asteroid 2004 MN4 . . . [back down to torino 1] 



[FINAL UPDATE (?)--back down to <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html" target="NewWindow">torino 1</a>. just as well.]


ah, but <a href="http://homepage.mac.com/sparrowsfall/iblog/B2087645656/C28239765/E808227246/index.html" target="NewWindow">my christmas</a> is getting better and better. asteroid 2004 MN4 has a <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html" target="NewWindow">current torino risk</a> of 4, count 'em, 4! and if i understand the JPL chart correctly, we have a good 38 shots at getting whacked by it, most likely being Friday, April 13, 2029. (1 chance in 63)

<a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/" target="NewWindow">a voyage to arcturus</a>, of course, makes me look like a lemur on the intelligence scale. but his <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/2004_12_01_avoyagetoarcturus_archive.html#110398231241684440" target="NewWindow">estimates</a> of the 'most likely' in a very unlikely shot at armageddon seem to indicate a possible strike in the general area of india or the indian ocean. casualty count is impossible to guess, at twenty-five years' distance--hey, india and pakistan might take each other out long before then--but a 440 m. diameter burst of snow, rock, and ice in the atmosphere anywhere between pakistan and bangladesh would be a seven figure disaster for human beings.

the object had a risk of 2 of 10 when it was announced yesterday--the most dangerous objects to date ranked only 1 of 10--so the upping of the risk to a 4 makes a very impressive free-footin' mountain indeed.

it certainly doesn't appear to be a species-threatening event, but it would be a colossal humanitarian catastrophe. if it maintained its structural integrity and struck ocean, the number of fatalities in the indian ocean basin would be incalculable, as huge tsunamis raked the coastlines from south africa to australia to indonesia to arabia. even occurring in the third world, it would probably cause a massive worldwide depression, the usual religious convulsions--hey, add 2000 to 29* and guess whose 2000th execution date anniversary we're approximately celebrating--and disorder and tens of millions (or more) of refugees across half the globe.

also in less than twenty years india may well be the locus for most of the software development and IT outsourcing on the planet. no problem for the information economy there.


UPDATE: thanks, <a href="http://avoyagetoarcturus.blogspot.com/" target="NewWindow">voyage</a>, for the link. congrats on the instalanche!

UPDATE 2: chances <a href="http://blogs.salon.com/0001561/2004/12/25.html#a6527" target="NewWindow">up to</a> 1 in 45. most excellent! why do i say most excellent? well, (a) ambrose bierce ain't got nothin' on me, and (b) if we go**, so much the better for the biosphere, and (c) if we get our act together and corral the crazies and cooperate to save humanity, so much the better for us (and the preferred outcome for those who want to live, of course,) but if not that (see (a)) there's always (b) again.

UPDATE 3: of course, an object of this modest size would be (relatively) easy to destroy, or at least disrupt into building-sized shrapnel of limited hazard to the earth. an unmanned craft could probably plant two or more nuclear weapons at various points on the surface, cracking it to pieces, or largely vaporizing it if it's mostly icy in composition. if it were more durable, a manned expedition, a la bruce willis and <a href="http://imdb.com/title/tt0120591/?fr=c2l0ZT1kZnxteD0yMHxzZz0xfGxtPTIwMHx0dD1vbnxwbj0wfHE9YXJtYWdlZGRvbnxodG1sPTF8bm09b24_;fc=1;ft=37;fm=1" target="NewWindow">armageddon</a>, could doubtless plant a large weapon or weapons beneath the surface. as long as the body were disrupted into fragments that would explode in the upper atmosphere (like the 5 m <a href="http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_close_041222.html" target="NewWindow">2004 YD5</a>***,) absolute destruction would not be necessary (it being better to be hit in the head with a handful of gravel than one big rock.) but which country will be tapped to bear the major costs and provide the technical know-how? and which one will no one thank. how to choose, how to choose.


__________________
*J.H.C.'s birthday being generally held to 4 BC. i was hoping, in the interests of starting an internet rumor and panic, that easter sunday would follow 4-13-29. alas, 4-13 is not good friday. easter falls on april 1 that year. however, if you add the days taken off the julian calendar by modern (gregorian) calculations--which i believe is twelve days at this point--we find that . . . well, it gets confusing, and depends on a lot of if-work. but the julian calendar makes it a real close match. let the freakout begin! for the sake of hysteria, let's call julian good friday april 11, and easter sunday, julian, april 13. close enough for an internet rumor.

