With a few ponchkes in the belly, it's time to prognosticate on Apple in 2006

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With a few ponchkes in the belly, it's time to prognosticate on Apple in 2006

Date Created: 26 Dec, 2005, 06:01 PM

I've been having loads of fun over the Christmas break with my blog entry about The Apprentice's Season 4, Episode 12 using Apple equipment to produce videos promoting Microsoft's Live Meeting collaboration software.

The entry seems to have attracted comments from the great Windows unwashed who are pulling out all kind of nonsensical arguments to justify why the professional editors did not/could not have use(d) Apple's Final Cut Pro editing solution.

If you are an English teacher wishing to set a class exercise in clear thinking and comprehension, you could do worse than direct your students to the comments area to write an essay describing the errors in clear thinking present there.

That said, I don't pull the comments, even when they get asinine since they are amusing and can spur thoughts for new blog entries.

(Update, December 29 - I have pulled some comments for another more recent blog entry emanating from one person using multiple IDs whose offerings included ad hominem attacks. That I won't tolerate. I have the person's IP address).

Mind you, I've also seen my fair share of silly Mac-advocate anecdotes, but my guess is these come from young males flexing their cognitive muscles and not making a good fist of it. The Mac doesn't appear the primary choice of platform for this population, for whom gaming remains an essential part of their computing experience. The ability to throw together a wickedly fast Windows box for $500 from various parts then tweak it is also appealing, while Mac owners tend to spend more in my experience and want it to work out of the box without the necessity to tweak and overclock. They have creative work to do after all!

With greater penetration of broadband "always on" connectivity, those in the Windows camp need constant vigilance to ward off internet-borne nasties. The demise of the floppy has gone some way to stopping the spread of viruses, but it's really now a drop in the ocean compared to what gets transmitted via email and file-sharing.

It's for this reason amongst others that 2006 will be the year of the Switcher for Apple and Microsoft. Apple's previous Switcher campaign was clever and got lots of eyeballs, even to the point of being parodied, but I doubt it actually generated much switching.

As I recall, not one of the Switcher stories featured the iPod which was still to peak in terms of its public awareness. Well, it has perhaps peaked and hopefully will continue to dominate the market if only because I find it intrinsically satisfying that the better product does get to win dominant market share in this case. An appropriate reversal of fortune for Apple.

(UPDATE - December 27, 2005: A random reader in my comments section points out there was a Switch ad. featuring the iPod, with student Hamilton Morris, and which you can see here. All the first gen. Switcher ads are viewable here. The Morris ad. doesn't show the iPod, so for me it seems it was forgettable).

Apple too is making The Switch in 2006 to Intel CPUs for some of its hardware, so it knows about switching and what it entails. It's a tough process. Apple has been working on it now for five years, since the introduction of OS X, and this year sees the switch becoming a real proposition for those willing to engage in Rev. A purchases of Apple notebooks. (I'll likely wait for Rev. B)

Apple thus has eased some of the pain of switching by virtue of the iPod's success and the multi-platform capabilities of the iPod/iTunes combo such that Windows users are prepared to have an Apple product in the homes or workplaces - and be seen in public with them - leading to Apple being "cool" again for young people (Younger Gen. X and most of Gen. Y).

G5 iMacs are also proving attractive to young people, living in environments short on space, and perhaps because of the built-in iSight camera. But my understanding is that MSNMessenger still rules the roost as the premier Instant Messenger for Gen Y, given it comes standard on even the cheapest Windows box with ancient forms of Windows. Perhaps when Google or Yahoo or whomever works out a universal messenger protocol which includes iChat/AOL IM will we see MSN's messenger lose value.

Of course, you can download the Mac version, but like Windows Media Player, it is seriously buggy, and doesn't include the VoIP-type operation. There are freeware applications that mimic MSNMessenger but again, don't include the VoIP.

So it seems to me the way to attract that demographic is likely to be via the next Intel-powered iBook at seriously inexpensive prices - low enough to give Michael Dell a couple of sleepless nights; low enough that any school district which doesn't give serious consideration to bulk purchases of an iBook setup and support structure needs the PTA to ask questions of their governance; especially if they can be made speedy and attractive and cool enough for the kids and teachers to demand them themselves.

