http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522 All real estate markets are decidedly "local," however national trends can exhibit themselves at the local level. The Central Virginia region is special, for so many reasons. ]]> http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss jim@jduncanrealestate.com © Jim Duncan Fri, 15 Apr 2005 21:32:34 -0400 Fri, 15 Apr 2005 21:32:43 -0400 iBlog 1.4.1 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C540619405/E239673195/index.html Please visit my new blog, located at http://realcentralva.com - it is going to replace this one in the next few days. I needed/wanted something a little bit more stable and robust with more support. The producer of this software has gotten many negative reviews based on their newest update, such as "My blog won't open!" This blog has become fairly important to me, and to the occasional reader here and there, and I didn't want it to suddenly go to waste. Please tell me what you like and dislike about the new blog, and I will try to make any beneficial changes. ]]> Fri, 15 Apr 2005 12:57:14 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C540619405/E239673195/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C540619405/E2143563948/index.html Blogging will be limited for the next couple of days - I am trying to migrate to a new blogging software, Wordpress , and a new address. If anybody has experience with Wordpress or Ecto, please email me! ]]> Thu, 14 Apr 2005 17:20:11 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C540619405/E2143563948/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E907415864/index.html We need help. Preferably already a licensed REALTOR, but not necessary. Must have excellent technical skills, experience with Microsoft Publisher, web data entry. Must have own transportation. Would love to have somebody with some FTP-uploading experience, but this is certainly not required; if you don't know what FTP is, don't worry about it. Desire and commitment to do things right the first time is an absolute imperative. Email me if you are interested. ]]> Wed, 13 Apr 2005 14:19:20 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E907415864/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C678138998/E2111862850/index.html Efficient Frontier
Is there a housing bubble? Why are homes in some cities outrageously expensive, while those in other cities easily affordable? In attempting to answer these questions, I found that a simple and intuitive model of the housing market does a remarkably accurate job of predicting median prices. This model allows us to think more clearly about the state of today’s residential markets.

The Onion (some bad language here)
]]> Wed, 13 Apr 2005 09:14:54 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C678138998/E2111862850/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C678138998/E645284886/index.html When the people speak ...

More than 170 area residents signed a petition in protest to the development arguing that the subdivision's main road would be too steep and too dangerous.

WCAV has more. ]]> Wed, 13 Apr 2005 09:09:38 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C678138998/E645284886/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E1743623906/index.html Having a coach can be a career-altering experience. I have been working with Carl Heimlich with C&F Mortgage for several months now, building a quality, long-term relationship that has already had a significant impact on my business. I can attribute some of the recent success of my Monthly Newsletter to his encouragement. Sharing ideas with good professionals can (and should be) a valuable experience. ]]> Wed, 13 Apr 2005 09:03:12 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E1743623906/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E751293973/index.html Check it out here. My analysis will come tomorrow. ]]> Tue, 12 Apr 2005 22:24:11 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E751293973/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1982333164/index.html "What is all the money going for?" the 60-year-old translator wondered last week. "I'm not seeing it in better services. Homeowners are becoming cash cows."

The common theme continues. This time in the Washington Post.

The biggest single reason for the tax increases is school spending, which is not surprising, since education has long dwarfed other items in local budgets. ]]> Tue, 12 Apr 2005 22:14:28 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1982333164/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E2075243626/index.html A special joint meeting of the RWSA Board of Directors, the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors, ACSA Board of Directors, and Charlottesville City Council will be held on Monday, April 18, 2005 at 10:30 a.m. in Conference Room A at the Albemarle County Office Building - 5th Street, 1600 5th Street. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the present status and future options of the Community Water Supply Plan with federal and state regulatory agencies of interest. The meeting notice has been posted on the RWSA website Home page.
Their homepage is here. ]]> Tue, 12 Apr 2005 22:06:27 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E2075243626/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1878802496/index.html Suffered a release of contract on one property only to put it back on the market and receive multiple offers. Hmm. Perhaps I should do this more often! ]]> Tue, 12 Apr 2005 15:50:10 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1878802496/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1127492108/index.html I had the occasion to visit the Northridge branch of the University of Virginia Medical Center yesterday for an injury sustained Sunday in my soccer game. In good conscience, I simply could not operate my business the same way.

