Thursday - April 19, 2007

Lasers, Germs, and Nanotubes:  Introduction

Preface

Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel describes how some civilizations came to dominate the modern world while others did not.  My goal in the next few blog posts is to present a similar, theoretical argument about the how some civilizations might come to dominate the galaxy while others might not, although written in the past tense as if it had already happened.  Consider this a thought experiment about a future where space travel is realized, but the Singularity is not.  Or, if you like, speculative nonfiction.

Prologue

While visiting Earth, one of the most remote and, until recently, least modern planets in the galaxy, I met a man named John while walking along the coast of southern North America.  A Human, he could have easily overtaken me, but he slowed and we walked together for several thousand seconds.  He asked me what I was doing on Earth, and I explained I was conducting biological research on Earth's coastal bivalves, a rare animal form known to have appeared natively on only three worlds.  He pried a little and I told him about animal diversity and why some body plans appear only rarely, while others are nearly universal.  He said that reminded him of his own species predicament, how Humans had a rare body chemistry that made it difficult for them to endure space travel and the environments of other worlds.  But, he made sure to note, despite this humans had a very similar level of intelligence to other intelligent species in the galaxy, which led him to ask the question that inspired this work:  why did the Gunkins create so much technology and bring it to Earth, while Humans created relatively no technology of our own?

I had no ready answer for him, and his question has continued to gnaw at me over the past few centuries since I last visited Earth, long after John died and my research there was done.  I've spent much of that time, on and off, considering the issue and I believe I have found an answer, but before I can get to it, I must first consider some of the answers I disproved, because they are commonly given as solutions to this puzzle.

The most common argument is that some species are smarter than others.  While it is no doubt true that some species are smarter than others, history shows that average species intelligence was not a significant factor in determining which civilizations came to dominate the galaxy.  For example, Humans are easily more intelligent than Jitnurys, yet it was the Jitnurys' who conquered Earth and not the Humans who conquered Ituria.  How, then, did the less intelligent Jitnurys defeat the more intelligent Humans?

Another common argument is planetary environment.  Planets with oxygen-rich environments promote lazy plants and animals that do not have to fight for their survival, so the argument goes, while sulfur-rich planets provide a stimulating effect to the inhabitants.  But this argument could just as easily be reversed, to say that life on oxygen-rich planets had the advantage because the plants and animals there had the free time, once they achieved a sufficient level of intelligence, to develop the technology to assert galactic power, whereas life on sulfur-rich planets, even after achieving sufficient intelligence, had to struggle to metabolize sufficient energy to survive.  Since we can draw two equally likely conclusions from the same evidence, it seems unlikely that such arguments about planetary environment had a strong effect on the development of technology.

A third common argument is that body chemistry played the deciding role, with either carbon or silicon playing the role of fundamental organic element.  Typically, the element argued to provide advantage depends on the composition of the arguer.  But again, although silicon-based life came to dominate the galaxy, carbon-based species like the Autiumyannias demonstrate that body chemistry does not prevent non-silicon-based species from developing space travel, high-energy weapons, or the instantaneous communication channels necessary to administrate a multi-system government.  Thus even differences of organic chemicals do not adequately answer John's question.

Thus we come to what seems the most likely argument.  Some species developed lasers, germs, and nanotubes, allowing them to subjugate and outpace other species who had only only mass weapons, poor medical care, and little knowledge of advanced materials.  But as clear as that is, why did some species have these advantages while others did not.  To find out, we must go back millions of years to the origins of intelligent life in the known galaxy, to see when and why some species found advantages while others did not.  We want to find out why it was the Gunkins, and not the Humans, who had the lasers, spaceships, and germs.