ジョージ・ソロスのメールマガジン:「テロとの戦い」は成功しない!


ジョージ・ソロスは、言わず知れたヘッジ・ファンドの王者。悪評も散々だが、そのファンド運用の結果で、その判断力の競争力の高さを実証している。最近は、政治的な発言が多くなったが、彼の天才的だとも言える直観的な判断力は十分尊重するべきだと思う。

昨日受け取ったメーリングリストによるメール:
Dear Friend,

I thought you might find it interesting to read my opinion piece below from today's Wall Street Journal.

If you would like to read more excerpts from my new† book "The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the war on Terror" please visit my website.

Please share this message with your colleagues. If you received this message from one of your colleagues, you can add yourself to my new mailing list here.

Wall Street Journal
ÅhA Self-Defeating WarÅh
By George Soros

By George Soros -- The war on terror is a false metaphor that has led to counterproductive and self-defeating policies. Five years after 9/11, a misleading figure of speech applied literally has unleashed a real war fought on several fronts -- Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Somalia -- a war that has killed thousands of innocent civilians and enraged millions around the world. Yet al Qaeda has not been subdued; a plot that could have claimed more victims than 9/11 has just been foiled by the vigilance of British intelligence.

Unfortunately, the "war on terror" metaphor was uncritically accepted by the American public as the obvious response to 9/11. It is now widely admitted that the invasion of Iraq was a blunder. But the war on terror remains the frame into which American policy has to fit. Most Democratic politicians subscribe to it for fear of being tagged as weak on defense.

What makes the war on terror self-defeating?

• First, war by its very nature creates innocent victims. A war waged against terrorists is even more likely to claim innocent victims because terrorists tend to keep their whereabouts hidden. The deaths, injuries and humiliation of civilians generate rage and resentment among their families and communities that in turn serves to build support for terrorists.

• Second, terrorism is an abstraction. It lumps together all political movements that use terrorist tactics. Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Sunni insurrection and the Mahdi army in Iraq are very different forces, but President Bush's global war on terror prevents us from differentiating between them and dealing with them accordingly. It inhibits much-needed negotiations with Iran and Syria because they are states that support terrorist groups.

• Third, the war on terror emphasizes military action while most territorial conflicts require political solutions. And, as the British have shown, al Qaeda is best dealt with by good intelligence. The war on terror increases the terrorist threat and makes the task of the intelligence agencies more difficult. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are still at large; we need to focus on finding them, and preventing attacks like the one foiled in England.

• Fourth, the war on terror drives a wedge between "us" and "them." We are innocent victims. They are perpetrators. But we fail to notice that we also become perpetrators in the process; the rest of the world, however, does notice. That is how such a wide gap has arisen between America and much of the world.

Taken together, these four factors ensure that the war on terror cannot be won. An endless war waged against an unseen enemy is doing great damage to our power and prestige abroad and to our open society at home. It has led to a dangerous extension of executive powers; it has tarnished our adherence to universal human rights; it has inhibited the critical process that is at the heart of an open society; and it has cost a lot of money. Most importantly, it has diverted attention from other urgent tasks that require American leadership, such as finishing the job we so correctly began in Afghanistan, addressing the looming global energy crisis, and dealing with nuclear proliferation.

With American influence at low ebb, the world is in danger of sliding into a vicious circle of escalating violence. We can escape it only if we Americans repudiate the war on terror as a false metaphor. If we persevere on the wrong course, the situation will continue to deteriorate. It is not our will that is being tested, but our understanding of reality. It is painful to admit that our current predicaments are brought about by our own misconceptions. However, not admitting it is bound to prove even more painful in the long run. The strength of an open society lies in its ability to recognize and correct its mistakes. This is the test that confronts us.

Mr. Soros, a financier, is author of "The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror" (Public Affairs, 2006).

人類は、無駄な努力のために無駄なお金を使うことで、何千年も文明の進歩を阻んできた。何千年もの間の平均経済成長率は、ほとんどゼロだったのである。意味のないことにエネルギーを費やすべきだと主張するアホな「主義者」が多かったためだ。たまたま、そう言うアホが排除された時に、うまくその機会を利用して、人類は飛躍的な成長を実現してきた。

でも、平均で考えれば、人類の歴史を支配したのは、人間の平均的な「アホさ加減」。だから人類の進歩は遅々たるものだった。特に今起こっていることを考えれば、当分人類の進歩は停滞せざるをえないのだろう。

特に、生産性が極度に劣るくせに手前の既得権を主張し日本経済の足を引っ張るだけの「ヒャクショウ勢力」や、国益を「自分の面子だけのこと」と誤解して自慰行為にふけるアホ・ウヨが力を付けて跋扈する現代日本には、その将来にあまり希望は持てない。この分では国際競争にすぐ負ける。

散人はすぐに死ぬから、別にどうでもIいいが、こどもたちのことを考えると、とても心配である。

Posted: Fri - August 18, 2006 at 09:50 PM           |


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