This is a week after a meltdown of the financial markets. If people are not worried, they should be. Let's see what that has done to the electoral college. Remember whoever gets 270 votes wins.

Maps

CNN's map CNN has reduced the number of votes it has given to Obama. It now shows 223 for Obama and 200 for McCain with 115 toss up votes that could go either way. The toss up states now are: Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. Missouri, which was a toss up, is not predicted to go with McCain.

MSNBC's Map (scrolls down to map) MSNBC has increased the predicted votes both candidates so Obama is shown with 233 votes and McCain with 227 leaving 78 as toss up. The toss up states are Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Virginia. New Mexico has moved into the Obama column. The nice thing about this map is you can try various scenarios.

Washington Post's Map shows Obama with 168 and McCain with 174 and 196 in flux. They do not appear to have changed their map this week.

New York Times Map They have not changed their map showing Obama with 238 and McCain at 227 with 73 toss up votes. The toss up states are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire and Virginia. Florida is said to be moving toward McCain and Virginia, which had been in the McCain column is no in flux again.

Congressional Quarterly's Maps As noted last week, there are a number of maps here. As they did last week, they predict 255 for Obama, 213 for McCain, and 70 toss up. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida are said to be in flux. They have moved Virginia into the McCain column and set Florida up for grabs.

Things are so volatile that i am not going to try to analyze them.

The full results for the New York Times/CBS poll are available.I spend some time comparing responses between the two candidates. There are a series of parallel questions about views towards Obama and McCain.



Obama has his work cut out for him. People understand that he has a better understanding of what their lives are like and shares their values, but they do not believe he is prepared enough for the job of president. They believe that Obama has a better handle on the economy, but that McCain has a better handle on the war.

The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Obama 48% vs McCain 44% for the period 9/15-17. They note that this is first time Obama has been significantly ahead in two weeks. This is consistent with the findings in the NY Times/CBS poll I mentioned at greater length in today's Presidential Election entry. Importantly, consumer confidence continues to fall with 78% now pessimistic, an increase of 8% in just two days.

Simulated markets have proven to be good predictors of outcome. They tend to summarize a lot of information efficiently. Be aware that they do change so if you take my links, your numbers will be different than mine were when I wrote this.

The CNN Political market now gives Obama a 65% chance of winning with Obama having gone up today. Mostly likely this results from the changes in consumer confidence and the news from Wall Street. It is consistent with the two polls. In a wild market, 5% are predicting that McCain will drop Palin from the ticket. This will be an interesting market to watch. While I doubt he will drop her, it does act as a proxy on her influence.

Some state markets are also interesting:

• Interestingly, the market gives Obama a 52% chance in Ohio, which is an increase of 3% today.
• Obama got a 69% probability in Michigan according to the market.
• McCain is at 58% in Florida, which is consistent with my view that he will take that state.
• Minnesota is more positive for Obama than the polls with 74% for Obama.
• Virginia, another swing state, shows Obama at 54%.
• Oddly, Obama is down 6% from yesterday in Colorado, but still is given a 58% chance of winning the state.
• Obama is favored in Nevada with 58% predicted, an increase of 2% today.

The Iowa Political market gives Obama 52% and McCain 48% as of closing last night.

While the markets have a good record at prediction, I think the numbers in the CNN markets for Obama may be high and the race is actually tighter than shown there. I expect a number of changes over the next month. The debates will be important and how the candidates respond to the growing economic crisis.

This is one week after the Republican convention and the first review of the Electoral College maps. McCain and Palin got a bounce as expected. Perhaps more than expected in some polls. It is time to look again at how the Electoral College maps to get a handle on chances. Remember whoever gets 270 votes wins. 

Maps

CNN's map last week, Obama had 243 likely votes and 106 were too close too close to call. CNN has not changed its predictions. The toss up states remain are: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. 

MSNBC's Map (scrolls down to map) now shows Obama with 228 votes and McCain with 200 leaving 110 as toss up. Both Obama and McCain showing gains in Electoral votes. The toss up states are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida. The nice thing about this map is you can try various scenarios.

