Betting Strategies

Welcome to Marz's Betting Strategies page. On this page will be discussed several betting strategies. The idea behind them, and how well or poorly they work. Most people that know how to play Blackjack have no clue as to how to bet. You could be the best basic strategy player in the world, but if you're clueless as to how to bet, you'll lose most of the time. Why do you think the casinos hand out those cards about basic stratregy? Because they know it's how the player bets that can make or break him.

All of the Progressive Betting strategies require at least 20 units. What do I mean by units? Well, that is your base bet, whether it's $5, $25, or $100. It doesn't matter to the cards how much you are betting, only to you. One piece of advice here, "scared money never wins." Don't go into the casino afraid to lose that bankroll you brought in. If you "let your money play your cards," (Sean Rowland) you will miss out on that double down, or split, or that 5th hand in a row you won. There's also the popular Martingale System that looks really great the first time you think of it, but I'll show you why it doesn't work over the long run.

The reason for at least 20 units is that you need enough units to be able to survive a chopping table, or losing streak. A chopping table is where you win a hand, lose a hand, win a hand, lose a hand, etc. This really happens. For the most part, you should leave that table to find another. OK, so even the most disciplined of us won't necessarily do that. If you stay at that table, then only bet 1 unit at a time. Do this until you notice win streaks occurring, or you lose 3-5 hands in a row. This last part is up to you. I tend to be risky, and will allow myself to lose 5 in a row, but it's really advisable to leave a table when you lose 3-4 in a row. That dealer is hot and there's no reason to let the casino have your money.

According to John Patrick, the preferred amount of units is 40. 30 is workable, but 40 is the best. Before you walk into a casino, you should set a "Win Goal" and a "Loss Limit." How much? Well that's up to you. It's unrealistic to set a 100% or better Win Goal. Doubling your money is fairly difficult unless your doubling a very low number of units like 5-10. With that low number of units, you will most likely lose them anyway. My Win Goal is 3 units. Of course that is for units of $100 or more.

Do I bet that in the real casinos? Hmmm, no. Why? Well, I don't have a spare $4000 to take with me. This 3 unit win goal is my minimum goal. Many times you will win more than that to help offset your loses. If you "work" 5 days a week. At 3 units a session, at $100/unit you'll make $300/day. At a 100% win rate that come to around $78,000/year. More if your base unit is higher. Of course you need to take into consideration the days you lose. With that you could expect to make around $20,000/year winning 83% of the time. That's only if you average 3 units/day winning, and 10 units/day losing. You could easily average around 6-10 units/day winning and 20 units/day losing. Then that figure jumps to around $41,000-$128,000/year at the same win rate. This is also assuming you never change your base unit of $100. I'll cover what a reasonable Loss Limit would be, and what is needed to make a living at Blackjack later.

When you bring $100-$300, you really can't realistically have that 3 unit win goal. It's not worth the money to go. At that rate, just have fun. If you get up 8-10 or more units, take a break for a while. Go to the bar, have a drink (not too much), eat, go to the room, go out on the deck (riverboats), etc. Just do something to keep your money. Pocket it, and don't take it out. Either leave entirely, or go back with your original bankroll and play some more.

For the most part the your Win Goal should be 10-20% (4-8 units). 10% is the most realistic if you plan on going to a casino daily or weekly. Most people can't stick to the 10%, so use 20%. If you go once or twice a year, then still try to use these win goals, but break up your play into several sessions. This will help you keep your money rather than give it back to the casino. Kind of think of it as a video game. You're only going to play it for a few mimutes, win, then leave to play it again later. It's the Hit-and-Run technique. The longer you stay at the tables, the more likely the house odds will catch up to you and you'll lose.

Loss Limit. What should that be? For most people it's what they brought, plus whatever their ATM card/Credit Card limit is. Bad idea. First of all, leave that ATM/CC in the car or room. Never bring it on the floor with you. It's too easy to pull it out to get more cash. Even just $100 more. That $100 more turns into another $100, then another $100, etc. Now the casino is nickle and diming you. The highest a realistic loss limit suggested by John Patrick is 50%. 40% is better. That's assuming you are bringing 40 units into the casino. OK, so why bring 40 units, if my loss limit is 20 (50%)? Well, to be honest, I really don't know. I think it's a psychological thing mostly. You get the feeling that you didn't lose all your money. There's also a bit of cushion if you've lost 19 units, and have that 3 unit bet out there and need to double or split, then you have reserves to use. I personally feel that 20 units is enough for me to bring in if that is what I am willing to lose that session. If you are in the situation of having that 3 unit bet, then double for less. If you have a split opportunity, don't pull out more money, just play the hand as if you can't split it. Remember, you play the same no matter how much money you have left over or bet unless you have all the money bet anyway. The cards don't care about how much money you've bet.

