Ségolène Royal has won the socialist party nomination to run for President next year.

She is the only French Socialist with a chance of winning.

Her policies are either vague or odd. But she is certainly tough and unmistakably charismatic.

So, were I working on one of the campaigns, would I rather be in her position or that of M. Sarkozy just about now?

The truth is, both are eye-catching politicians, though flawed -- as they all are, baby. They all are. Neither looks like they have a flaw that makes them unelectable - such as Lionel Jospin's terminally dull personality, which doomed his candidacy five years ago, or (US Democratic contender) Howard Dean's air of fringe anarchy.

Both have been around long enough to have solid campaign skills and teams. Neither would surprise if they said something that ran the whole train off the rails. Neither is as moronic as George Bush or sleazy as Baldy McSlaphead.

Sarko is more pro-American and less patient with French statism, which makes him appealing. But he dog whistles to racists, so the sooner he is buried, the better.

Ségo panders. I'm not too worried that she is consistently seen as ambitious, self-serving and calculating: Those are indispensable qualities for successful political leadership (regrettably, but stilll...fact).

Who has the better strategic position today to win the Presidential elections in late April and Early May '07?

Sarko has the advantages and disadvantages of incumbency. He can control the agenda better. But he is also forced onto the defensive. He has mostly distanced himself from both President Slaphead Jack and Prime Minister Villepin - not easy for the most powerful minister.

But to set the agenda one has to propose ideas and for French governments that's a bad thing: any suggestions for change bring scorn; protests pour into the street, the talk shows and the newspapers. It always ends with politicians running away to hide. Sarkozy has been pretty good at making provocative comments without putting much weight behind them.

Despite the entrenched refusal to do any actual changing, there is rising political demand for change. Of course, exactly what change is the problem so no one is defining the change needed.

Anyway, I'm not convinced France needs radical change, so much as re-orientation and adaptation. Both, realistically, offer that.

But a mood for change is bad for incumbency. Overall, then, incumbency is maybe a net negative for Sarko.

Ségo has tidied up the nomination early and should be able to rally her party united behind her. Sarkozy isn't even sure if he will run against Chirac and could face a debilitating, resource-sapping, party-splitting glide path into the finals. Chirac probably won't run because he knows he would be humiliated. But he can damage and even destroy Sarko, which forces Sarko to play some of Chirac's games. Chirac might go out of his way to foot-trip Sarko.

So momentum is a net positive for Ségo.

There are doubts about Ségo: She can't point to much of substance that says 'vote for me'. She can only point to a mood she has captured. Don't doubt the value of mood. The risk is that pressure forces her into specifics that are so far unknown or that a hidden agenda gets exposed. Then the camapign gets derailed.

Sarko has a record behind him. He looks a less risky choice. Voters are risk averse.

Ségo got whupped in the candidate debates. She will go into the finals with low expectations, which is good for her, but to me she looks accident prone in the campaign.

The campaign skills thing then favours Sarko. By miles.

Then there is the excitement generated by Ségo being the first woman with a shot at the top. I have met a few woman who are motivated behind her because of this. It makes her look like change - the sort of change the electorate can swallow, cos no one gets hurt. I have also seen hints of her being resented for being a woman - both among woman and men. Is France a more sexist society than anywhere else? I doubt it.

So I think the gender factor is a big plus for Ségo. It gives her automatic support among a section of the electorate. It gives her sympathetic magazines stories - the ones that appear over and over in women's magazines asking 'is she like us?' and 'is it important she's a woman?' Well of course the readers will define that as an issue and say, 'yes I approve'. They will see the soft shots of her and think 'yes, she looks attractive'. So that's pretty good for her and Sarkozy can't get any of it.

Finally, the polls are roughly even but give a slight edge to Sarko. Ségo will get a bump from the nomination.

Looking back over this, it reads as if the campaign that looks best right now is Ségo's. But I would still install Sarko as the favourite. For now.

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