Welcome!


Welcome to Central Virginia's first and only (that I know of, correct me if I'm wrong) real estate blog. This blog is run as a partnership/companion with my main real estate site, jduncanrealestate.com. I hope you find the information here useful and occasionally thought-provoking. The focus is local. I could blather on about national or international issues, but you can find that sort of thing anywhere.

If you get distracted, bored or are looking for homes in the Central Virginia area, please take a look at some of the current properties we are marketing. Our real estate market moves very quickly. I try to be on the cutting edge of technology while realizing that real estate is a business about people; see what some people have said about us.

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Fri - April 15, 2005

My new blog


Please visit my new blog, located at http://realcentralva.com - it is going to replace this one in the next few days. I needed/wanted something a little bit more stable and robust with more support. The producer of this software has gotten many negative reviews based on their newest update, such as "My blog won't open!" This blog has become fairly important to me, and to the occasional reader here and there, and I didn't want it to suddenly go to waste. Please tell me what you like and dislike about the new blog, and I will try to make any beneficial changes.

Posted at 12:57 PM     Read More   |

Thu - April 14, 2005

Migrating


Blogging will be limited for the next couple of days - I am trying to migrate to a new blogging software, Wordpress , and a new address. If anybody has experience with Wordpress or Ecto, please email me!

Posted at 05:20 PM     |

Wed - April 13, 2005

Assistant needed!!


We need help. Preferably already a licensed REALTOR, but not necessary. Must have excellent technical skills, experience with Microsoft Publisher, web data entry. Must have own transportation. Would love to have somebody with some FTP-uploading experience, but this is certainly not required; if you don't know what FTP is, don't worry about it. Desire and commitment to do things right the first time is an absolute imperative. Email me if you are interested.

Posted at 02:19 PM     Read More   |

A few morning links


Efficient Frontier
Is there a housing bubble? Why are homes in some cities outrageously expensive, while those in other cities easily affordable? In attempting to answer these questions, I found that a simple and intuitive model of the housing market does a remarkably accurate job of predicting median prices. This model allows us to think more clearly about the state of today’s residential markets.

The Onion (some bad language here)

Posted at 09:14 AM     Read More   |

Another example


When the people speak ...

More than 170 area residents signed a petition in protest to the development arguing that the subdivision's main road would be too steep and too dangerous.

WCAV has more.

Posted at 09:09 AM     Read More   |

Coaching


Having a coach can be a career-altering experience. I have been working with Carl Heimlich with C&F Mortgage for several months now, building a quality, long-term relationship that has already had a significant impact on my business. I can attribute some of the recent success of my Monthly Newsletter to his encouragement. Sharing ideas with good professionals can (and should be) a valuable experience.

Posted at 09:03 AM     Read More   |

Tue - April 12, 2005

CAAR's 2005 First Quarter report is released


Check it out here. My analysis will come tomorrow.

Posted at 10:24 PM     Read More   |

Property taxes


"What is all the money going for?" the 60-year-old translator wondered last week. "I'm not seeing it in better services. Homeowners are becoming cash cows."

The common theme continues. This time in the Washington Post.

The biggest single reason for the tax increases is school spending, which is not surprising, since education has long dwarfed other items in local budgets.

Posted at 10:14 PM     Read More   |

Water meeting


A special joint meeting of the RWSA Board of Directors, the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors, ACSA Board of Directors, and Charlottesville City Council will be held on Monday, April 18, 2005 at 10:30 a.m. in Conference Room A at the Albemarle County Office Building - 5th Street, 1600 5th Street. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss the present status and future options of the Community Water Supply Plan with federal and state regulatory agencies of interest. The meeting notice has been posted on the RWSA website Home page.
Their homepage is here.

Posted at 10:06 PM     Read More   |

Busy day


Suffered a release of contract on one property only to put it back on the market and receive multiple offers. Hmm. Perhaps I should do this more often!

Posted at 03:50 PM     Read More   |

How not to run a business


I had the occasion to visit the Northridge branch of the University of Virginia Medical Center yesterday for an injury sustained Sunday in my soccer game. In good conscience, I simply could not operate my business the same way.