OK, what about the high unit bet? Well, depending on the system, never double or split when you have more than 8 units bet. I.E. after winning 5 hands in a row. The chances of wining that 6th hand or 12 unit bet is very much reduced. If you lose that bet you've lost all the winnings you've accumulated, and are now behind. Even the 8 unit bet on a lost double can set you back. I'll cover various defensive strategies later. For now take a look at the different systems. There will be comments with each.

Below are the different types of betting strategies and the link to that part of the page: Progressive System #1 aka 1-2-3-5

This is the main progressive betting strategy I use. It was taught to me by Sonny as mentioned on the Marz Basic Strategy page. It's based on increasing your bets as you win. If you lose a hand you go back to one unit until you start winning again. Never increase your bet just because you've lost 4 hands in row and have to win the next one. Here is the table:

Hand # Bet (units) Profit (units) Net Win (units) Loss (units) Profit ($5 units) Net Win ($5 units) Loss ($5 units) Profit ($10 units) Net Win ($10 units) Loss ($10 units) Profit ($25 units) Net Win ($25 units) Loss ($25 units) Profit ($50 units) Net Win ($50 units) Loss ($50 units) Profit ($100 units) Net Win ($100 units) Loss ($100 units)
1 1 0 1 1 $0 $5 $5 $0 $10 $10 $0 $25 $25 $0 $50 $50 $0 $100 $100
2 2 0 3 2 $0 $15 $10 $0 $30 $20 $0 $75 $50 $0 $150 $100 $0 $300 $200
3 3 0 6 3 $0 $30 $15 $0 $60 $30 $0 $150 $75 $0 $300 $150 $0 $600 $300
4 5 1 11 4 $5 $55 $20 $10 $110 $40 $25 $275 $100 $50 $550 $200 $100 $1100 $400
5 8 3 19 5 $15 $95 $25 $30 $190 $50 $75 $475 $125 $150 $950 $250 $300 $1900 $500
6 12 7 31 6 $35 $155 $30 $70 $310 $60 $175 $775 $150 $350 $1550 $300 $700 $3100 $600
7 17 14 48 7 $70 $240 $35 $140 $480 $70 $350 $1200 $175 $700 $2400 $350 $1400 $4800 $700
8 23 25 71 8 $125 $355 $40 $250 $710 $80 $625 $1775 $200 $1250 $3550 $400 $2500 $7100 $800
9 30 41 101 9 $205 $505 $45 $410 $1010 $90 $1025 $2525 $225 $2050 $5050 $450 $4100 $10,100 $900
10 38 63 139 10 $315 $695 $50 $630 $1390 $100 $1575 $3475 $250 $3150 $6950 $500 $6300 $13,900 $1000
Profit = Amount of units/money you net if you lose that hand.
Net Win = Amount of units/money you net if you stop at that hand.
Loss = Amount of units/money you lose at that point of the progression.

With this strategy, everytime you lose a hand, you drop back down to a 1 unit bet. Never increase your bet during a losing streak. This is a pretty agressive betting strategy. It's main weakness is that you must win Hand #5 to get that 3 unit profit if you lose hand 6. By Hand #8 you are still ahead even if you lose that hand. Pulling back after winning Hand #4 is not a bad idea if you have not been winning after that hand. Usually winning more than four hands in a row is very difficult. You've netted 11 units at that point. Don't double or split from Hand #6 on. You are risking too much of your own money at that point. This is not "scared money." Scared money is where your down to only a few chips and won't bet double down or split. For that one hand, by playing the cards as if they were a Hard Total is not going to matter.

Progressive System #2 aka 2-3-5

This is another good betting strategy. It was shown to me by the person who taught me how to play Blackjack originally. You can also call it 1-1.5-2 as he calls it. It's a pretty good system that works. It forces you to never bet large amounts and after three hands in a row, you've net quite a bit. A good conservative system if you can't win more than 3 hands in a row.

