| Home > Technology > Moving Windows users to Apple products via the iPod - the Halo Effect helps, but it's not enough: think Restraint Theory |
| Moving Windows users to Apple products via the iPod - the Halo Effect helps, but it's not enough: think Restraint Theory | | Date Created: 08 Jan, 2005, 11:06 AM |
 (This is a revised version of an earlier published draft)
I visited the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas yesterday.
Registering as a news writer/reporter, opened doors and civility not usually available to the average Joe. (I write articles regularly for my professional assocation's monthly magazine)
I've also read that Apple "missed" this show, to which even a dullard could answer, "No, it didn't - it's never gone to CES".
Indeed, why should it attend to become lost amongst all the hoi polloi, amongst those who compete on price, and where I saw no standout unique products in the main halls. Lots of "our version of technology X is better than our competitors", however. Unique innovative products were found in the Innovation Plus inflatable tents outside the main centre plazas, and here was where some really interesting stuff from up-and-coming start-ups could be found.
No, CES is not for Apple.
On the long drive back from Las Vegas to Irvine, I listened on the iPod/iTrip to Your Mac Life for a couple of entertaining hours. It featured a few references to CES, and quite a few references in interviews with Mac commentators and analysts to the so-called iPod "Halo effect".
Analyst Gene Munster of Piper-Jaffray, who was a no-show on YML two consecutive weeks (such that host Shawn King had to record an interview rather than go "live" as preferred), has been the main pusher of this idea, suggesting that his research shows between 6-13% of Windows-based iPod users will likely opt to move to the Mac platform in the future.
He apportions responsibility for this (I have previously referred to it as a Seachange, reflecting an opting-out from the rat-race effect of using Windows) to an iPod-centric Halo effect.
Students of psychology, especially social psychology which I was exposed to as a 2nd. year undergraduate, know of the Halo effect from the research almost 40 years ago on appearance and abilities. Here, raters give a higher rating on qualities such as intelligence to those people (usually shown in photographs) with good looks. In other words, one ascribes certain characteristics to a group or individual based on other non-related characteristics.
By itself, it has always been an interesting phenomenon to research, but in subsequent studies it has been shown to be a confounding variable such that experimenters try to control for the bias the halo effect can produce.
Usually, positive characteristics are connoted when referring to the halo effect. But the effect can be negative too, as with dumb blond jokes. Generally, the psychological research has focussed on positive characteristics, and here is where the iPod phenomenon could be associated with a halo effect.
Windows users discovering the qualities of the Apple product (in this case, the whole widget: iPod, iTunes, and where available, the iTunes Music Store) come to conceive of Apple as a producer of quality goods, leading them to a satisfying emotional experience, albeit not an inexpensive one. And if they purchased their iPod or accessories at an Apple Store, they also saw "quality in action" to enhance the halo effect. They saw Apple's other hardware, as well as rows of boxed software and other-branded peripherals.
In other words, they are invited to assess Apple as a mainstream PC supplier, not as some specialised high-end prosumer supplier. Moreover, mainstream or not, Munster believes (and I have suggested this too elsewhere in this blog) that come their next purchase of a PC, prospective buyers will carry with them an expectation of a satisfying experience with Apple's other products.
But I want to say using the Halo effect theory is not enough. Indeed, strictly speaking, it is a false use of the term because its original use connoted an imaginary, false relationship between two seemingly independent qualities, e.g. good looks and intelligence.
In the case of the iPod and Apple's other products, there is a real relationship: the iPod is but one example of Apple's innovation and engineering accomplishments, albeit a superlative one. Thus, a happy iPod user has every reason to expect Apple's other products will produce the same satisfaction. It's not an artifact, a human foible like that researched by social psychologists, but an example of Apple's efforts to produce a succession of great user-centric products.
If there is a seachange occurring leading to a growing legion of switchers , another psychological theory needs to be invoked to understand and accelerate the conversion rate:
Restraint Theory
What is that, you might ask? Let me offer a psychologist's explanation:
Landing back in Sydney after the long haul trans-Pacific flight, I headed to the airline lounge and saw the local newspaper magazine's cover story, entitled, "Our Diet Obsession".
