I got the call
Tonight I got a call from the Lieberman campaign
(they're calling all the delegates), and I am still patting myself on the
back.
Those who read this blog and don't know me personally probably judge me on the basis of my finely honed prose, and the piercing insights that I am able to express so articulately. What most of you don't know is that I'm only able to do so (to the extent that I actually do) because I am working with the written word. Most of the time I sound fairly reasonable, I think. That's because I can go over and over what I'm saying before I push the publish button.
However, in person, I'm a different animal. Get me talking about Joe Lieberman, for instance, and before you know it I become an incoherent, sputtering rage machine. It's all I can do to sprinkle some regular words among the obscenities. So, knowing that I was going to get a call at some point, I decided that I was going to make an effort to contain my rage and try to sound reasonable and coherent. And I'm proud to say, I largely succeeded.
To be honest, I felt sorry for the caller, who seemed like a perfectly nice guy. I had the impression that he had become used to being beaten up by the people he had been calling. He said he'd heard a lot of what I was saying from a lot of other people, so life can't be pleasant for him at the moment. It couldn't have helped that he clearly had his own reservations about Joe. And I give him credit. He must have known which way I was "leaning" in the first two minutes, but we probably talked for at least ten minutes, even though I'm quite sure he realized that I was a hopeless case.
I don't know if he had a set of talking points or not, but I thought one of the weakest arguments he tried to make was that Lamont would lose a two way race against a Republican. Not bloody likely this year. He also asked me if Lamont could be as effective as Lieberman, and I pointed out that whether or not he was as effective, he clearly could not do as much harm. The argument that Lieberman is good on a lot of issues has always seemed, in these rather unique circumstances, as being largely beside the point. It's not at all likely that Lamont will be worse on any of those issues, and he'll be better on many. More to the point, he's unlikely to work so hard at undermining the Democrats by burnishing his image of "independence" by cozying up to Fox News, et. al. The caller also pulled out the old chestnut about how Democrats can only win if they can appeal to those outside the party, i.e, the hoary DLC trope. That argument certainly has a lot of staying power, seeing as it has failed in practice for the past 20 years or so, while the Republicans have won by concentrating on an ever more narrow base. Even if it made sense, why should support for the Iraq war be the issue on which we appeal to these mythical voters, since discontent with the war seems endemic in all but the most die hard Republicans?
So, anyway, I didn't sputter at all. My wife was a witness, so she can bear me out. Next challenge: maintaining cogency if I get the chance to ask Lieberman a question on Sunday.
Now, a digression.
I would love to know what Lieberman is getting by way of feedback, on a numerical basis. I think the optimal result of the convention would be a Lieberman win with 40% of the vote. Lamont would get credibility, Lieberman would be wounded, but he would be in a position which would make it very difficult for him to plan for an independent candidacy. The ultimate results might depend, to a great extent, on the different approaches the town committees take to appointing and/or instructing delegates. I was talking to the Town Chair from North Stonington today, and he says that their custom is to instruct their delegates how to vote on the first ballot. Here in Groton the town committee makes no attempt to instruct the delegates, nor was there any debate this year about the delegate nominees. We weren't asked who we supported, and had we been, most of the interest would probably have centered on the gubernatorial race, rather than the Senate. If most committees are like ours, then I think Lamont's totals may surprise. I went out of my way to get on the delegation, just to vote against Lieberman. I don't think there are many people who did the same just to vote for him. There is no enthusiasm for him. One or two motivated Lamont people from each town committee adds up to a hefty percentage. Add to that the towns where anti Lieberman sentiment is strong, and an effort may have been made to pick only Lamont supporters, and you are left with the possibility that Lamont will do far better than anyone expected. My guess is that Lamont's support would be decreased if most town committee's operate like North Stonington. In any event, it's almost inconceivable that Lamont won't get the 15% he needs to force a primary.
ADDENDUM: Sorry, I must have been bleary eyed when I wrote that last paragraph. I meant the optimum result of the convention would be that Lieberman gets around 60% of the vote. You can't win with 40% in a two way race. Sorry about that.