Showing up at 2:10 for my 2:15 appointment, I figured I would be in good shape to meet some of my afternoon appointments (including dragging Ella along with me!). Shown to the good doctor's office about 2:20 - not bad, only five minutes tardy. The warm-up stalling act takes my blood pressure and temperature to ensure that my possibly broken toe had not affected anything else, then leaves, assuring me that she will be with me "shortly." Doctor appears at 2:35 - twenty minutes late, pokes my toe and sends to me X-Ray.

X-Ray does not take scheduled appointments - first-come, first-served. The promise of "10 minutes" morphs into 15 minutes then 10 more minutes. I leave and return this morning at 8:25 because they don't take their first appointments (I am not able to get one of those - wish they hadn't told me I wasn't special enough) until 8:30. Now I wait, because they already have a patient in front of me.

Hmmm ... this doesn't seem like a business at all! Let's try this out - ME: "M/Mrs. Buyer, I'll see you at the property sometime this afternoon. Just wait - I'll probably be there. Probably.

Posted at 08:41 AM     Read More   |

Mon - April 11, 2005

Gas prices


Wow. $2.40/gallon for Plus. I need to get a Hybrid. Driving about 25,000 miles a year adds up! Figuring that my wife and I each drive about 30-40 miles a day simply commuting, our daily commute costs us between 8 and 12 dollars. At what point do we reach the Tipping Point where public transportation is a more efficient option than driving?

If gas prices stay at or near this level, does somebody out there have the time and knowledge to do some back-of-the-envelope math?

Posted at 07:09 PM     Read More   |

Different markets, different strategies


At a luncheon today, we were discussing advertising strategies. Our market remains so strong and fast-moving that print media advertising is a "feel-good" measure that often is a small part of a marketing strategy designed to sell a home. Many leads come from sign calls and many come from personal websites (jduncanrealestate.com), company sites (century21manley.com) many come from corporate sites (Century 21's site). I focus much of my marketing dollars on my website and advertising at Dailyprogress.com. Other markets place much more value on sign calls as well as their weekly real estate magazine.

Just goes to show that one must learn and adapt to one's market. One size does NOT fit all.

Posted at 07:04 PM     Read More   |

Sun - April 10, 2005

Property values increasing in our market


In response to the request of a client a few weeks ago, I did a quick and dirty analysis of property values in the Charlottesville/Albemarle (hereinafter referred to as Charlablemarle).

In short, property values are increasing.

2004

1999

Quite a difference, huh? I chose a small sample of homes that was representative of our market - at least three bedrooms and two baths. The price per square foot is pretty interesting.

Posted at 08:50 PM     Read More   |

Google maps


The mapping feature in our MLS is pretty good. Google Maps seems to take clarity through simplicity to a new level. Here is an example of how to take all the rental listings from Craigslist and make them searchable by location and price.

Posted at 07:50 AM     Read More   |

Sat - April 9, 2005

A self-fulfilling prophesy?


"Bubble' is now the 14th most-common search term bringing visitors to my blog, trailing "real" "estate" "charlottesville" and "virginia." That it is ahead of "home," "realtor" and "crozet" is a bit troubling. The more people talk about an impending downturn, perhaps it may just happen. I remain confident that the Central Virginia region will continue it strong real estate market, in spite of the national potential for a leveling-off.

Posted at 10:17 PM     Read More   |

New construction standards


With the massive amount of new construction in the Central Virginia region, it may be a good idea to learn more about the standards that most homebuilders are supposed to abide by. You can start at the National Association of Home Builders' website.

Posted at 10:10 PM     Read More   |

Code of Ethics


A good reminder to consumers (and other REALTORS) is that we are subject to a Code of Ethics or you can download a PDF version.

Posted at 01:03 PM     Read More   |

Search


Why would somebody search for this? Unethical to advertise in M.l.s? Just curious. And why did my blog come up?

Posted at 12:56 PM     Read More   |

Title Insurance


Educate yourself at the Realestatejournal.

...you do need title insurance. In fact, your lender will insist on it -- and you'll have to pay. The policy protects the lender (but not you) should there be any claim on the land from former owners -- say a divorced woman whose ex-husband forged her signature on a quit-claim deed, a mechanic's lien from an unpaid subcontractor or a long-lost heir.

