Palestine reject the Fatah party because it was ineffective in negotiating peace with Israel - this is possible. The US and Israel, one might assume unintentionally, are partly responsible for the rise of Hamas in Palestine - have a listen to the interview with Dreyfuss for a few other arguments. I suppose that Hamas will get WMD's next.

So when people suggest that showing empathy and attempts to understand why a group of people is against another is the characteristic of a "bleeding heart liberal". They are deflecting or ignoring history and truth. Using one's memory, world history, facts, and being able to walk in others shows are desirable characteristics, if not having these makes an ignorant jerk or at least biased.

Posted at 08:34 AM Read More

Mon - February 13, 2006

Freedom of Speech

I have the right, many of us do, to walk into a crowd of angry soldiers (of any faith) and spread hatred. Do I expect that they will not lay a hand on me? I have the right to walk up to a police officer in an alley and call him or her names or insult their intelligence, religion, career choices, etc, but I don't think it is all that wise. I have the right to talk about bombs at an airport, but that would be stupid. I have the right to walk into a biker bar....

Some people argue that the press has the right or freedom to publish insulting cartoons, in fact I think a lot of people believe that the press has an unlimited right to say what they please. I will not argue that they should not have the right to publish a cartoon. However, it is well worth noting that the press is already censored, so suggesting that publishing insulting cartoons is beyond the pale is just wrong. A newspaper can publish nude photos, but won't. It can't publish pictures of naked children. European and Canadian laws don't allow questioning the holocaust.

So now urged on by, first, European papers, now Canadian and Iranian papers we are on track for a one-ups-manship contest in insults. Let's hope it doesn't get any worse. Let's hope that first arming then years later invading Afganistan and Iraq, abu Grahib, Guantanamo, torture and rendering practices, restricting Arab and Muslim movements in "so-called" free countries, and destabilizing a complete region of the world doesn't make Arabs and Muslims any more sensitive to what I hope is perceived hatred against them, cause any further over-reaction.

Of course, no over-reaction is justified, but would you stand in the middle of an angry crowd (arguably justified) and incite hatred? I encourage those that are so caught up on freedom of the press to ask why they don't see anti-semetic, nude children, anti-American, anti-Christian images and messages in their press as a balance. Those that believe that some Muslims and Arabs are over-reacting might want to ask why. Perhaps their child is in a Western prison, or sister has been tortured, or brother is missing since the some of the west has come in, and others have permitted, to "stabilize" a region.

Americans seem to accept that progress does not come without violence. From the American civil war, to slavery, to civil rights, to riots in the 80's in Los Angeles they should not be surprised by violent reactions to irresponsible actions. The home to the Rodney King riots should not question violence over cartoons in another part of the world. In Canada, we should be reaching out not inciting. We should not be exercising the right to ask a bikers girlfriend out. We may feel we can, but why?

Posted at 08:09 PM Read More

Fri - February 10, 2006

Join Ted to Save English Language

Ted Menzies, a unilingual Alberta MP, has been given the job to protect the English Language in Canada as the parliamentary secretary to Francophonie in Canada. His job can't be to help the francophones, so it must be to save English. You go Ted, the English need you - save the anglophone. I know some people that speak french maybe I could help too.

Posted at 08:21 AM Read More

Wed - February 8, 2006

Mortgage Plan

I talked to my broker today and his advice was to sit tough with the variable rate for now. This is based on the fact that my mortgage becomes open in June (3rd year) of a 5 year product with the feature of becoming open after 3 years. With a 3/4% discount on prime rate now, I would be about .1% lower than the 1 year locked rate. So this is good news. He says he can lock a rate several months in advance so in March he can help me lock a rate for July. I have a plan. I can wait until June to see what happens to the Conservative government - may be an election by then and decide on the fate of a variable rate mortgage for me.

Posted at 10:15 AM Read More

Tue - February 7, 2006

Inflation as a plan for a Conservative government

One way to raise taxes without raising taxes is of course to cause inflation. A good way to do this is to put more money into the economy. The Conservative Child Care program has the "unintended" consequences of raising taxes for young families, contributing to inflation, and raising interest rates that would hurt young families and benefit those with no mortgages and less equity investments.

Most people in their 50's and up benefit from high interest rates that are connected to inflation concerns. Most wealthy people don't care if interest rates are high - house is paid and investments can be directed to take advantage of high inflation and high interest rates. So by giving people money, a government increases taxes and support from certain segments of the population. Including the segment of the population that the child care program is supposed to benefit, but in fact may hurt more than it helps.

Here is a quote from futurecasts.com

"Monetary inflation is actually a tax by which government - by expanding the money supply - transfers wealth from its people to itself. Indeed, inflation is perhaps the most destructive tax that can be imposed - but unfortunately it is the easiest one for a government to impose on its people. It also results in the transfer of enormous amounts of wealth from the hands of ordinary people to the hands of those speculators shrewd enough to take advantage of the price volatility inflation causes in the markets."