Those who read this blog and don't know me personally probably judge me on the basis of my finely honed prose, and the piercing insights that I am able to express so articulately. What most of you don't know is that I'm only able to do so (to the extent that I actually do) because I am working with the written word. Most of the time I sound fairly reasonable, I think. That's because I can go over and over what I'm saying before I push the publish button.
However, in person, I'm a different animal. Get me talking about Joe Lieberman, for instance, and before you know it I become an incoherent, sputtering rage machine. It's all I can do to sprinkle some regular words among the obscenities. So, knowing that I was going to get a call at some point, I decided that I was going to make an effort to contain my rage and try to sound reasonable and coherent. And I'm proud to say, I largely succeeded.
To be honest, I felt sorry for the caller, who seemed like a perfectly nice guy. I had the impression that he had become used to being beaten up by the people he had been calling. He said he'd heard a lot of what I was saying from a lot of other people, so life can't be pleasant for him at the moment. It couldn't have helped that he clearly had his own reservations about Joe. And I give him credit. He must have known which way I was "leaning" in the first two minutes, but we probably talked for at least ten minutes, even though I'm quite sure he realized that I was a hopeless case.
I don't know if he had a set of talking points or not, but I thought one of the weakest arguments he tried to make was that Lamont would lose a two way race against a Republican. Not bloody likely this year. He also asked me if Lamont could be as effective as Lieberman, and I pointed out that whether or not he was as effective, he clearly could not do as much harm. The argument that Lieberman is good on a lot of issues has always seemed, in these rather unique circumstances, as being largely beside the point. It's not at all likely that Lamont will be worse on any of those issues, and he'll be better on many. More to the point, he's unlikely to work so hard at undermining the Democrats by burnishing his image of "independence" by cozying up to Fox News, et. al. The caller also pulled out the old chestnut about how Democrats can only win if they can appeal to those outside the party, i.e, the hoary DLC trope. That argument certainly has a lot of staying power, seeing as it has failed in practice for the past 20 years or so, while the Republicans have won by concentrating on an ever more narrow base. Even if it made sense, why should support for the Iraq war be the issue on which we appeal to these mythical voters, since discontent with the war seems endemic in all but the most die hard Republicans?
So, anyway, I didn't sputter at all. My wife was a witness, so she can bear me out. Next challenge: maintaining cogency if I get the chance to ask Lieberman a question on Sunday.
Now, a digression.
I would love to know what Lieberman is getting by way of feedback, on a numerical basis. I think the optimal result of the convention would be a Lieberman win with 40% of the vote. Lamont would get credibility, Lieberman would be wounded, but he would be in a position which would make it very difficult for him to plan for an independent candidacy. The ultimate results might depend, to a great extent, on the different approaches the town committees take to appointing and/or instructing delegates. I was talking to the Town Chair from North Stonington today, and he says that their custom is to instruct their delegates how to vote on the first ballot. Here in Groton the town committee makes no attempt to instruct the delegates, nor was there any debate this year about the delegate nominees. We weren't asked who we supported, and had we been, most of the interest would probably have centered on the gubernatorial race, rather than the Senate. If most committees are like ours, then I think Lamont's totals may surprise. I went out of my way to get on the delegation, just to vote against Lieberman. I don't think there are many people who did the same just to vote for him. There is no enthusiasm for him. One or two motivated Lamont people from each town committee adds up to a hefty percentage. Add to that the towns where anti Lieberman sentiment is strong, and an effort may have been made to pick only Lamont supporters, and you are left with the possibility that Lamont will do far better than anyone expected. My guess is that Lamont's support would be decreased if most town committee's operate like North Stonington. In any event, it's almost inconceivable that Lamont won't get the 15% he needs to force a primary.
ADDENDUM: Sorry, I must have been bleary eyed when I wrote that last paragraph. I meant the optimum result of the convention would be that Lieberman gets around 60% of the vote. You can't win with 40% in a two way race. Sorry about that.
Posted: Wednesday - April 19, 2006 at 09:33 PM
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Published On: Apr 17, 2007 07:17 PM
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