Posted at 12:50 PM     Read More   |

Fri - April 8, 2005

Brilliant


This is copied from a recent discussion (link requires paid subscription) on the Motley Fool by a poster describing his recent home sale/purchase success. My profession, and perhaps this country, would be better if more people believed and lived this way.

"My job #1 as a consumer of products or services is to educate myself on what I want to happen for me. If I fail to do that and things don't work out, I have only one person to blame, the person I see in the mirror every morning when I shave my face!"

Posted at 09:53 PM     Read More   |

Expectations


Setting expectations at a reasonable level is of utmost importance. The hotel, Great Wolf Lodge, in Williamsburg, was not ready to open, and they told us that AS WE WERE CHECKING OUT. Had our expectations been set at a reasonable level, we would have been prepared. Everybody was friendly and helpful, but it is difficult to compensate for power outages, cable outages, internet outages, etc.

Being told that the hotel is designed to cater to the 2-to-14 year old crowd is a laudable. Neglecting the fact that the parents PAY FOR THE HOTEL is negligent and short-sighted. Set expectations low and plan to exceed those expectations. Simple.

Posted at 01:05 PM     Read More   |

Beta testing a hotel


That's what I and my family have been doing at the Great Wolf Lodge in Williamsburg, Virginia. My biggest complaint is not that the food was terrible, nor that it was overpriced - $2 for a 69-cent bag of chips. The power going out wouldn't have been as big of an issue as the dirty bathroom and smoky-smelling room.

It was the internet access. Billed as having wireless in all rooms, I was confident that I would be able to work efficiently whilst away. Ah, no. I have learned some good, somewhat geeky questions to ask next time. First - "will I be able to send outgoing email from my mail client?" The answer here is 'no;" they have not yet set up an outgoing mail server. Okay, I will use my gmail account ... that worked fine until the ISP or whomever decided to block access to it and to the Drudge Report. This experience has been absolutely infuriating. Had they mentioned that the outdoor waterpark was not yet open, we probably would not have come. Had they mentioned that their internet access was not ready for public consumption, we definitely would not have come.

All in all, the kids had fun at the indoor waterpark. I and my wife, the ones paying and recommending to our family and friends, had a much less satisfying experience.

Posted at 07:50 AM     Read More   |

And the public speaks ...


Madison Town Council members said they had never seen as many people crowd into the town office at one time as they did Thursday night.

In the end, the public outcry got results. Members of the Planning Commission tabled a plan to greatly increase the number of parking spaces in town and instead created a study committee. The DP reports.

I don't know whether I agree with the public on this or not, but I certainly appreciate how they mobilized!

Posted at 07:37 AM     Read More   |

Wed - April 6, 2005

The ... worst ... vacation ... ever ...


I have been with my family for about nine hours now and have been on the phone for most of that time. Part is my fault, part is the fault of others, part is the nature of this busy business. Technology is a blessing and a curse.

Posted at 07:01 PM     Read More   |

Out of town


I am going to be out of town for the next couple of days, testing the limits of technology as I work a couple of offers. I set up an efax account, I will have my cell with me, wireless internet in the hotel, what am I missing? My family may hate my being on the cell/email on our little getaway, but as one of my clients said - "gotta get while the cotton's high!"

Ah, technology!

Posted at 08:25 AM     Read More   |

The market


The market is odd right now. Anything in good condition with an asking price is flying off the market, frequently with multiple offers consisting of cash offers, some waiving home inspections and more. From a Seller's point of view, this is normally a good situation. From a prospective Purchaser's point of view, this can be one of the most frustrating, horrible experiences ever.

A cooldown on the horizon?

Posted at 08:23 AM     Read More   |

Tue - April 5, 2005

I should do something like this.



Posted at 10:48 PM     |

Mini-milestone


I somewhat obsessively check my stats for this site. I am now just over two thousand unique visitors since I started this little blog. whoo-hoo!

Posted at 09:43 PM     Read More   |

Mass transit rebuttal


The words speak for themselves in response to a P.J. O'Rourke article I wrote about a little while ago.

