"Mom, stop buying music on CDs for us. We can get as much as we like on our own: Dangerous signs ahead for the music industry

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"Mom, stop buying music on CDs for us. We can get as much as we like on our own: Dangerous signs ahead for the music industry

Date Created: 01 Jul, 2006, 02:11 AM

Ever since I've been thinking much more seriously about presentation skills - and developing a side line practice in it which may well take over my clinical work - I've been noticing signs.

Now the signs can be the ones that first come to mind - those containing visible symbols which convey messages very quickly. Think of traffic signs, their colours (often black on yellow), size and placement relevant to the information they're offering. Where does a sign that says a right curve is coming up and should be taken at 40km/h get placed for maximum effect? There is a whole science here of course.

And what of roadside billboards which is aimed at motorists driving by? The advertiser has just a few moments to grab the driver's attention and get their message across. Again, a real science.

The sign below is from the dribble.com site of "billboards we'd like to see!"

Occasionally, I use these signs to show the power of illustrations to get messages across quickly if not subtly, as compared to lines and lines of text on a slide.

But there are other signs which are not visible but are "noticed" as something which has changed over time. They are not immediately noticeable even if they can be seen quickly. Huh?

Let me explain.

In the last few months, my residential street has been undergoing some changes. Lots of renovations occurring meaning all manner of trucks and service vehicles clogging it up, since it's a narrow street. It's two way, but at the top end where I live you can only leave to a main road, but not enter.

In this time, the top end has become quite crowded during the day with cars parked there which don't stay overnight. So I can presume they're visitors' cars or people who are leaving their cars there for the day. But why the seemingly sudden increase?

One morning, up early to take Shrek for his walk, I saw a number of people park their cars at the top end of the street and saw them walk to the main road. So I followed. And noticed where they walked - to the nearby Malvern railway station (above, left) which is a two minute walk.

Indeed, whenever I need to go downtown I always use the train service which gets me there, 8km away, in 7 - 12 minutes depending on whether it's an express or not. Even travelling quite far afield, I will now use the train. It's convenient, and cheaper. And that's the clue.

In recent months, the price of fuel has really started to hit home, at $1.40 per litre. A year ago it was around 90c. So even though we're in the middle of a rather cold winter, more and more people are using public transport rather than their cars.

So for me my inability to easily park my car during the day due to lack of space is a sign of the fuel pricing really starting to squeeze.

I heard another sign today of changes which will continue to deeply affect the music and creative arts.

I have a friend with two teenage children living at home with her.

For many years, for their birthdays, she has purchased music CDs for them, asking them first for their favourite artists.

This year for the first time they both turned to her and said, "Mom, don't worry about it this year. We don't need any music."

She was shocked. These are kids who go to listen to bands every week, who do their studies listening to music, who asked for iPods as special gifts, and who share music experiences with their friends.

They love music, and their whole listening to music, live and recorded, experience.

So she was shocked when they said they'd prefer her not to buy them music this year.

When she asked why not, their answer was simple: we can get all the music we want for ourselves.

Of course, perhaps they're also of an age when they don't want Mommy to be buying their music for them, and they prefer to share with their peers, now their most important behavioural influences.

But when she asked for more information, thinking that perhaps with their iPods they were downloading music from iTunes, she discovered they did this very occasionally. Instead, their main sources of music are their friends with whom they share burning CDs or sending files by MSN messenger or email, or via the peer-to-peer file sharing network, Limewire.

In other words, they were saving their money for live bands and thought nothing of the legalities of downloading from Limewire. They had no philosophical opposition to how the Big 5 control 70% of the music industry; it was just more expedient to save money for other purposes and engage in music sharing with peers.

This nothing new to the music industry, but when she told me the story I saw it as yet another tangible sign, apart from my own of not having purchased a CD for years supplemented by occasional iTunes music store purchases, that the industry is in real trouble.

Unless they have a really funky business model to challenge the p2p file sharing, and given iTunes is but a few per cent of the total amount of music downloaded, the music industry is going nowhere fast, and they know it.

What are your signs of change in the wings? How soon do you notice the signs if they're not immediate? Is mainstream media facing the same dilemma of how to keep young folk interested in their wares when they can make so much of it for themselves, or share relevant info from Myspace-style websites.

The time sure are a'changing.