Hand # Bet (units) Profit (units) Net Win (units) Loss (units) Profit ($5 units) Net Win ($5 units) Loss ($5 units) Profit ($10 units) Net Win ($10 units) Loss ($10 units) Profit ($25 units) Net Win ($25 units) Loss ($25 units) Profit ($50 units) Net Win ($50 units) Loss ($50 units) Profit ($100 units) Net Win ($100 units) Loss ($100 units)
1 2 0 2 2 $0 $10 $10 $0 $20 $20 $0 $50 $50 $0 $100 $100 $0 $200 $200
2 3 0 5 4 $0 $25 $20 $0 $50 $40 $0 $125 $100 $0 $250 $200 $0 $500 $400
3 5 0 10 6 $0 $50 $30 $0 $100 $60 $0 $250 $150 $0 $500 $300 $0 $1000 $600
4 2 8 12 8 $40 $60 $40 $80 $120 $80 $200 $300 $200 $400 $600 $400 $800 $1200 $800
5 3 9 15 10 $45 $75 $50 $90 $150 $100 $225 $375 $250 $450 $750 $500 $900 $1500 $1000
6 5 10 20 12 $50 $100 $60 $100 $200 $120 $250 $500 $300 $500 $1000 $600 $1000 $2000 $1200
7 2 18 22 14 $90 $110 $70 $180 $220 $140 $450 $550 $350 $900 $1100 $700 $1800 $2200 $1400
8 3 19 25 16 $95 $125 $80 $190 $250 $160 $475 $625 $400 $950 $1250 $800 $1900 $2500 $1600
9 5 20 30 18 $100 $150 $90 $200 $300 $180 $500 $750 $450 $1000 $1500 $900 $2000 $3000 $1800
10 2 28 32 20 $140 $160 $100 $280 $320 $200 $700 $800 $500 $1400 $1600 $1000 $2800 $3200 $2000
Profit = Amount of units/money you net if you lose that hand.
Net Win = Amount of units/money you net if you stop at that hand.
Loss = Amount of units/money you lose at that point of the progression.

The advantage of this system over 1-2-3-5 is that if you can only win 3 hands in a row at a time, you'll come out ahead. You're netting 4 more units after winning the 3rd hand.

Progressive System #3 aka 1-2-3-4

This system is used by one of our regular players in Houston. Very simple progression that doesn't require you to remember a wierd pattern like 1-2-3-5.

Hand # Bet (units) Profit (units) Net Win (units) Loss (units) Profit ($5 units) Net Win ($5 units) Loss ($5 units) Profit ($10 units) Net Win ($10 units) Loss ($10 units) Profit ($25 units) Net Win ($25 units) Loss ($25 units) Profit ($50 units) Net Win ($50 units) Loss ($50 units) Profit ($100 units) Net Win ($100 units) Loss ($100 units)
1 1 0 1 1 $0 $5 $5 $0 $10 $10 $0 $25 $25 $0 $50 $50 $0 $100 $100
2 2 0 3 2 $0 $15 $10 $0 $30 $20 $0 $75 $50 $0 $150 $100 $0 $300 $200
3 3 1 6 3 $5 $30 $15 $10 $60 $30 $25 $150 $75 $50 $300 $150 $100 $600 $300
4 4 3 10 4 $15 $50 $20 $30 $100 $40 $75 $250 $100 $150 $500 $200 $300 $1000 $400
5 5 6 15 5 $30 $75 $25 $60 $150 $50 $150 $375 $125 $300 $750 $250 $600 $1500 $500
6 6 10 21 6 $50 $105 $30 $100 $210 $60 $250 $525 $150 $500 $1050 $300 $1000 $2100 $600
7 7 15 28 7 $75 $140 $35 $150 $280 $70 $375 $700 $175 $750 $1400 $350 $1500 $2800 $700
8 8 21 36 8 $105 $180 $40 $210 $360 $80 $525 $900 $200 $1050 $1800 $400 $2100 $3600 $800
9 9 28 45 9 $140 $225 $45 $280 $450 $90 $700 $1125 $225 $1400 $2250 $450 $2800 $4500 $900
10 10 36 55 10 $180 $275 $50 $360 $550 $100 $900 $1375 $250 $1800 $2750 $500 $3600 $5500 $1000
Profit = Amount of units/money you net if you lose that hand.
Net Win = Amount of units/money you net if you stop at that hand.
Loss = Amount of units/money you lose at that point of the progression.

This is a super conservative betting strategy that will work over a long period of time. It takes a long streak to get into the "money," but it also protects against huge loses.

Progressive System #4 aka 1-3-2-6

This is a new betting strategy a good bud of mine showed me. He is a dealer at a local casino. He says that this is the progression that he sees all the players at the high stakes tables play.

