Dollar declines to new low


The dollar declined to a nine year low on Thursday, mirrored by a sixteen year high for the price of gold. I have already warned that the economic powers at the Fed, at the U.S. Treasury and in Wall Street would do everything in their power to keep the economy going through the election.

But now that the election is over and the right candidate (from Wall Street's vantage point) has won, we already begin to see signs that a serious economic decline could be imminent. As the dollar falls and gold rises, this places stress on an already fragile economic system. If foreign investors should pull out of the U.S bond and stock market, it could trigger a collapse in U.S. asset markets. If the collapse is serious enough, it could bring about the deflation which worried the Fed so much a couple of years ago.

Curiously, part of the current dollars fall can be traced to the Middle East, where investors, including central banks, are pulling out of the dollar as part of a planned diversification of their assets. China also appears to be pulling out of the dollar, despite their huge export market to the U.S. A weakened dollar will of course lead to higher gas prices for American consumers, putting yet another strain on an economy that is quickly nearing the breaking point. It may, however, help the current account deficit.

Posted: Thu - November 4, 2004 at 11:47 PM          


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