Iraq Is Already Partitioned - Get Used To It
Our politicians are busy trying to
figure out what we want to hear about Iraq, so they can say that back to
us.
President Bush still defines "victory in Iraq" as Iraq as one country, at peace with and governing itself.
If that is victory, victory is impossible. Iraq has already partitioned itself. In the north, Kurdistan is a de facto country. It has its own flag, borders, army, internal security force, and government. The Iraq flag is literally forbidden to be flown. Baghdad officials may not enter Kurdistan without the permission of the Kurd government.
The south has become "Shia-stan." The army and police obey the local rather than the national authorities, and it is locally governed.
Then there is the battleground, the "Sunni Triangle." The Sunnis are unhappy at losing their disproportionate share of government control. All offers of negotiated settlement have been refused. The Shia say "You want to fight? Fine with us, we have LOTS of scores to settle." Hence, civil war since 2004. Army and police units carry out campaigns for their sect, not their country. There is a lot of fighting to do before the Sunni learn what piece of the pie they are going to be stuck with. So, at this point, the Prime Minister of Iraq is basically mayor of the Green Zone.
But Mr. Bush is playing for time in changing or not changing his Iraq strategy. A unified Iraq at the end of all this is no longer possible, but I don't think that's why he stays in anyway. I think it has to do with oil and corporate sponsors. These include Saudi Arabia, which recently "summoned" Vice President Cheney for reasons not divulged.
The corporate sponsors have a lot to worry about. If the American military leaves, the corporate sponsors will have to privately fund the protection of their investment, and have more accountability for their actions. If the Saudis fund the Sunnis, then we are on the slippery slope to regional war, starting with the Saudis and Iran.
George W. will not be able to move forward with any plans until the corporate sponsors let him know what to think. And they are still deciding.
President Bush still defines "victory in Iraq" as Iraq as one country, at peace with and governing itself.
If that is victory, victory is impossible. Iraq has already partitioned itself. In the north, Kurdistan is a de facto country. It has its own flag, borders, army, internal security force, and government. The Iraq flag is literally forbidden to be flown. Baghdad officials may not enter Kurdistan without the permission of the Kurd government.
The south has become "Shia-stan." The army and police obey the local rather than the national authorities, and it is locally governed.
Then there is the battleground, the "Sunni Triangle." The Sunnis are unhappy at losing their disproportionate share of government control. All offers of negotiated settlement have been refused. The Shia say "You want to fight? Fine with us, we have LOTS of scores to settle." Hence, civil war since 2004. Army and police units carry out campaigns for their sect, not their country. There is a lot of fighting to do before the Sunni learn what piece of the pie they are going to be stuck with. So, at this point, the Prime Minister of Iraq is basically mayor of the Green Zone.
But Mr. Bush is playing for time in changing or not changing his Iraq strategy. A unified Iraq at the end of all this is no longer possible, but I don't think that's why he stays in anyway. I think it has to do with oil and corporate sponsors. These include Saudi Arabia, which recently "summoned" Vice President Cheney for reasons not divulged.
The corporate sponsors have a lot to worry about. If the American military leaves, the corporate sponsors will have to privately fund the protection of their investment, and have more accountability for their actions. If the Saudis fund the Sunnis, then we are on the slippery slope to regional war, starting with the Saudis and Iran.
George W. will not be able to move forward with any plans until the corporate sponsors let him know what to think. And they are still deciding.
Posted: Wed - December 13, 2006 at 02:51 PM
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Published On: Dec 13, 2006 02:51 PM
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Published On: Dec 13, 2006 02:51 PM