RICHMOND, Va. - Consumer confidence indexes help move stock markets, influence corporate decisions and alter governments' economic outlooks. But a study says they're essentially useless for forecasting Americans' spending patterns.

The two closely tracked indexes — from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board (news - web sites) — may reveal the mood of Americans when they are surveyed, but they don't predict whether people will spend more or less, said Dean Croushore, an economics professor at the University of Richmond.

"People may say they're dissatisfied with the economy, but then they go out and buy a car," Croushore said.

Croushore said that when he began his study, he believed the confidence readings had value and that his analysis might show they were more insightful than perceived.

"But the more investigation I did, trying all different types of models to make them work better, they kept getting worse and worse," he said. "I think the reason, a lot of times, is that consumer confidence just reflects the past. You lose your job, your confidence falls. There's not really anything new there. What we really want are indicators that look forward."...