Washington Post's Map shows Obama with 168 and McCain with 174 and 196 in flux. They do not appear to have changed their map this week.

New York Times Map last week gave 251 to Obama, 227 to McCain, and 60 toss up. This week they reduced their Obama numbers to 238 and left McCain at 227 with 73 toss up votes. Last week they gave Virginia to Obama, but have moved it to a toss up. The other toss up states are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire.

Congressional Quarterly's Maps As noted last week, there are a number of maps here. As they did last week, they predict 255 for Obama, 213 for McCain, and 70 toss up. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida are said to be in flux.

Overall, there is some tightening of the race, but it is less that would be predicted from press reports. Some comments on toss up states.

Nevada is a toss up for every report except the Wasington Post, which puts it in the McCain camp. A large rural vote is key here.

Everybody sees Colorado, with 9 votes, as a toss up. A large urban core along the Rockies, large Hispanic population, and very rural in the rest of the state. It looks like California, Utah, and Kansas all rolled together.

New Mexico seems to be moving slowly towards Obama. Gov Richardson, who is Hispanic and very popular, seems to be moving the state.

Michigan, which is in terrible shape economically, seems to be moving slowly towards Obama as well. The economy, a large black population around Detroit are offset by the snowmobiling western part of the state. The Washington Post reports that Obama's Lakes plan could be key.

Ohio remains an enigma. With the urban areas going for Obama and the rural and southern areas tending towards McCain, it is anybody's guess. One interesting factor is that there is a Christian group that has an ad for Obama. Will it have an effect on this state that voted so closely for Bush in 2004?

Virginia, with its 13 votes, is shown as toss up, Obama territory, and McCain territory by the maps. This is one to watch.

Florida was Gore's nemesis in 2000. Like Virginia, it has been in flux on the maps and there seems to be little agreement. Obama is holding his debate practice sessions this week in Tampa and some feel this may move some voters in his direction if the press is positive. Roll the dice and the winner is?

Congressional Quarterly has comments on the effects of the so call Palin bounce. While they found a bounce, it was a small effect and most likely doesn't change the outcome of the race despite what many have noted.

Today's Gallup Tracking Poll shows that there was no disportioncate shift in white women's preference as a result of the Palin selection as reported by some in the press. The note that "More generally, the data show that McCain gained four points among all white voters (both men and women), and Obama lost one point. (For all voters, regardless of race or gender, the race shifted from a 46% to 44% advantage for Obama in Aug. 20-22 polling to a 49% to 44% advantage for McCain after the conventions. That's a gain of five points for McCain and a loss of two for Obama.)"

The polling based maps have not really changed enough to report on again. The CNN Political Market, when I looked at it just now, predicts a 66.6% chance that Obama will be the next President, which is down a little from two days ago. (It will surely have changed if you look at it.) The Iowa Political Market is closer predicting a 52.5% chance that Obama will win, which is also down from two days ago. Is this the bounce from the Republican convention or is the race tightening that much?

Markets are often good at predicting election outcomes. The CNN Political Market, when I looked at it just now, predicts a 67.5% chance that Obama will be the next President. (It will surely have changed if you look at it.) The Iowa Political Market is closer predicting a 54% chance that Obama will win. Along with the polling data, I will be watching these two closely.

The press keeps looking at irrelevancies. It does not matter who wins the beauty contest or even the popular vote. What matters, until we directly elect a President, is who wins the electoral college votes. As a sage said, all politics are local. It is these local issues that have national impact that will most likely determine who wins in November. So, I am spending time looking at the map. Remember whoever gets 270 votes wins. 

Maps

CNN'smap shows Obama with 243 likely votes and 106 too close to call. I will fudge and say he needs 35 more votes from the toss up states to win. Lets look at the states that are toss up? They are: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio (NOT AGAIN), New Hampshire, Virginia, and (drum roll) Florida. 

MSNBC's Map (scrolls down to map) shows Obama with 187 votes and McCain with 136 leaving 217 as toss up. The same states as CNN's plus New Mexico, Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Vermont, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska as toss ups. I don't think most of the additional ones are in fact toss ups. The nice thing about this map is you can try various scenarios.

