Plan to kill Linux


John C. Dvorak, the master of dubious speculation at PCMag, has come up with a plan which he says will allow Microsoft to effectively "kill" Linux. Here's how it works.

Anyone who has played around or used Linux knows that peripheral support is not that terrific. Windows is definitely better in this respect. So why couldn't Microsoft attach the driver layer of Windows to Linux, thus creating a veritable MS-Linux? Microsoft could place the driver layer into a separate utility in order to escape Linux's open source GPL. This would allow them to sell what would amount to a proprietary version of Linux. "The long-term implications of such a scenario, I believe, would be essentially to kill Linux," insists Dvorak. "Microsoft's MS-Linux would quickly become the dominant Linux and the company would begin to profit from all the open-source development work that would go into Linux. Once the developers saw that happen they'd stop working on Linux and it would die. After all, who wants to do free work that benefits Microsoft?"

I'm not sure this scenario is all that plausible. First of all, how important is a driver layer to Linux users? Do companies that use Linux as servers need it? Probably not. Where would it be most useful? On the desktop, of course. Linux, despite reports to the contrary, is not used that much on the desktop—at least not as a primary system. Sure, a lot of people download and install Linux: but they download and install it on old hardware. They get a new PC with Windows XP and then install Linux on their old one, either to use as a server or as a Linux workstation. The amount of individuals and businesses using Linux as a primary desktop is still fairly small—maybe 1 or 2 percent. Most of those users are hardcore computer geeks who entertain an intractable hatred for Microsoft and who regard the driver problem as Linux as a fun challenge. These people won't be switching any time soon. So who will use this product? The number one issue for Linux on the desktop is not the lack of drivers (driver support isn't great, but it isn't horrible, either), it's lack of high and medium end applications. No Office, no Photoshop, no Frontpage, no Dreamweaver, no PC Games. Until at least some of these applications come to Linux (and no, crossover office, using wine, doesn't count), Linux cannot mount a challenge to Microsoft on the desktop. But if they should come to Linux, peripheral makers will start writing drivers for Linux, and that will be the end of MS-Linux.

In short, Dvorak's scenario ain't going to happen.

Posted: Sun - February 27, 2005 at 04:23 PM          

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