Showing up at 2:10 for my 2:15 appointment, I figured I would be in good shape to meet some of my afternoon appointments (including dragging Ella along with me!). Shown to the good doctor's office about 2:20 - not bad, only five minutes tardy. The warm-up stalling act takes my blood pressure and temperature to ensure that my possibly broken toe had not affected anything else, then leaves, assuring me that she will be with me "shortly." Doctor appears at 2:35 - twenty minutes late, pokes my toe and sends to me X-Ray.

X-Ray does not take scheduled appointments - first-come, first-served. The promise of "10 minutes" morphs into 15 minutes then 10 more minutes. I leave and return this morning at 8:25 because they don't take their first appointments (I am not able to get one of those - wish they hadn't told me I wasn't special enough) until 8:30. Now I wait, because they already have a patient in front of me.

Hmmm ... this doesn't seem like a business at all! Let's try this out - ME: "M/Mrs. Buyer, I'll see you at the property sometime this afternoon. Just wait - I'll probably be there. Probably. ]]> Tue, 12 Apr 2005 08:41:04 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1127492108/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1292544/index.html Wow. $2.40/gallon for Plus. I need to get a Hybrid. Driving about 25,000 miles a year adds up! Figuring that my wife and I each drive about 30-40 miles a day simply commuting, our daily commute costs us between 8 and 12 dollars. At what point do we reach the Tipping Point where public transportation is a more efficient option than driving?

If gas prices stay at or near this level, does somebody out there have the time and knowledge to do some back-of-the-envelope math? ]]> Mon, 11 Apr 2005 19:09:47 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1292544/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1763366499/index.html At a luncheon today, we were discussing advertising strategies. Our market remains so strong and fast-moving that print media advertising is a "feel-good" measure that often is a small part of a marketing strategy designed to sell a home. Many leads come from sign calls and many come from personal websites (jduncanrealestate.com), company sites (century21manley.com) many come from corporate sites (Century 21's site). I focus much of my marketing dollars on my website and advertising at Dailyprogress.com. Other markets place much more value on sign calls as well as their weekly real estate magazine.

Just goes to show that one must learn and adapt to one's market. One size does NOT fit all. ]]> Mon, 11 Apr 2005 19:04:40 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1763366499/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E649665045/index.html In response to the request of a client a few weeks ago, I did a quick and dirty analysis of property values in the Charlottesville/Albemarle (hereinafter referred to as Charlablemarle).

In short, property values are increasing.

2004

1999

Quite a difference, huh? I chose a small sample of homes that was representative of our market - at least three bedrooms and two baths. The price per square foot is pretty interesting. ]]> Sun, 10 Apr 2005 20:50:40 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E649665045/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1926693770/index.html The mapping feature in our MLS is pretty good. Google Maps seems to take clarity through simplicity to a new level. Here is an example of how to take all the rental listings from Craigslist and make them searchable by location and price. ]]> Sun, 10 Apr 2005 07:50:00 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1926693770/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E1507738081/index.html "Bubble' is now the 14th most-common search term bringing visitors to my blog, trailing "real" "estate" "charlottesville" and "virginia." That it is ahead of "home," "realtor" and "crozet" is a bit troubling. The more people talk about an impending downturn, perhaps it may just happen. I remain confident that the Central Virginia region will continue it strong real estate market, in spite of the national potential for a leveling-off. ]]> Sat, 09 Apr 2005 22:17:46 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E1507738081/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E2072812375/index.html With the massive amount of new construction in the Central Virginia region, it may be a good idea to learn more about the standards that most homebuilders are supposed to abide by. You can start at the National Association of Home Builders' website. ]]> Sat, 09 Apr 2005 22:10:29 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1144116205/E2072812375/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E2068289446/index.html A good reminder to consumers (and other REALTORS) is that we are subject to a Code of Ethics or you can download a PDF version. ]]> Sat, 09 Apr 2005 13:03:28 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E2068289446/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1304398375/index.html Why would somebody search for this? Unethical to advertise in M.l.s? Just curious. And why did my blog come up? ]]> Sat, 09 Apr 2005 12:56:56 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1304398375/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E2132199512/index.html Educate yourself at the Realestatejournal.

