Caucuses
I took Staffan to the Washington State caucuses
this past Saturday. It was pretty much as I expected, but the interesting thing
was that the system nearly guarantees that many people will be underrepresented.
In my precinct, we had four delegates to nominate, which disqualified any
candidate with less than 20% support. Combined with the small number of people
from each precinct who show up, there is some serious round off
error.
In my case, 14 voters showed up. With 4 delegates to anoint, that means any voting pattern other than 14-0 or 7-7 would result in some candidates getting more than their share, and others getting less. On our first preference round, it was 7 Kerry, 5 Dean, 1 Clark and 1 Kucinich. Had those numbers stuck, the delegate count would have been 2 each for Kerry and Dean, In the end, the Kucinich supporter switched to Dean, but the Clark supporter and one Dean supporter switched to Kerry, resulting in a 9-5 vote. The resulting Delegate total was 3 for Kerry and 1 for Dean.
Because there were only four delegates the delegate ratio had to end up either 50-50 ( 2-2) or 75-25 ( 3-1). It was right in the middle at 65-35, so the round off error seemed more pronounced, Contrast this to what might occur if they threw many precincts together in one delegate pool -- If there were 12 delegates instead of 4, voters split 65-35 could split the delegates 8 - 4 and get much closer to the right proportions.
What struck me was how inexperienced we all were at Caucusing. See, Dean would still have gotten only 1 delegate with only three supporters, so that means that two Dean supporters were free to abandon him with no harm done. If they had joined the Clark supporter, they could have taken a delegate away from Kerry. But the idea that such things were possible escaped all of us until the Caucus was over.
This got me thinking that practicing the caucus would actually make a great game for a group of people. If the ratio of delegates to voters is irrational, it is simply impossible to have each player equally enfranchised by the outcome -- if different voters get points depending on the ultimate delegate total, there might be some very interesting dynamics, and it would make a very good practice round for the real thing.
In my case, 14 voters showed up. With 4 delegates to anoint, that means any voting pattern other than 14-0 or 7-7 would result in some candidates getting more than their share, and others getting less. On our first preference round, it was 7 Kerry, 5 Dean, 1 Clark and 1 Kucinich. Had those numbers stuck, the delegate count would have been 2 each for Kerry and Dean, In the end, the Kucinich supporter switched to Dean, but the Clark supporter and one Dean supporter switched to Kerry, resulting in a 9-5 vote. The resulting Delegate total was 3 for Kerry and 1 for Dean.
Because there were only four delegates the delegate ratio had to end up either 50-50 ( 2-2) or 75-25 ( 3-1). It was right in the middle at 65-35, so the round off error seemed more pronounced, Contrast this to what might occur if they threw many precincts together in one delegate pool -- If there were 12 delegates instead of 4, voters split 65-35 could split the delegates 8 - 4 and get much closer to the right proportions.
What struck me was how inexperienced we all were at Caucusing. See, Dean would still have gotten only 1 delegate with only three supporters, so that means that two Dean supporters were free to abandon him with no harm done. If they had joined the Clark supporter, they could have taken a delegate away from Kerry. But the idea that such things were possible escaped all of us until the Caucus was over.
This got me thinking that practicing the caucus would actually make a great game for a group of people. If the ratio of delegates to voters is irrational, it is simply impossible to have each player equally enfranchised by the outcome -- if different voters get points depending on the ultimate delegate total, there might be some very interesting dynamics, and it would make a very good practice round for the real thing.
Posted: Tue - February 10, 2004 at 08:05 PM
Quick Links
Statistics
Total entries in this blog:
Total entries in this category:
Published On: Mar 09, 2008 01:25 AM
Total entries in this category:
Published On: Mar 09, 2008 01:25 AM