**yes, i know, not species threatening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

***and it's just a little alarming we missed that. more resources need to be spent on looking for <a href="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/" target="NewWindow">NEO</a>s. the wrong object bursting over or hitting the wrong country at the wrong time could start a nuclear conflict, a fact that's been recognized since the 1980s. (see Sagan's <a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0345331354/qid=1104062907/sr=2-1/ref=pd_ka_b_2_1/104-1122314-2714364" target="NewWindow">Cosmos</a>, <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=%22near+earth+objects%22+%2B+%22nuclear+war%22&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8" target="NewWindow">et. al</a>.)




UPDATE 4: coincidentally enough, overnight there was an example of what could happen--on a much smaller scale . . .

<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/12/26/asia.quake/index.html" target="NewWindow">Asia quake, tsunamis kill 4,800</a>

Sunday, December 26, 2004 Posted: 11:08 AM EST (1608 GMT)

(CNN) -- Massive tsunamis triggered by the largest earthquake to shake the planet in over 40 years have wiped out coastal areas across southeastern Asia, killing more than 4,800 people -- most of them in Sri Lanka and India.

The initial quake, measuring 8.9 in magnitude, struck about 100 miles (160 km) off the coast of Indonesia's Sumatra island around 7 a.m. Sunday (0000 GMT), according to the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center.

It is the fifth largest earthquake in recorded history, according to the NEIC.

Sri Lankan military authorities are reporting over 2,400 people killed, most of them in the eastern district of Batticaloa. Several districts in the country's south have still not reported casualty figures, and authorities fear the death toll could rise.

Officials, however, said thousands were missing and more than a half million had been displaced.

..............


India has agreed to help assist Sri Lanka, sending two naval ships to the resort town of Galle, in the south, and Trincomalee, according to Colombo officials. Indian aircraft will bring in relief supplies to the country on Monday.

India itself is reeling from the aftermath of the quake and tsunami. Indian officials said at least 1,800 Indians were killed as a result of the massive waves. A resident of Chennai (formerly Madras) in Tamil Nadu district -- the hardest hit area -- said he witnessed several people being swept away by a tidal wave there.

Along India's southeastern coast, several villages appeared to have been swept away, and thousands of fishermen -- including 2,000 from the Chennai area alone -- who were out at sea when when the massive waves swept across the waters have not returned.

Along the coast, the brick foundations of village homes were all that remained.

Interior Minister Shivraj Patil told CNN 700 people were killed in Tamil Nadu state and 200 in Andhra Pradesh. Poor communications with India's remote Andaman and Nicobar islands, which were closer to the quake's epicenter, has prevented any reports of damage and casualties. Most of the aftershocks have been centered off those islands.

Thai authorities say more than 250 are feared dead, and hundreds are missing. One witness said Phuket's famed Laguna Beach resort area is "completely gone." The area provides 40 percent of Thailand's $10 billion annual tourist income.

Among the missing were a number of scuba divers exploring the Emerald Cave off Phuket's coast.

Phuket's airport, which closed down when its runways flooded, reopened, but most roads remained closed, as officials tried to assess the damage, fearing structural damage to buildings closer to the shore.

.................

Over 500 people were killed Indonesia by the quake and the following tsunamis -- many of them in Aceh, in northern Sumatra, about 100 miles from the quake's epicenter, according to local reports.

"We still haven't got any reports from the western coast of Aceh, which is closest to the epicenter so officials are bracing themselves for a lot more bad news," said journalist John Aglionby in Jakarta.

The earthquake is classified as "great" -- the strongest possible classification given by the NEIC.

....................


It was the strongest earthquake to hit since March 1964, when a 9.2 quake struck near Alaska's Prince William Sound. The strongest recorded earthquake (since 1899, when such measurements began) registered 9.5 on May 22, 1960, in Chile.

Sunday's earthquake is the fifth strongest in that period.

CNN Correspondents Aneesh Raman in Phuket, Satinder Bindra in Colombo and Suhasini Haidar in Chennai contributed to this report. 

Posted: Sat - December 25, 2004 at 03:19 PM             |

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