Economic regression: Rome and America compared
Here in Eureka, CA, gasoline sells at $3.15 a
gallon. It cost me over $40 to fill-up a Nissan king-cab pick-up. The recent
rise in gas prices marks the end of cheap oil. Since our entire economy depends
on cheap oil and is unsustainable without it, the end of cheap oil will likely
bring about the greatest period of economic regression since the decline and
fall of the Roman Empire.
Rome’s economic regression came about with
the end cheap labor. The Roman economic system depended on a steady supply of
inexpensive slaves. When Tiberius decided to abandon the wars of conquest on the
Rhine, the regular supply of fresh slaves ceased. Large landowners became so
desperate for laborers that they began seizing people on the roads. Eventually,
the increase of slave prices would make it impossible to maintain market
production, eventually forcing more and more estates to supply all their own
needs. This in turn led to the decay of the cities and towns, which depended on
the exchange of labor and goods with the hinterlands.
The powerful Roman bureaucracy could
not be maintained without a considerable supply of taxes. As the economy
contracted, it became increasingly diffficult to meet the expenses of a
continental state, particularly the expenses of maintaining an army. Without a
reliable, patriotic army, the Roman Empire could not fend off the barbarian
invasions. The Western half of the empire inexorably crumbled into
feudalism.
America and the West face a
similar crises, only this time high oil prices, rather than high slave prices,
will be the triggering cause. Not only our industry, but our way of life depends
on cheap energy. The automobile in particular has had an immense impact on our
society. It has enabled us to live miles away from where we work. Surbaban
communities would be impossible without it. Yet the automobile will be the first
causality of rising oil prices. As gas prices rise, people will be forced to
drive less and less, until finally they will hardly be able to drive at all. As
transportation becomes increasingly difficult and expensive, people will have to
make substantial changes in their lifestyles, in where and how they
live.
Even more worrisome is the affect
these changes will have on the production and distribution of food. Agriculture
is no less dependent on cheap oil than industry. Not only farming equipment, but
fertilizers and pesticides often use petreoleum. The question is whether we can
produce and distribute enough food to maintain the high levels of population
that have been made possible by the industrialization of agriculture in a
post-industrial, post-petroleum era. If we can’t manage this transition we
will have a very ugly situation on our hands. Unless we take the inevitable
depletion of oil reserves seriously and begin taking steps to solve the problems
we will confront during the transition from a petroleum-based agriculture to a
de-industrialized agriculture system, we may not be able to avoid the horrors of
famine, anarchy, and the complete demoralization of
society.
It would be foolish to assume
that some other cheap energy source will be discovered. We have no reason to
believe that this will happen. None of the proposed energy substitutes for oil
are in the least promising. Hydrogen, for example, requires energy to bring it
into existence. Where is this energy to come from? Some have suggested nuclear
power. This would make a good short term solution. It would certainly buy us
time. But nuclear power is a finite source just like oil. Maybe it could keep us
going for a century or more. Yet what do we do when we run out of
uranium?
In short, unless we discover
some other source of energy that is both cheap and inexaustible, the industrial
system is doomed.
Posted: Tue - September 20, 2005 at 11:07 PM