If you are like many Westerners you may have dieted for weight loss at one (or two or more times) in your life. That is, you may have gone on a diet plan which prescribes some restrictions to assist weight loss: calories (or kilojoules); carbs, protein, fats, sugars, etc.
Now I don't mean specialised dietary plans for medical and metabolic conditions here, like diabetes and PKU.
I mean the sort of diet "plans" you see when you walk into any bookstore and see the latest releases. Any diet that promotes restriction, in fact.
The idea is that you rigidly stay on the diet, religiously follow the meal plans, and - poof! - in weeks you have dropped xx lbs. and can now fit into that suit or gown for the wedding/reuinion/anniversary or for the new job, relationship, or whatever. Or because your doctor just told you about your blood pressure and cholesterol reading. Which is lowered for most, initially, through weight loss.
Anyway, you also know that after the initial thrill of going "on the diet" and seeing the first pounds drop off (usually water, but that's a another story), feeling you have stopped the sliding and are taking charge of your life, certain hurdles start to get in the way.
Whatever they may be, it steadily becomes harder to restrict your eating to the foods in the published plan, or to the recommended amounts.
Trying to live a normal life this way gets harder, and you feel like a spring winding ever so tightly. That's one effect of restraint. (By the way, naturally thin people who know nothing of dieting will have to find their own metaphor restraint - perhaps smoking or drinking - or go on a weight-reduction diet and see their weight increase eventually when they stop the diet. True! Would I lie to you?)
At some point the strain of dieting (restraint) gets to most people - probably 95% of people to judge by the success rates of people who keep any weight lost through this means off for more than 12 months. And brother, when that spring busts - think of a rubberband wound too tightly - then boooiinnnng! - the dam wall breaks, and you go for broke on the next visit to the buffet.
It's not hunger that does it - most people who constantly diet and allow others to regulate their eating behaviours grossly disturb their body's own rhythms, image and needs - but the loss of restraint: "To hell with it... I've busted the diet, so might as well go the whole hog!" Followed with delicious lashings of guilt and self-remorse.
This loss of restraint has been researched, and applied to other human behaviours, by Canadian researchers, Janet Polivy and Peter Herman, amongst others.They have over 20 years described Restraint Theory, relapse prevention, self-help methods, and most recently "false hope" when it comes to personal change.
What has this got to do with Apple and iPods I hear you ask?
Well, it's not enough to have people admire Apple products in order to make the switch. Many do have such admiration but still don't switch.
But they also must be unhappy enough with themselves, that is, with their Windows' experience and have faith (instilled by the iPod experience) that the necessary investment of time and money in new equipment, software and learning curve, will be sufficient to allow a new way of computing to occur permanently. If you travel around the Macweb you'll come across how often switchers vow never to go back...
Surprised and satisfied with their iPod, their restriction to the Microsoft-restrained lifestyle is busted: a diet of malware, spyware, crapware, BSoD, and non-intuitive interface issues (i.e., a computer-centric, rather than user-centric experience).
The smorgasboard of "all you can eat" software and hardware, initially so attractive and fawned over by PC salestaff, no longer cuts it. Once they have allowed themselves to conceive of Apple as a product they could own and happily use, restraint goes out the window. This is even more demonstrable for those who have borne long-term Apple antipathy - think "reformed smoker". (I could invoke another social psychology concept, cognitive dissonance, at this point, but I'll leave it to another entry.)
Windows users are forced to conclude there is another life outside the restrictions of the Windows lifestyle. (I talked to a number of innovators at CES. They were using Linux for their servers so as not to be locked into the Windows hegemony. Check Doc Searls entry in Russell Beattie's blog prematurely spouting Microsoft's digital media success for his take).
Apple users don't see this aspect, unless they have spent time as I have working with switchers, and trying to understand their motivations. Indeed, Macheads don't understand why people use Windows in the first place (it's simple really: 1. Herd mentality (need for affiliation, safety in numbers); 2. FUD; 3. $ invested) to know how hard it is to switch in the second place.