Now to discuss Apple shares and possibly Intel-Inside iBooks.

We are passing the holiday break and heading to two important events for technology pundits: CES in Las Vegas, and MacWorld in San Francisco. Unfortunately, I won't be at either this year, but I have attended both in the past (CES as media personnel) so I know a llittle about what happens there.

Microsoft will have a huge presence at CES, with Bill Gates giving the opening Keynote. For his sake, not that he likely cares much, I hope his keynote goes off without a hitch, although my capacity for schadenfreude wouldn't mind seeing video footage of another poor showing for Windows Media Centre like last year.

We'll hear some of the MS roadmap Gates has planned, and we'll be left wondering how much will actually happen versus how much is vaporware.

After CES finishes, with the only Apple presence being vendors utilising its products to show off their individual wares to best advantage, MacWorld will commence with Steve Jobs keynoting.

My expectations here are that it is not a good time to buy Apple shares before the keynote despite the Mac rumour sites swirling and twirling with all manner of new product possibilities. In previous years, overzealous investors have punished Apple after the keynote for not delivering the products "promised" by the rumour sites, and its share price has dropped after the keynote, despite good solid product announcements from Jobs. These have been evolutionary, not revolutionary, and the market disappointment has chastised Apple via its share price, rather than those who talked up the potential products via rumour sites.

Not that I would banish the rumour sites, since they are an almost unique part of the Mac universe. But they are also a reason Apple dispenses with public blogs which keep the interest end-user connected with development teams, helping to shape up the product to better match the user-base needs. Note that the Powerpoint team from Microsoft are now doing that with the next version of that software.

Not that I expect in that case that it will make a huge difference, since I only expect more bells, whistles and embroidery for Powerpoint - which won't reverse the Death by Powerpoint which seems to be my fate currently!

A good time to buy Apple shares is when they drop after the keynote which seems to be a consistent pattern these past few years. 2006 may prove a little different, however. Apple has recently taken a $4 realignment for appearing to get "too hot", so that may moderate any potential further realignment post-keynote.

However, should the much-anticipated Intel iBook not be shown and or be ready for imminent sale through the usual channels, we'll see Apple shares punished just as we did when the rumoured iPod mini was released not at $99 or $199, but at $259, to almost universal market derision. Of course, we know how that story ended, with the iPod mini becoming the most popular iPod ever (even at $259) and still commanding excellent resale prices on eBay, despite making way for the nano which is repeating its success, and more so.

The same goes for the MacMini upgrade being touted as Apple's loungeroom media centre, perhaps with iPod outrigger, and TiVO-like functionality. As well as the usual rumoured "products not even known about" which continues to setup Apple and Steve Jobs for a big fall.

This year's MacWorld keynote was one of the best ever, despite the unusual presence of Sony's CEO, and the promise of the year of HD not quite making it.

But there was a definite sense of Apple going places, that it had a roadmap, and most importantly the competence to enact a vision of digital life for the next decade to come.

The advent of the 5G iPod in late 2005 has opened up enormous possibilities. There was very little content early in 2005 to justify it, but having recognised this, Apple went about doing the deals to shift our collective attention from iTunes being merely an audio storefront, to a video-inclusive one. It acknowledged then enveloped the nascent field of podcasting during the year too, and gave huge numbers access to content previously the province of hobbyists aned tech geeks.

So expect to see more announcements of new video and audio content deals at this keynote.

And speaking of Keynotes, I do expect to see the presentation software upgraded to a new version, perhaps as part of iWork 06. I've already blogged two 2005 keynotes where Steve Jobs showed new Keynote effects, In 2004, for the iPod U2 release in San Jose, he showed new effects, and they dutifully appeared in Keynote 2 within iWork, alongside Pages 1.0. I anticipate Keynote 3 (or Keynote 06) will include an export-to-iPod feature to take advantage of the 5G iPod's rich feature set.

