Tipping Point



I recently finished reading the book "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell. Fascinating read. The book discusses how small, seemingly insignificant stimuli can cause a social epidemic to rage across the country and even around the world.

The classic example, cited early in the book is the "broken window" phenomenon: a single broken window in a neighborhood, left unrepaired, can eventually lead to a crime wave in the area. The steps by which this occurs are simple. More windows are broken (and left unrepaired). Graffiti appears. Potential muggers (and worse) reason that since no one cares about the shabbiness of the neighborhood, they won't care enough to stop or report their crime (this "reasoning" is not necessarily on a conscious level).

I earlier cited an example of this broken window syndrome in regard to Windows on a PC, where no one seems to care enough about the state of Windows insecurity, so crackers, hucksters thieves prey on unsuspecting computer users with adware, spyware and spam.

This phenomenon can work in reverse, also: the book outlines how the City of New York was able to bring a 20-year old crime wave to an end in the early 90's. They started on the subways by cracking down on fare cheaters, a modest move if there ever was one. But fare cheating was rampant, and the fact it was not stopped sent a message that no one cared. Now, however, someone did care, and almost miraculously, other bad behavior went away also. Other steps were taken: wipe out graffiti on the cars before it ever saw the light of day. These small steps had amazing consequences for the safety of everyone riding the subway system.

Tipping points occur everywhere. One discussion in the book is how to prevent kids from getting hooked on cigarettes. It turns out that, although nicotine is addictive, it is not immediately nor always addictive. Many people smoke a few cigarettes a day, but can go days between cigarettes without discomfort. It is only when a smoker gets to a certain level of smoking (a pack or more a day) that he gets permanently hooked. The occasional pleasure "tips" and becomes a habit that is not easily broken.

The stories Gladwell are telling and convincing. I find myself considering social epidemics, like blogging, for instance (!) One I mentioned the other day is podcasting, which is fast catching up with blogging.

The popularity of the iPod is another example (which is what originally made podcasting possible, or at least conceivable). It's a cautionary tale to Apple how the Airwalk company, started to make specialized shoes for skateboarders, first achieved success and then eventually went into decline. The company exploited many of the mechanisms by which social epidemics grow: they catered to the "cool" set among the skateboarders, and the shoes caught on and sales skyrocketed. After a few years of this kind of success, the company made a few strategic blunders that compromised the brand, and almost as rapidly as the company's fortunes grew, they then shrank. iPod is riding high at the moment, but it is possible for Apple to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if they make false steps. And it usually becomes easy to make false steps when a company begins to believe in its invincibility. Apple beware!

I think of the social epidemic started by Napster: free downloading of songs. What caused that to tip? The music companies are concerned with how to "untip" that phenomenon. Will their strategy of lawsuits cause a tip the other way? Will legal download services cause the illegal ones to dry up and become insignificant? I actually think it's possible. There are numerous examples of successfully "competing against free" by offering better quicker service. I don't think the key has been found yet, but Apple is surely close.

Anyway, The Tipping Point is a good and thought-provoking read. Recommended.

Posted: Fri - February 25, 2005 at 09:27 PM        

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