Restraint theory explains this better than the halo effect. Once people have an Apple product in their hands which they can use with their Windows PCs, you can invoke restraint theory. Consumers don't have to stay on a restrictive diet of Microsoft-only products which falsely promise the earth (i.e., the dieter's hoped-for slimness, attractiveness, acceptance by others, fitting in to mainstream society...) only to deliver spyware, malware and frustration, in the belief this is what computing's all about. The self-talk here is: "Just accept it - it's good enough".
On the other hand, while Apple products are aesthetically pleasing (I somethimes joke more Apple design neuronal activity goes into its packaging than other brands' product design), their best feature is that they work: easily, simply and reliably.
(While Apple was not officially present at CES, its products were, working to show other manufacturers' wares to their best advantage.)
This way you bust out of the "diet lifetstyle" maintained by the Windows' way of doing things. In a world of plenty (so many choices of Windows-based products and applications), ulitmately you have less choice in how you go about your computing experience. You must install anti-this and ant-that ware, and remain ever-vigilant. That represents choice?
As I have written in another entry, so what if you have so many Windows boxes to choose from - ultimately, with all running the same OS, the choice comes to hardware. My visit to the CES showed me that more choices doesn't necessarily make for more innovation - just lower prices. And more "paradox of choice".
That's might seem a good thing for most people. But not for everyone. After all, Psychology is also the study of Individual Differences.
And maybe one day inexpensive will be the Apple way too. But for now, once the dam has broken and consumers allow themselves the affordable luxury of using an Apple product by way of the iPod, I am hopeful that many will allow themselves the further luxury of exploring other Apple products, knowing (halo effect) that expensive can equal better value in the long run as well as pride of ownership (emotional satisfaction, not to be discounted).
The irony here is that Restraint Theory plays on the Borgian concept that Resistance is Futile. Once they allow an Apple product into their hand and household, and experience how it works, the door to consider other Apple products springs open for some. For others, it's perhaps experienced more as light at the end of a dark tunnel.
Next week at MacWorld, we will see if Apple heads in a new direction, if mention is made of halo theory, or if Steve Jobs' Keynote contains elements of Restraint Theory without using that term. I can't see him not mentioning switchers.
I'm guessing he will show things - products, software, services, ideas - that will make our mouths gape wide open, lots of "Yes, that makes sense!" and much glowing of admiration and pride of ownership and belonging.
And how I wish I could enjoy it live like those attending MacWorld, rather than by delayed webcast.
By the way, that's the sort of restraint theory I could do without, Steve.
Update: Thanks to Robert Scoble to linking to Michael Hyatt's blog where you can read of restraint theory in action. Not just through Apple's iPod's effect on him, but by virtue of sitting through a Keynote presentation. This guy, an expert in Powerpoint, was blown away. This is what he wrote:
"This morning after church, I went to a Board Meeting for a new startup company called The Orthodox Project. Joel Smith, my good friend and the entrepreneur who started the company, made a presentation on a Mac, using a package from Apple called KeyNote. Oh my gosh! Have you seen this?
I am not easily impressed, especially by anything that resembles PowerPoint. Even though I use the software extensively, I sometimes wonder if we would be better off if PowerPoint was banned from corporate meetings. The bullets and transitions are so predictable. They often end up as a substitute for genuine thinking. Like someone said to me in a meeting last week, "Start-up a PowerPoint presentation and the average IQ of the room drops by 10 points." I'm afraid he might be right.
But KeyNote is different. First starters, the slides are beautiful. The rendering of the type is extraordinary, like a high-quality printed piece. (I since learned that this is a function of Mac OS X.) The transitions were especially cool, graceful, and seamless. The closest thing I have seen to this is PowerPlug Transitions, but it has always seemed a little too self-conscious, like too much cologne or a drum track that is too loud. KeyNote's transitions on the other hand are elegant and understated.
... This is the first software that has made me seriously consider buying a Mac for myself. No, I'm not ready to switch computers. I do have too big an investment -both in software and know-how - to consider switching. But I just might be able to justify buying a Mac for presentations. In my job, I make lots of them, so it might just be worth it. As you can tell, the process of rationalizing the purchase has already begun." |
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