Ok, so fight the conservatives or ride the wave and be one of those shrewd speculators. I think a bit of both is in order. What about the mortgage? What about equity markets? How long will these policies impact the economy?

Posted at 03:32 PM Read More

Get a plan, you may be in trouble

So Harper and his Conservative government wants to cancel the existing childcare plans with 10 provinces and create his own with a $100/month per child bribe to Canadians. Don't get sucked into this plan as it is most likely, if you're anything like most Canadians, that this $100 will go towards credit card companies and banks - not child care. The average Canadian with 6 year olds and younger is going to have a mortgage around what - $200,000? Their credit card debt will be around - maybe $1000. Well according to reports it is much worse than that:

"In total, (young Canadian families) now owe roughly $340,000, spread across a mortgage, three lines of credit and two credit cards. Every month, $920 goes to pay interest on the cards and bank lines, and another $1,460 toward the mortgage." report

Posted at 09:01 AM Read More

Sun - February 5, 2006

Worker Shortage in Alberta

This is real. There are not enough people to move to places of the country that most would normally not think of moving; to do jobs that pay what some people call good money; learn skills that could be so narrow as to be unemployed within the next 5 years; and live lives that seem to lead to substance abuse in a good amount of regularity. This is real.

So we have billions of dollars at stake here. No workers - no profits. Do we have a plan? No, not even close. The federal conservatives have suggested that they will help buy tools and text books for trade workers. The provincial conservatives haven't even taken the the challenge of building infrastructure (roads, airports, housing) that would make the most popular regions more livable. The corporations are paying just enough to attract people from around the world, but nobody wants to stay. There is no plan.

So my point about talent in politics is my other entry today may be proven out on this point alone. Where are the ideas? Why can't these numbskulls come up with a solution? There are lots of things that can be done in Fort McMurray and other areas. Build some roads, airports, housing and universities this should be simple.

Now think outside the box. How about a free university education (even a PhD and high school) for anybody that agrees to work these jobs from anywhere in the world - even if they don't want it. It worked for the military. One day welding - one day of economics, engineering, languages, education, literature, and so on. That will provide a long lasting - positive - impact for everybody. Come on lets get behind a plan to help build this region, these individuals, and this country.

Posted at 11:58 AM Read More

Does the cream rise to the top?

I have a simple question with no simple answer. In Canada we have three levels of government (municipal, provincial, and federal). There is also a fair amount of contempt for politics and government.

Do we have enough interested, qualified and quality people with good ideas and ideals to represent us at all three levels?

Where do our best people, politicians and bureaucrats, end up? Why? Are they in the cities? Which cities? Do our brightest and best end up in Edmonton, Victoria, Winnipeg, Regina, Quebec City, and other provincial capitals? I sense that our brightest and best end up in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Halifax, Ottawa, and Calgary - even Saskatoon - attracted there for different reasons of course.

Is there a talent vacuum in some of our governments - or all? What are we prepared to do to fix this? Can a strong federal government will top level talent represent its regions and cities? How does a provincial government balance priorities amongst its cities and rural areas? Does a provincial government have the type of talent required for success?

I'm wondering out loud and to an extreme, but why do we need provincial governments? Wouldn't a system of regions and cities (level 1) and a federal government (level 2) suit Canada? I'm sure there are some good arguments for provincial governments, but are there an equal number or even stronger arguments against them.

We are going to have the debate about the fiscal imbalance in Canada, I see provincial borders as arbitrary and perhaps unnecessary - let's have the debate.

Posted at 11:44 AM Read More

Thousands of dollars with a plan.

Well we got our Alberta Prosperity checks this week. $400/each including our child. What to do? Buy a Hummer - no. Buy a HDTV - no. Invest in a stock - maybe something in the preferred energy sectors - already done that.

Too bad the government, didn't think of this and then paid out dividends or invested in .... a plan. I have been betting on inflation, spurred by current US Imperialism, a new Canadian Conservative Government, and this brilliant plan to take short-term oil/gas surpluses in Alberta and spend $10 million to hand out these checks. Earlier I had suggested that the best plan was to leave the province, don't pay for heat and gas to commute to work and spend your money elsewhere. Well the winter is mild, so heating costs don't look to be a huge issue. We already fill our tank less than once every two weeks and so our plan is to give the bank less money and put the $1200 against our mortgage.

$1200 would buy a nice TV at Costco and further help finish our basement, but I feel the hardware store has gotten enough of my money lately, so I will choose to spend less at the bank too - by paying down the mortgage. Probably a good idea to spend my tax refund in the same way.