Humorist P.J. O'Rourke once stated, "Very little is known of the Canadian country since it is rarely visited by anyone but the Queen and illiterate sport fishermen." Most people reading such an outlandish statement would recognize that its purpose was to make a point with exaggerated humor. Similarly, in his "Mass Transit Hysteria," on your March 16 editorial page, Mr. O'Rourke again exaggerates with genuinely amusing writing -- but with an underlying intent of serious criticism.

So, for the purpose of making an alternative point, let's treat Mr. O'Rourke's statements seriously: He says, for instance, that it would be cheaper to lease BMW SUVs for all of the folks who travel on Minneapolis's new light-rail system than it cost to build and operate the system. Well, I priced such a lease. For the 15,500 average daily riders the tab would run taxpayers $44 million a year. Each car leaser would pay an additional $2,800 a year for operating costs out of pocket. But wait! How will these cars get downtown? According to the Federal Highway Administration, highways cost an average $20.6 million per mile, while major urban interchanges cost $100 million per interchange. To replace the 12-mile light-rail system, Minneapolis taxpayers would need to build (conservatively) 12 miles of highway and one major interchange for both the airport and the Mall of Americas. Hmm, that comes out to $440 million -- before highway maintenance costs set in. Then where will all of these 15,500 BMWs park? In the new city parking lots! If built totally on the cheap, these single-level lots will cost taxpayers at least $31 million. Now, let's not forget that whereas a square foot of commercial space will bring in at least $50 in taxes per square foot, a parking lot at best brings in $3. Since our 15,500 BMWs will require almost two million square feet of parking, that equates to a loss of $91 million in tax revenue to the city of Minneapolis every year.

The rail line, which actually cost roughly $700 million, has a life expectancy of 50 years. Its operating costs are $13 million per year and farebox revenues are so far offsetting close to $10 million of that.

So how do these two options compare? Choosing the light rail's 50-year capital lifespan for both the light-rail and BMW options, and amortizing these capital costs over those 50 years, adding annual operating costs and subtracting annual tax revenue losses, and removing any effects of inflation, in present dollars light rail costs the Minneapolis taxpayers just over $17 million per year. But to get the same benefit courtesy of BMW and more highways, taxpayers would have to dish out $166 million per year.

So where did Mr. O'Rourke get the information for his criticisms? From the Heritage Foundation, an anti-rail think tank. Where did my facts come from? The Federal Highway Administration , the American Automobile Association, the Minnesota Department of Transportation, etc. When talking transportation matters, I think it best that humorists stick to bumper cars.

Janek Kozlowski
Alexandria, Va.
(Mr. Kozlowski is an officer in the U.S. military and a trained engineer with an M.B.A. In Operation Iraqi Freedom he oversaw the engineering required for all logistics in support of ground operations in the theater of operations.)

Posted at 08:08 AM     Read More   |

Google strikes again


The information that this company a) has and b) distributes is incredible. You may have seen their maps site. Now they have added satellite imagery. Check out Crozet. All you do is go to the site, put in an address and then click the satellite button. Wow. What happens to the information when their "do not harm" leaders are no longer in charge?

Posted at 07:47 AM     Read More   |

Mon - April 4, 2005

Tougher licensing standards? If only.


North Carolina legislators are considering a bill that would require additional training for all real estate salespersons and brokers in charge of real estate offices, and would reclassify all newly licensed agents as "provisional brokers."

Officials with the North Carolina Association of Realtors and the North Carolina Real Estate Commission say they are pursuing these changes to improve the level of professionalism in the industry, and to better serve real estate consumers.

Provisional brokers, as defined by the law, must be supervised by a "broker-in-charge," and each physical real estate brokerage office must have a designated broker-in-charge. Provisional brokers cannot become a broker-in-charge, and they must complete a post-licensing education process consisting of 90 hours of classroom instruction or equivalent training or experience within two years of licensing in order to end the provisional status of their license.

If they do not complete the training in this time, their license will be terminated, according to the proposed bill.

More strict licensing laws would benefit everybody, consumers and Realtors, in so many ways. Too many people practice this profession in the literal sense - they "practice" because they do not do it full time nor depend on it.

Posted at 10:44 PM     Read More   |

Power outage this afternoon


Yesterday it was the internet, today it was the power. An outage at one of Dominion Power's substations took down much of Crozet for about an hour today. at least it was a beautiful day!