Hand # Bet (units) Profit (units) Net Win (units) Loss (units) Profit ($5 units) Net Win ($5 units) Loss ($5 units) Profit ($10 units) Net Win ($10 units) Loss ($10 units) Profit ($25 units) Net Win ($25 units) Loss ($25 units) Profit ($50 units) Net Win ($50 units) Loss ($50 units) Profit ($100 units) Net Win ($100 units) Loss ($100 units)
1 1 0 1 1 $0 $5 $5 $0 $10 $10 $0 $25 $25 $0 $50 $50 $0 $100 $100
2 3 -1 4 2 -$5 $20 $10 -$10 $40 $20 -$25 $100 $50 -$50 $200 $100 -$100 $400 $200
3 2 4 6 3 $20 $30 $15 $40 $60 $30 $100 $150 $75 $200 $300 $150 $400 $600 $300
4 6 2 12 4 $10 $60 $20 $20 $120 $40 $50 $300 $100 $100 $600 $200 $200 $1200 $400
5 3 11 15 5 $55 $75 $25 $110 $150 $50 $275 $375 $125 $550 $750 $250 $1100 $1500 $500
6 9 8 24 6 $40 $120 $30 $80 $240 $60 $200 $600 $150 $400 $1200 $300 $800 $2400 $600
7 4 22 28 7 $110 $140 $35 $220 $280 $70 $550 $700 $175 $1100 $1400 $350 $2200 $2800 $700
8 12 18 40 8 $90 $200 $40 $180 $400 $80 $450 $1000 $200 $900 $2000 $400 $1800 $4000 $800
9 5 37 45 9 $185 $225 $45 $370 $450 $90 $925 $1125 $225 $1850 $2250 $450 $3700 $4500 $900
10 15 32 60 10 $160 $300 $50 $320 $600 $100 $800 $1500 $250 $1600 $3000 $500 $3200 $6000 $1000
Profit = Amount of units/money you net if you lose that hand.
Net Win = Amount of units/money you net if you stop at that hand.
Loss = Amount of units/money you lose at that point of the progression.

It's a pretty good system. To reach my 3 unit goal all you have to do is win 2 hands in a row (net 4 units). 3 hands in a row nets you 6 units - almost 20%. What is nice is that it anticipates that at some point in the progression you will lose. The hope is that it will be the small bet that you lose on. I like this one a lot and may begin to use it. However, for a pure money making strategy, the 1-2-3-5 is the best if you are on a streak that just won't end.

Martingale aka Double up to catch up

This betting system seems good when you first think about it. You figure that if you keep doubling your bet everytime you lose, that you'll have to eventually win a hand and win money. The deceptive thing about it is that when you win that big bet, you're only getting ahead by 1 unit. That's it. See how quickly you can lose your bankroll here.

Hand # Bet (units) Profit (units) Net Win (units) Loss (units) Profit ($5 units) Net Win ($5 units) Loss ($5 units) Profit ($10 units) Net Win ($10 units) Loss ($10 units) Profit ($25 units) Net Win ($25 units) Loss ($25 units) Profit ($50 units) Net Win ($50 units) Loss ($50 units) Profit ($100 units) Net Win ($100 units) Loss ($100 units)
1 1 -1 1 1 -$5 $5 $5 -$10 $10 $10 -$25 $25 $25 -$50 $50 $50 -$100 $100 $100
2 2 -3 1 3 -$15 $5 $15 -$30 $10 $30 -$75 $25 $75 -$150 $50 $150 -$300 $100 $300
3 4 -7 1 7 -$35 $5 $35 -$70 $10 $70 -$175 $25 $175 -$350 $50 $350 -$700 $100 $700
4 8 -15 1 15 -$75 $5 $75 -$150 $10 $150 -$375 $25 $375 -$750 $50 $750 -$1500 $100 $1500
5 16 -31 1 31 -$155 $5 $155 -$310 $10 $310 -$775 $25 $775 -$1550 $50 $1550 -$3100 $100 $3100
6 32 -63 1 63 -$315 $5 $315 -$630 $10 $630 -$1575 $25 $1575 -$3150 $50 $3150 -$6300 $100 $6300
7 64 -127 1 127 -$635 $5 $635 -$1270 $10 $1270 -$3175 $25 $3175 -$6350 $50 $6350 -$12,700 $100 $12,700
8 128 -255 1 255 -$1275 $5 $1275 -$2550 $10 $2550 -$6375 $25 $6375 -$12,750 $50 $12,750 -$25,500 $100 $25,500
9 256 -511 1 511 -$2555 $5 $2555 -$5110 $10 $5110 -$12,775 $25 $12,775 -$25,550 $50 $25,550 -$51,100 $100 $51,100
10 512 -1023 1 1023 -$5115 $5 $5115 -$10,230 $10 $10,230 -$25,575 $25 $25,575 -$51,150 $50 $51,150 -$102,300 $100 $102,300
Profit = Amount of units/money you net if you lose that hand.
Net Win = Amount of units/money you net if you stop at that hand.
Loss = Amount of units/money you lose at that point of the progression.