...you do need title insurance. In fact, your lender will insist on it -- and you'll have to pay. The policy protects the lender (but not you) should there be any claim on the land from former owners -- say a divorced woman whose ex-husband forged her signature on a quit-claim deed, a mechanic's lien from an unpaid subcontractor or a long-lost heir. ]]> Sat, 09 Apr 2005 12:50:04 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E2132199512/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E628676381/index.html This is copied from a recent discussion (link requires paid subscription) on the Motley Fool by a poster describing his recent home sale/purchase success. My profession, and perhaps this country, would be better if more people believed and lived this way.

"My job #1 as a consumer of products or services is to educate myself on what I want to happen for me. If I fail to do that and things don't work out, I have only one person to blame, the person I see in the mirror every morning when I shave my face!" ]]> Fri, 08 Apr 2005 21:53:35 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E628676381/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E657711629/index.html Setting expectations at a reasonable level is of utmost importance. The hotel, Great Wolf Lodge, in Williamsburg, was not ready to open, and they told us that AS WE WERE CHECKING OUT. Had our expectations been set at a reasonable level, we would have been prepared. Everybody was friendly and helpful, but it is difficult to compensate for power outages, cable outages, internet outages, etc.

Being told that the hotel is designed to cater to the 2-to-14 year old crowd is a laudable. Neglecting the fact that the parents PAY FOR THE HOTEL is negligent and short-sighted. Set expectations low and plan to exceed those expectations. Simple. ]]> Fri, 08 Apr 2005 13:05:33 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E657711629/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E161220365/index.html That's what I and my family have been doing at the Great Wolf Lodge in Williamsburg, Virginia. My biggest complaint is not that the food was terrible, nor that it was overpriced - $2 for a 69-cent bag of chips. The power going out wouldn't have been as big of an issue as the dirty bathroom and smoky-smelling room.

It was the internet access. Billed as having wireless in all rooms, I was confident that I would be able to work efficiently whilst away. Ah, no. I have learned some good, somewhat geeky questions to ask next time. First - "will I be able to send outgoing email from my mail client?" The answer here is 'no;" they have not yet set up an outgoing mail server. Okay, I will use my gmail account ... that worked fine until the ISP or whomever decided to block access to it and to the Drudge Report. This experience has been absolutely infuriating. Had they mentioned that the outdoor waterpark was not yet open, we probably would not have come. Had they mentioned that their internet access was not ready for public consumption, we definitely would not have come.

All in all, the kids had fun at the indoor waterpark. I and my wife, the ones paying and recommending to our family and friends, had a much less satisfying experience. ]]> Fri, 08 Apr 2005 07:50:18 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E161220365/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C797616825/E1368612561/index.html Madison Town Council members said they had never seen as many people crowd into the town office at one time as they did Thursday night.

In the end, the public outcry got results. Members of the Planning Commission tabled a plan to greatly increase the number of parking spaces in town and instead created a study committee. The DP reports.

I don't know whether I agree with the public on this or not, but I certainly appreciate how they mobilized! ]]> Fri, 08 Apr 2005 07:37:55 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C797616825/E1368612561/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E2113672821/index.html I have been with my family for about nine hours now and have been on the phone for most of that time. Part is my fault, part is the fault of others, part is the nature of this busy business. Technology is a blessing and a curse.
]]> Wed, 06 Apr 2005 19:01:45 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E2113672821/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1078838082/index.html I am going to be out of town for the next couple of days, testing the limits of technology as I work a couple of offers. I set up an efax account, I will have my cell with me, wireless internet in the hotel, what am I missing? My family may hate my being on the cell/email on our little getaway, but as one of my clients said - "gotta get while the cotton's high!"

