Polls and Political Markets
18/Sep/08
The Gallup daily tracking
poll shows Obama 48% vs McCain 44%
for the period 9/15-17. They note that this is
first time Obama has been significantly ahead in
two weeks. This is consistent with the findings in
the NY Times/CBS poll I mentioned at greater
length in
today's Presidential Election
entry.
Importantly, consumer confidence continues to fall
with 78% now pessimistic, an increase of 8% in just
two days.
Simulated markets have proven to be good predictors of outcome. They tend to summarize a lot of information efficiently. Be aware that they do change so if you take my links, your numbers will be different than mine were when I wrote this.
The CNN Political market now gives Obama a 65% chance of winning with Obama having gone up today. Mostly likely this results from the changes in consumer confidence and the news from Wall Street. It is consistent with the two polls. In a wild market, 5% are predicting that McCain will drop Palin from the ticket. This will be an interesting market to watch. While I doubt he will drop her, it does act as a proxy on her influence.
Some state markets are also interesting:
While the markets have a good record at prediction, I think the numbers in the CNN markets for Obama may be high and the race is actually tighter than shown there. I expect a number of changes over the next month. The debates will be important and how the candidates respond to the growing economic crisis.
Simulated markets have proven to be good predictors of outcome. They tend to summarize a lot of information efficiently. Be aware that they do change so if you take my links, your numbers will be different than mine were when I wrote this.
The CNN Political market now gives Obama a 65% chance of winning with Obama having gone up today. Mostly likely this results from the changes in consumer confidence and the news from Wall Street. It is consistent with the two polls. In a wild market, 5% are predicting that McCain will drop Palin from the ticket. This will be an interesting market to watch. While I doubt he will drop her, it does act as a proxy on her influence.
Some state markets are also interesting:
- Interestingly, the market gives Obama a 52% chance in Ohio, which is an increase of 3% today.
- Obama got a 69% probability in Michigan according to the market.
- McCain is at 58% in Florida, which is consistent with my view that he will take that state.
- Minnesota is more positive for Obama than the polls with 74% for Obama.
- Virginia, another swing state, shows Obama at 54%.
- Oddly, Obama is down 6% from yesterday in Colorado, but still is given a 58% chance of winning the state.
- Obama is favored in Nevada with 58% predicted, an increase of 2% today.
While the markets have a good record at prediction, I think the numbers in the CNN markets for Obama may be high and the race is actually tighter than shown there. I expect a number of changes over the next month. The debates will be important and how the candidates respond to the growing economic crisis.