Posted at 10:30 PM     Read More   |

Self-fulfilling prophesy?


With millions of Americans still eager to get into the housing bonanza, it's no wonder signs of overheating are popping up. At building sites from Florida to California, househunters stand in line just for the chance to buy a home. Investors are flipping properties almost overnight.

Personally, I am glad that our regional market is not close to this craziness.

Still, the pain won't be as bad as in previous slowdowns. In the last big housing recession, in the early 1990s, starts plunged 12.9% in 1990 and 16.2% more in 1991. That's not in today's forecast. And for all the media attention and party chatter about a bubble, there's little evidence that the national housing market is superinflated.

This is good news. In spite of the fact that the housing experts have been predicting the "bubble" to burst for a couple of years now. Now that rates are beginning to inch up, perhaps there will be a leveling off of prices. In my opinion, the "bubble" will not "pop" anytime soon. We shall see.

Long, informative article is here at the at the Businessweek website, worth reading in its entirety.

Posted at 09:09 PM     Read More   |

Internet connection downtime


My internet connection at home, provided by Adelphia Cable, was down last night for at least 6 hours and this morning for at least two, due most likely to the crazy high winds we experienced yesterday. Not having an internet connection really stops my business cold in a lot of ways. High speed internet is becoming as necessary as electricity - and that is mighty frightening!

Posted at 04:12 PM     Read More   |

Buyers Use Sly Tactics To Win Bidding Wars


Interesting realestatejournal.com article this morning. Not all the cited tactics are "sly," however.

Writing letters presenting buyers is not a new tactic; I do for all of my buyers (when time permits). Any edge that we can get is one that we should use.

Some realtors say a heartfelt cover letter with a sales offer can mean the difference between a seller's choosing one bid over another. With a cover letter, a potential buyer can humanize the transaction by showing they really love the house, have longed to live in a particular neighborhood or perhaps grew up in the neighborhood and now want to raise children there.

"There's always the chance the seller loves the property and the neighborhood as well, and will be swayed by someone who feels the same way about it," says Mark Englund, a real-estate agent in Reno, Nev.

Mr. Mom-ing this morning ...

Posted at 08:51 AM     Read More   |

Sun - April 3, 2005

More mold resources


Still working on my commentary to the mold story from The HooK. I have been fortunate to have experience with only one house with severe levels of mold and a couple where there was very minor evidence of mold. For the most part, I have been told that in order to get rid of most mold issues, get rid of the water.

Here are a couple of mold-related links

Stigma and Value Issues relating to mold
Mold in my home - what do I do?
Dealing with mold in your home
Mold Resources
MoldUpdate.com
MoldTips.com
Legislation update page

Posted at 07:35 AM     Read More   |

Sat - April 2, 2005

Spring Forward!


Move your clocks ahead tonight! It is actually now 12:17. Ugh. Church will be a challenge. Hopefully, soccer will not be canceled due to the rain last night!

Posted at 11:20 PM     Read More   |

Good website to learn about houses


Bob Fenwick, local contractor, inspector, radon mitigation specialist, posted this site late last year. It provides a pretty good introduction to some common issues that arise both in home inspections and simply when living in one's home.

Check out the videos section.

Posted at 10:56 PM     Read More   |

Trials and tribulations


A website is a an evolutionary process. Growing, changing and responding to client feedback. aargh. Mighty time-consuming, this website. Let's hope it becomes a profit-making venture!

Posted at 09:49 PM     Read More   |

New website is up!!


My new, redesigned website is finally up! My weekend will now be spent tweaking, editing and changing/optimizing. the switch happened this morning. Anybody who says that a website will run itself has never done it before.

Posted at 01:21 PM     Read More   |

Fri - April 1, 2005

More jobs in C'Ville soon?


From WINA -

Heritage Financial of Charlottesville has been acquired by New York-based Silvercrest Asset Management. The merger means the combined firm will have nearly $6 billion in assets. Silvercrest CEO Moffett Cochran says they hope to double the number of local employees within a short time and expand enough over the next several years to become a major local employer. Cochran, a UVA grad and native of Staunton, says the high concentration of wealth in our area made the merger logical.