Posted at 11:26 AM Read More

Wed - October 19, 2005

Blame local officials game

The unbelievable tend to blame local officials for not preparing for Katrina took a twist today. The head of homeland security says it was lack of Federal (FEMA) planning that led to many of the mis-steps on the Gulf Coast.

I find the push to blame locals (of course democrats) for the disaster should bother a lot of people. I tried to understand this in the terms of New York and the Sept 11 attacks. Was there a rush to blame New Yorkers? The local government? Yes there were issues around police and fire departments and not working together, but that was supposed to be fixed. Did Bush wait for the state or the city to ask before sending in help? Should he? Both were airborne attacks that were predicted - one with a more certain date than the other. You would think the situation in New Orleans would have been easier to deal with given the experience of 9/11 and the complete predictability of what happened.

What would I want my federal government to do? Have as big a ship as possible, with as many communications, vehicles and people on board as possible that followed that storm in and helped out folks - nobody should have to ask.

Posted at 09:21 PM Read More

Wed - October 12, 2005

Accountability Day

Accountability it is easy to say. It is most likely code word for cut taxes and government responsibility to its citizens by creating a society that believes in the survival of the fittest and self. Of course it is supposed to be the official oppositions role in a parliament to hold government accountable. If they are not doing their job, should government award an Accountability Day off to citizens that would like to evaluate government priorities, emergency preparedness, foreign policy, and so on. If the opposition, even in a minority government in Canada, is so weak that they call on the auditor general to do their job, I think it is time to think about the types of opposition governments we elect in Canada. I think a government that offers citizens not just a say, but with support to have an informed opinion and feedback system may find itself surprised by the good it could to them holding power and the country.

Posted at 02:46 PM Read More

Wed - September 28, 2005

2k for Katrina and Rita Victims

Boy are Albertan's looking smug. The average Alberta household did not get slammed by a hurricane, flooded by poorly planned levees, and deserted by authorities when requiring rescue, but they do get the same amount of assistance from the Alberta government as Katrina and Rita victims are receiving from the US government. Who deserves that 2k more? I guess you get the government you elect.

Perhaps the best thinking here is that spending and saving wisely, plus a good dose of planning can save billions of dollars. Now of course, there is not a lot one can do about nature, but there are some things, specifically a good levee in New Orleans, that could make a billion dollar difference.

What will the 2k do in a Katrina victims pocket? What will the 2k in a Albertan's pocket? I wonder if you had asked a resident in New Orleans now if that small tax cut they got was really worth the hardship and 2k they are getting now. As my 4-year old sings, "It's just like a magic penny, spend it, lend it, give it away and it comes right back to you". It's mostly headed back to the government and the richest 1% of the population, so perhaps the pressure to cut the amount that goes to government should be replaced with some good long term planning and decisions that don't involve such hardship along the way.

Posted at 02:37 PM Read More

Sun - September 25, 2005

The New Plan - Pray

In Texas, in preparation for Hurricane Rita the government at all levels did do a lot of things that they say are based on lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina. This of course is a good thing. I find a couple of ironies with what is going on in politics in the US as it relates to these lessons learned.

These so called lessons learned are being acknowledged by some of the same people that over the past few weeks have been saying, "now is not the time to figure out what went wrong in the response to Hurricane Katrina". This was a typical response from governing republicans in the after-math of Katrina. The people in Texas should be thankful that the media, in this case, was not deterred from this deflection from the issues, thereby providing an opportunity to learn lessons.

The second irony is that after all the planning, the governor of Texas says "pray for Texas". Pray that the storm does not kill, pray the people don't run out of gas, pray that the government does not look bad, pray that that flooding does not affect oil shipping channels, pray for what? How about we don't let political leaders rely on prayer and deflection and focus on solutions and making things better. I would like to know what % of assistance the texas governor was leaving to god. What % would you be comfortable with?

Posted at 01:00 PM Read More

Thu - September 22, 2005

Fossil Free Economy

Now here is a plan. Sweden To Try To End Fossil Fuels Dependency By 2020

So in Alberta and Alaska and other jurisdictions where the economy is fueled by fossil fuel, rebates to consumers are the plan. While all around the world, countries and even in Canada, other provinces are saying no to fossil fuels as much as they can. The plan, become self-sufficient or as close as possible or the global forces of climate change, super powers, and energy costs will drive your country into a hole or worse. This could be your family plan and you can start today.

What can an Albertan do with the cool cash from the government? What can we do to decrease current inflationary pressure? What can we do to reduce consumption?

Posted at 07:30 PM Read More

No heat - well I got 400 bucks

A Hyundai and a Plan

Flat Tax Talk in the UK

Why tax cuts and not cuts to health premiums, school fees, busing fees, or post-secondary education?

Jurisdiction and Tragedy

Katrina Update

Venezuala Has a Plan

A billion dollar patent?

Katrina Update

Tax Cuts

Katrina - Billions of Dollars of Damage and No Plan