I still have faith
My wife and I are going to a Lamont fundraiser
tonight, bringing to mind that I've had very little to say about the Lamont
campaign lately. For the most part that's because so many others cover it full
time.
Nonetheless, it's a sure thing that everyone has been wondering: what does CTBlue think is going to happen on election day? Well, somebody may be wondering.
The polls have been all over, with Lieberman's lead anywhere from 13 to 2 points. I have no idea which are the most accurate, but I'm going to guess that right now he is 6 points ahead.
I predicted months ago that Ned would win, and I still feel that way, though I must admit one of my basic rationales for taking that position has not (yet) panned out. Even I never believed the Republicans would throw Schlesinger under the bus the way they have. Even for them, it's incredibly dishonorable.They have caricatured the man beyond belief. They'd have us believe that his past gambing problems (such as they were) cast a shadow on his fitness for the office. This from the party that doesn't have much of a problem with pedophile enablers.
The fact is that Schlesinger had the brains to realize early on that Lamont would win the primary. That puts him one up on all the other Republicans. Even the gambling "problem" is not necessarily a minus. The ability to count cards may not be a direct qualification for the U.S. Senate, but it bespeaks an agile mind. You don't get thrown out of a casino for being a card counter, you get thrown out for being a good card counter.
So my guess is that Schlesinger will do well in the debates. If he can even double his present miserable showing, that spells real trouble for Joe. Every point he goes up is one down for Joe. Joe will be aiming his fire at Lamont, but Schlesinger will be aiming at Joe. My guess is that he'll establish himself as a worthy enough candidate to lure back some of the die hard Republicans.
That's one point in Ned's favor. Another is Lieberman's lack of a ground game, or at least his presumed lack thereof. Apparently we are about to find out whether you can buy a loyal cadre of election day supporters. If you can't Lieberman suffers mostly in the 1st and 3rd district, where the Republicans will be doing little or nothing in terms of getting out the vote. In the other districts, with close Congressional races, the Republicans will be doing his work for him. This assumes, of course, that Ned has a good ground game, which is a wide spread assumption, but may not be universally true. At least here in Groton, there is not much coordination between his campaign and Courtney's.
Lieberman's supporters are the least motivated, Lamont's are highly motivated. That should make a difference. I'm not persuaded that ballot position makes that much of a difference, but it certainly can't help Lieberman. When you're relying on unmotivated, "low information" voters, you have your work cut out for you.
If the Democratic tide hasn't reached its full, as the polls indicate, that should also help Lamont among the independents. By election day there may be a lot of people who just decide to vote straight D.
Finally, it is going to start to leak out to Lieberman's remaining Democratic supporters that he is not going to return the favor. It seems pretty clear that Lieberman will jump ship unless the Democrats decisively take control. His studied indifference to the fate of the Democratic party, combined with the chips the Republicans are laying down, which they will expect to cash, are clear indications of what is in the wind. Joe will leave if it suits his purposes, and it will most likely suit his purposes. He will stay only if we are in a position to say "good riddance".
It is to be hoped that Lieberman will be asked about this issue in the upcoming debates. Lamont should be prepared to press him on it. There's no conceivable reason for Joe to be equivocal about this, and if he is, then use the point to show that at this point in his career, all Joe cares about is himself and holding on to power. Among other things, he needs to be tied to a Republican party that even a lot of Republicans can't stand.
So, long and short, I still think Ned will win. It's going to be close, for sure. How ironic would it be if it were close enough for Joe to challenge the results, using the same Republican hit team that stole the 2000 election? This time he'd have no problem with challenging votes from service people.
Addendum: So far as I'm able to find, the debate at the Garde tomorrow will not be televised. I hope I'm wrong about that.
Updated Addendum: Duh!. The debate at the Garde isn't until next week. The debate tomorrow is in Stamford.
Nonetheless, it's a sure thing that everyone has been wondering: what does CTBlue think is going to happen on election day? Well, somebody may be wondering.
The polls have been all over, with Lieberman's lead anywhere from 13 to 2 points. I have no idea which are the most accurate, but I'm going to guess that right now he is 6 points ahead.
I predicted months ago that Ned would win, and I still feel that way, though I must admit one of my basic rationales for taking that position has not (yet) panned out. Even I never believed the Republicans would throw Schlesinger under the bus the way they have. Even for them, it's incredibly dishonorable.They have caricatured the man beyond belief. They'd have us believe that his past gambing problems (such as they were) cast a shadow on his fitness for the office. This from the party that doesn't have much of a problem with pedophile enablers.
The fact is that Schlesinger had the brains to realize early on that Lamont would win the primary. That puts him one up on all the other Republicans. Even the gambling "problem" is not necessarily a minus. The ability to count cards may not be a direct qualification for the U.S. Senate, but it bespeaks an agile mind. You don't get thrown out of a casino for being a card counter, you get thrown out for being a good card counter.
So my guess is that Schlesinger will do well in the debates. If he can even double his present miserable showing, that spells real trouble for Joe. Every point he goes up is one down for Joe. Joe will be aiming his fire at Lamont, but Schlesinger will be aiming at Joe. My guess is that he'll establish himself as a worthy enough candidate to lure back some of the die hard Republicans.
That's one point in Ned's favor. Another is Lieberman's lack of a ground game, or at least his presumed lack thereof. Apparently we are about to find out whether you can buy a loyal cadre of election day supporters. If you can't Lieberman suffers mostly in the 1st and 3rd district, where the Republicans will be doing little or nothing in terms of getting out the vote. In the other districts, with close Congressional races, the Republicans will be doing his work for him. This assumes, of course, that Ned has a good ground game, which is a wide spread assumption, but may not be universally true. At least here in Groton, there is not much coordination between his campaign and Courtney's.
Lieberman's supporters are the least motivated, Lamont's are highly motivated. That should make a difference. I'm not persuaded that ballot position makes that much of a difference, but it certainly can't help Lieberman. When you're relying on unmotivated, "low information" voters, you have your work cut out for you.
If the Democratic tide hasn't reached its full, as the polls indicate, that should also help Lamont among the independents. By election day there may be a lot of people who just decide to vote straight D.
Finally, it is going to start to leak out to Lieberman's remaining Democratic supporters that he is not going to return the favor. It seems pretty clear that Lieberman will jump ship unless the Democrats decisively take control. His studied indifference to the fate of the Democratic party, combined with the chips the Republicans are laying down, which they will expect to cash, are clear indications of what is in the wind. Joe will leave if it suits his purposes, and it will most likely suit his purposes. He will stay only if we are in a position to say "good riddance".
It is to be hoped that Lieberman will be asked about this issue in the upcoming debates. Lamont should be prepared to press him on it. There's no conceivable reason for Joe to be equivocal about this, and if he is, then use the point to show that at this point in his career, all Joe cares about is himself and holding on to power. Among other things, he needs to be tied to a Republican party that even a lot of Republicans can't stand.
So, long and short, I still think Ned will win. It's going to be close, for sure. How ironic would it be if it were close enough for Joe to challenge the results, using the same Republican hit team that stole the 2000 election? This time he'd have no problem with challenging votes from service people.
Addendum: So far as I'm able to find, the debate at the Garde tomorrow will not be televised. I hope I'm wrong about that.
Updated Addendum: Duh!. The debate at the Garde isn't until next week. The debate tomorrow is in Stamford.
Posted: Sunday - October 15, 2006 at 03:01 PM
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Published On: Apr 17, 2007 07:18 PM
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Published On: Apr 17, 2007 07:18 PM