WOW! After 10 hands, you've lost $5115 after starting with $5! This is the worst betting strategy in the world. I've killed more people as a dealer on this betting strategy than any other. The odds catch up to them eventually. The only thing that can save them is getting a split or double down hand during the losing streak. And then if they lose that hand instead, what do they do? Well, they need to jump a couple steps farther into the progression to be able to recoup their losses. Or to win more hands than lose. If that's happening, then they're missing the boat! They need to be using a progressive strategy instead.

Why do I have a negative profit? Well this strategy is based on a losing streak rather than a winning streak. It's true that you will most likely lose more hands than win. The problem is that when you finally win a hand you only net 1 unit. Period. So your "Profit" after losing a particular hand is actually a loss. That's why the "Profit" and "Loss" are the same.

Here's where that little thing called a table limit can kill you. Table limit? Yeah, you know, the MAX bet. By Hand #10 you will most likely reach the table max bet. At $5, you are betting $2560, $10 = $5120, $25 = 12,800, $50 = 25,600, and $100 = $51,200. Ususally the table max on a $5 will be no higher than $2500. Most of the time it will be much less than that. On other tables it may by as high as $10,000, but usually not too much higher than that for the common folk tables. To get higher maxes, you need to be in special rooms rubbing elbows with the oil shieks. These table maxes make it impossible to win your money back. This system only works in theory, and with an infinite bankroll in essesnce. But even then, that large of a bankroll would be better off being used somewhere else.

Want to try it anyway? How much are you going to start with? At $100, you can only loose 4 hands in a row before you can't continue the progression. OK, bring more. Don't think you can loose 5 or 6 hands in a row? I'll bet you can, and at that point you need $635 just to last until hand 7. The likelihood of losing more than 6 hands in a row is small, but it's more likely than winning 4 hands in a row. Remember, this strategy only nets you one unit when you win.

Straight Betting (No Progression)

Just for the curious.
Hand # Bet (units) Profit (units) Net Win (units) Loss (units) Profit ($5 units) Net Win ($5 units) Loss ($5 units) Profit ($10 units) Net Win ($10 units) Loss ($10 units) Profit ($25 units) Net Win ($25 units) Loss ($25 units) Profit ($50 units) Net Win ($50 units) Loss ($50 units) Profit ($100 units) Net Win ($100 units) Loss ($100 units)
1 1 0 1 1 $0 $5 $5 $0 $10 $10 $0 $25 $25 $0 $50 $50 $0 $100 $100
2 1 1 2 2 $5 $10 $10 $10 $20 $20 $25 $50 $50 $50 $100 $100 $100 $200 $200
3 1 2 3 3 $10 $15 $15 $20 $30 $30 $50 $75 $75 $100 $150 $150 $200 $300 $300
4 1 3 4 4 $15 $20 $20 $30 $40 $40 $75 $100 $100 $150 $200 $200 $300 $400 $400
5 1 4 5 5 $20 $25 $25 $40 $50 $50 $100 $125 $125 $200 $250 $250 $400 $500 $500
6 1 5 6 6 $25 $30 $30 $50 $60 $60 $125 $150 $150 $250 $300 $300 $500 $600 $600
7 1 6 7 7 $30 $35 $35 $60 $70 $70 $150 $175 $175 $300 $350 $350 $600 $700 $700
8 1 7 8 8 $35 $40 $40 $70 $80 $80 $175 $200 $200 $350 $400 $400 $700 $800 $800
9 1 8 9 9 $40 $45 $45 $80 $90 $90 $200 $225 $225 $400 $450 $450 $800 $900 $900
10 1 9 10 10 $45 $50 $50 $90 $100 $100 $225 $250 $250 $450 $500 $500 $900 $1000 $1000
Profit = Amount of units/money you net if you lose that hand.
Net Win = Amount of units/money you net if you stop at that hand.
Loss = Amount of units/money you lose at that point of the progression.

This is here just to show what happens if you don't progress at all during a winning streak. Just to satsify the curious. A good way to bet if you are learning the game, and don't want to get confused with betting strategies.

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