Anything that could bring new jobs to the area is welcomed. WINA said this morning that one of the reasons for the merger was the high concentration of wealth in the area. Should prove interesting.

Posted at 08:41 PM     Read More   |

For the kid in all of us -



Posted at 07:19 PM     |

Website delayed


The new site is still not up. Apparently the logistics of implementing a new site and here's the rub - not losing any email - are more convoluted than anticipated. Might as well do it right the first time, and I do appreciate that attention to detail. Soon ... soon ...

Posted at 06:09 PM     Read More   |

Mold in Cville


Rather than write a quick commentary on this article, please read this article on a mold-infested house in C'ville. Mistakes were made all the way around. After processing, I will write more later.

Posted at 06:07 PM     Read More   |

Be wary of internet information!


From a website that has a Google sponsored link for "charlottesville real estate" -

The media attention is just one of many reasons that central Virginia has experienced record-breaking real estate transactions every year since 1998. According to the Charlottesville Association of Realtors, sales for 2003 increased 2.8% from the previous year's record. The first quarter of 2004 has shown that the upcoming year could very well be another record breaker with sales above this time last year. Charlottesville house prices typically range from $180,000 to $300,000 for a contemporary 3-4 bedroom home. Charlottesville has many exquisite historic and custom built-homes, these range from $500,000 to over $1,000,000. The median price for a home in the Charlottesville metro area is $122,400, according to the 2000 census.

Wrong. Old. Irrelevant data. Who cares what the median house price was in 2000???

Posted at 12:27 PM     Read More   |

Another reason people come to Central Virginia


Do not underestimate the value of having top-notch medical services readily available.

The University of Virginia School of Medicine has been ranked #26 in the nation for its research. In the latest edition of U.S. News & World Report, UVA had the only school in the Commonwealth that cracked the nation's top 30 among medical research institutions. The Dean of the Medical School, Dr. Arthur Garson, says he's proud that UVA continues to be among the top 20% of American medical schools. From WINA

Our medical facilities are a large factor when some people choose to relocate to our region, particularly for senior citizens or anyone who is planning for the future.

Posted at 12:18 PM     Read More   |

Website is going live today!


We are switching website providers today. Depending on how long Network Solutions takes to replicate the name changes throughout the internet, we should be up very soon! My biggest concern is the potential interruption of our email. Fingers crossed, we move forward.

Posted at 11:40 AM     Read More   |

Thu - March 31, 2005

Fluvanna says No to Zion Crossroads development


The Fluvanna County Planning Commission didn’t think so, and voted unanimously at its Monday, March 21 meeting to recommend denial of Frank Ballif’s request for a rezoning that would have allowed more than 60 residential lots on 32.5 acres on the east side of Rte. 631 (Troy Road) approximately .66 mile from the intersection with 250 (Richmond Road). The site is adjacent to the Zion Crossroads Industrial Park and within the Zion Crossroads Community Planning Area.

Confronted with sharp criticism from both planners and the public, Southern Development withdrew the application on Wednesday, March 23.

The Central Virginian is on the ball this week.

Posted at 09:06 PM     Read More   |

Higher density growth in Louisa


Louisa County property owners of A-2 zoned parcels can now build more homes by right on them as a result of a resolution passed by the Louisa County Board of Supervisors following a public hearing on Wednesday, Mar. 23.

Landowners who own property that was zoned A-2 on or before Dec. 18, 1997 can now divide their tract into a maximum of 18 1.5-acre lots without having to seek special permission. However, any land that was zoned A-2 after that date must continue to adhere to the county’s parent parcel regulations.

This measure is in direct contrast to the direction that Albemarle has been heading for years. Louisa does not yet have the problems that Albemarle/Cville have shown, but it certainly does have promise.

Ethan Call, a real estate broker and developer who lives in the Mountain Road district, told board members that the construction industry is Louisa County’s largest employer, based on information he obtained from a U. S. Labor Department report.

The supervisors’ responsibility, he said, is to determine a reasonable number of lots.
Addressing affordable housing, Gentry said that other localities are dealing with the same issues. He recommended further study to ensure that the county handles affordable housing correctly.

All in all, the Central Virginian has a very informative article on this issue. Read it quickly; I don't know if they archive their links.

Posted at 09:00 PM     Read More   |












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