Pages 2.0 will appear and be revved up with new features and made speedier and less buggy, especially its html exporting. Can we expect a new application to be added to the iWork duo, such that we can start referring to an iWorks suite? Will it be an Excel-type program, or something for business which integrates the features of a number of stand-alone business programs?

iLife 06 ought to make an appearance, with substantial upgrades to its current feature set. It may receive a new free application to help the growth of podcasting, as well as new hardware to assist the creative process. Perhaps a specially badged Apple mixer and headset/microphone which doubles as a VoIP tool. And wouldn't it be nice if the headset was bluetooth to allow you to roam about the house or apartment - do I hear Bluetooth extender hardware as a possibility to give greater range?

Now to iPods: We have seen so much happen on this front that I can't see new iPods for quite a few months. The 5G with video needs further bedding in to our collective conscious, but Apple has done it right by not giving you a choice of whether to have video or not: you want a full-size iPod, it comes with video as a bonus. Use it or not - your choice, but we will provide you with content you can use anyway.

What I do expect to see in an iPod later in the year, once the video capabilities have become second nature, is a feature set I saw in a friend's digital still camera.

Take a picture and hold the camera in landscape position, and see the image on the rear LCD screen. Now turn the camera 90 degrees, and the picture automatically adjusts to portrait, much like old Radius pivot monitors and new Samsung colour LCDs.

UPDATE - December 29: I finally located the digital camera where I first saw this feature. Here are the screenshots from a superbly detailed review of the camera in question, the Canon Powershot SD550 Digital Elph, by Jeff Keller.

So here's the landscape shot:

... and here's the portrait shot, which displays after you rotate the camera and orientation sensors kick in.

Jeff has no idea of this orientation capacity for the iPod when he writes:

"The final crazy feature must've been one of those "well, we have some spare time, let's do something cool" items. As you can see in the photos above, when you rotate the camera into the vertical position, the image being displayed gets rotated too. Canon's using the same orientation sensors that automatically rotate photos for you to do this trick."

Apply this to a 6G iPod. It means eliminating the physical scroll wheel, and replacing it with an onscreen touch sensitive yet graphically accurate representation of one. Hold the iPod vertically, and for talking head videos and music where you don't need to see the screen all the time, it works just like a 5G iPod. Rotate it to landscape, and the scrollwheel is tapped to make it disappear and we get 16:9 ratio video for those movies and shows that are filmed this way, and need loads of real estate.

These same digital cameras, by the way, are now incorporating wi-fi connectivity for file transfers, and so I think it's plausible to think we may say some form of wireless connectivity with the iPod too. Whether Apple will open it up to allow many to listen to one iPod, or allow iPod->iPod transfer, remains to be seen. Perhaps they will leave a little door ajar and clever third parties will find a way in.

To wrap up: we are entering the year of Apple's 30th anniversary. I can't imagine Steve Jobs not mentioning this in his keynote, despite his abhorence of historical reflections. I think he will, and he will speak of 2006 being the real year of the Switcher. If he does offer a retrospective, he will link Apple's original DNA to the current way Apple looks to the future.

He'll refer to Apple's rich history of advertisements and their messages over the years: of the Power to be your best, and Think Different series as examples of the company's continuing mission to bring creativity and self-expression to the masses.

And if 2006 will be anything, it will be the year when mainstream media gets a very rude public awakening of its forthcoming crisis of not being the sole source of content for the public to consume, free or otherwise. They know it's coming, and in 2006 it will be a very public crisis.

We've heard years of Linux being readied for the Average Joe's desktop, but it's not happened, and my guess is many in the Linux fraternity are looking to Apple products for their next purchases.

If just a few in that developer community embrace OS X, then it will strengthen the software choices such that we may well see multiplatform application releases, rather than the very narrow silos Mac users have become so used to being excluded from, such examples being Yahoo movies and MTV Overdrive, as well as CNN and other news vendors and their locking into Windows Media Player "standards".

Come back to this blog entry often as we head to MacWorld, as I intend to update it and add pictures illustrating products or services I've mentioned. Or let your RSS aggregator do the work of update notification for you.

Whatever the case, one thing I won't be deleting is my view that 2006 will be a watershed year for technology, and especially for Apple, whose vision will set the trends for the remaining years of the decade.