Preparedness
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This site was constructed before the pandemic of 2009 began. This section of the site was intended to prepare people for a pandemic. Since a pandemic has already begun, we are no longer in the "prepare" phase, we are now in the "respond" phase. However, many of resources that helped people prepare for a pandemic will also be useful to those responding to it.
Some vaccine is currently available, but many people will be infected with the new H1N1 virus before they have a chance to get vaccinated. There are drugs called antivirals that reduce the severity of the pandemic flu symptoms, but they must be given very quickly after symptoms start or they don't work. There are not enough of these drugs for more than a fraction of the population. There are already signs that the new H1N1 may be evolving resistance to these drugs.
One way to limit the spread of the virus is practice social distancing. This means reducing your contact with other people to as little as possible. The H1N1 virus is being primarily spread by school children at this stage in the pandemic. Hence, keeping kids home from school will greatly reduce their chances of becoming infected and protect adults that they are in contact with as well. People who need to continue to work during this phase of the pandemic should avoid close contact with co-workers as much as possible. Spread of the virus is primarily via droplets dispersed in the air. Hence, it is important to avoid being in the same room with people who are coughing. Hand hygeine is a good general practice, but will not protect against droplets floating in the air.
The case fatality rate of the current pandemic H1N1 virus is the subject of much debate. Many people are responding to the pandemic as if this is a mild virus. It may not be. Recent data suggests that this virus is much more severe than is generally realised. In addition, it is always possible that the virus may change to become even more lethal. This may be due to mutation or reassortment with another flu virus. H5N1 (bird flu) continues to infect and kill people. Although it has not yet reached pandemic status, this virus has the potential to mix with H1N1 and to form a virus that is easily spread and highly lethal. H5N1 currently kills over 70% of the people it infects. A virus with this kill rate that spreads as easily as the new H1N1 virus would be devastating. Given that it is unlikely that a vaccine will be available in time and that our antiviral supplies are running low, preparations for this possibility are warranted.
There are two general strategies for coping with a severe pandemic: shelter-in-place (SIP) and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE). SIP means to stay in your home for the duration of a local outbreak of the pandemic virus - typically 6 - 12 weeks. The federal government has made it clear that it will not be providing food or other supplies to cities in the event of a pandemic. Thus, it is up to each citizen to stockpile sufficient supplies (food, water and medicine, etc.) for this time period. Given the lethality of the virus and the uncertainty of the length of a local outbreak, many concerned citizens have determined that at least 12 weeks of preparations are necessary. Further, large scale absenteeism and death among essential workers may result in disruptions of production and transportation. Thus, some are preparing for even longer time periods. At some point, it will be necessary to leave your home. If you are uncertain whether the virus is still circulating in your community, it would be prudent to wear appropriate PPE.
Your individual odds of survival in a severe pandemic will also depend on the level of preparedness of your community, state and nation. It would be prudent to read the plans for each level relevant to you to determine how they will impact your own plans. Many local plans are yoked to the World Health Organisation's phase system, so it is worth understanding how international organisations are responding to the pandemic.
This site is part of a larger community often referred to as "Flublogia". It includes Blogs and Forums where people from a wide variety of backgrounds discuss pandemic flu issues. Also see Index of PFI_Forum topics.