Washington Post's Map shows Obama with 168 and McCain with 174 and 196 in flux. It is the only source that gives the edge to McCain at this time. Just to keep the game interesting, it has a different set of toss ups from MSNBC's. It has all of CNN's toss ups plus Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and North Carolina. I doubt most of these are really toss up states. More later.

New York Times Map gives 251 to Obama, 227 to McCain, and 60 toss up. They give Florida to McCain and Virginia to Obama. The toss up states are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire.

Congressional Quarterly's Maps are always excellent. There are a number of maps here, but you have to do some navigation for all of them. (There are a number of other maps on this site.) They predict 255 for Obama, 213 for McCain, and 70 toss up. Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida are said to be in flux. Their Purple Nation map is interesting because it gives information for the last five elections.

Toss Up States

I am not going to look at every state that is a toss up on one map but concentrate on the New York Times list plus Florida. The views are entirely my own subjective views.

I have lived in Oregon and it is a funny state politically. The big cities, especially Portland and Eugene tend to vote Democratic. The southern part of the state is more like Kentucky or Tennessee. Still, Oregon has consistently voted for Democrats for President in every election since 1988. I suspect it will this time as well.

Nevada has voted Republican in the last two elections, but voted for Clinton both times. Democrats may be better organized. Also, Nevada has a larger Hispanic population that tends to vote Democratic according to the New York Times. With five votes, it would be nice for Obama to win it, but it is not crucial.

I have lived in Colorado and it is a very mixed state with a large metropolitan area nestled up to the Rockies and very western rural elsewhere. It may in fact be three states with the eastern part similar to Kansas, the metro strip, and the old mountain west. Colorado has only voted Democratic once since 1988 (for Clinton in 1992.) Still, the Republican margins have been shrinking. There is a large Hispanic vote as well, which nationally is tending to view the Democrats more favorably. The Democrat's Convention didn't hurt their chances. It was well run and had little local turmoil compared to Minneapolis. The outdoor speech before 80,000 was both risky because of weather and highly successful. Colorado could go to Obama. There are 9 votes here.

New Mexico is very close, but I think Bill Richardson will pull this one over to Obama. He is Hispanic and very popular. Richardson had a larger majority the second time he ran for governor than the first. There are 5 votes here.

Michigan is another matter. I think the DNC, which tends to shoot itself in the foot, was foolish to deal with them as they did in the primaries. Michigan has voted Democratic in four of the last five elections. The unemployment (see below) is as bad as it gets. McCain has made some real gaffs here as well telling people that they have to get used to it. Given the large blue collar vote, I think Biden could be important here. There are 17 votes.

Ohio is also up for grabs as usual. The Republican party has had more than its share of scandals in Ohio and unemployment is higher than the national average. On the other hand, there seems to be a tendency for this State to vote against its own self-interests. They voted for Bush twice despite having been badly treated by his administration. There are 20 votes here.

I give Florida to the Republicans. They only voted for Clinton once (96) and the rest of the time voted Republican. Youth also seems to be a factor in this election with a tendency for younger voters to prefer Obama. There are lots of gray hairs in Florida. Also, there is the DNC madness here as well. I think McCain will get the 27 votes.

I have not idea what will happen in New Hampshire.

Unemployment

My current thinking is that if Obama takes Michigan and Ohio, he has a good chance of getting elected. People vote their pocket books to a certain extent. So lets take a look at unemployment as a proxy for pocket books. I am still hunting for 2008 data, but here is the Bureau of Labor Statistics map for 2007. Michigan is the only state with more than 7% unemployment and Ohio has over 5%.



In the end, it all boils down to two states, Michigan and Ohio. Watch both candidates put lots of effort there. McCain has the harder job given both his public statements about economics and a general obvious fact that these two states have done poorly in the last eight years. On the other hand, Michigan Democrats are probably still angry about how the DNC kept them out of the primary process and Ohio has consistently voted against the self interest of its population.