Ah, technology! ]]> Wed, 06 Apr 2005 08:25:30 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1078838082/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E202739027/index.html The market is odd right now. Anything in good condition with an asking price is flying off the market, frequently with multiple offers consisting of cash offers, some waiving home inspections and more. From a Seller's point of view, this is normally a good situation. From a prospective Purchaser's point of view, this can be one of the most frustrating, horrible experiences ever.

A cooldown on the horizon? ]]> Wed, 06 Apr 2005 08:23:25 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E202739027/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E995258766/index.html Real-time home appreciation ticker. ]]> Tue, 05 Apr 2005 22:48:18 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E995258766/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1287540057/index.html I somewhat obsessively check my stats for this site. I am now just over two thousand unique visitors since I started this little blog. whoo-hoo! ]]> Tue, 05 Apr 2005 21:43:16 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C1302489816/E1287540057/index.html http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E1623757754/index.html The words speak for themselves in response to a P.J. O'Rourke article I wrote about a little while ago.

Humorist P.J. O'Rourke once stated, "Very little is known of the Canadian country since it is rarely visited by anyone but the Queen and illiterate sport fishermen." Most people reading such an outlandish statement would recognize that its purpose was to make a point with exaggerated humor. Similarly, in his "Mass Transit Hysteria," on your March 16 editorial page, Mr. O'Rourke again exaggerates with genuinely amusing writing -- but with an underlying intent of serious criticism.

So, for the purpose of making an alternative point, let's treat Mr. O'Rourke's statements seriously: He says, for instance, that it would be cheaper to lease BMW SUVs for all of the folks who travel on Minneapolis's new light-rail system than it cost to build and operate the system. Well, I priced such a lease. For the 15,500 average daily riders the tab would run taxpayers $44 million a year. Each car leaser would pay an additional $2,800 a year for operating costs out of pocket. But wait! How will these cars get downtown? According to the Federal Highway Administration, highways cost an average $20.6 million per mile, while major urban interchanges cost $100 million per interchange. To replace the 12-mile light-rail system, Minneapolis taxpayers would need to build (conservatively) 12 miles of highway and one major interchange for both the airport and the Mall of Americas. Hmm, that comes out to $440 million -- before highway maintenance costs set in. Then where will all of these 15,500 BMWs park? In the new city parking lots! If built totally on the cheap, these single-level lots will cost taxpayers at least $31 million. Now, let's not forget that whereas a square foot of commercial space will bring in at least $50 in taxes per square foot, a parking lot at best brings in $3. Since our 15,500 BMWs will require almost two million square feet of parking, that equates to a loss of $91 million in tax revenue to the city of Minneapolis every year.

The rail line, which actually cost roughly $700 million, has a life expectancy of 50 years. Its operating costs are $13 million per year and farebox revenues are so far offsetting close to $10 million of that.

So how do these two options compare? Choosing the light rail's 50-year capital lifespan for both the light-rail and BMW options, and amortizing these capital costs over those 50 years, adding annual operating costs and subtracting annual tax revenue losses, and removing any effects of inflation, in present dollars light rail costs the Minneapolis taxpayers just over $17 million per year. But to get the same benefit courtesy of BMW and more highways, taxpayers would have to dish out $166 million per year.

So where did Mr. O'Rourke get the information for his criticisms? From the Heritage Foundation, an anti-rail think tank. Where did my facts come from? The Federal Highway Administration , the American Automobile Association, the Minnesota Department of Transportation, etc. When talking transportation matters, I think it best that humorists stick to bumper cars.

Janek Kozlowski
Alexandria, Va.
(Mr. Kozlowski is an officer in the U.S. military and a trained engineer with an M.B.A. In Operation Iraqi Freedom he oversaw the engineering required for all logistics in support of ground operations in the theater of operations.) ]]> Tue, 05 Apr 2005 08:08:32 -0400 http://homepage.mac.com/theduncans1/iblog/B918237522/C2095754220/E1623757754/index.html