Don't start raising money for your 2010 Senatorial campaign


For some reason, there has been discussion out there (e.g, Swing State Projects comments) about the fact that Dodd's lawyer wrote to the FEC to say he is no longer officially a candidate for Senate in 2010. I don't even have to check out the legalities of all this to confidently assert that the only reason Dodd's lawyer wrote the letter was to lay the legal basis for Dodd to transfer money from his Senatorial campaign to his presidential campaign.

It is therefore more than premature to start talking about alternative candidacies in 2010. Dodd has to be elected president in 2008 or he has to decide to retire after the 2008 election. In the unlikely event that he is nominated for president, then I think he would win. That means someone replaces him in 2008. Unless the law is changed (which might happen) that person will be a Republican, who might have a decent chance of winning in 2010 if the Democrats are still in power (especially with a Democratic president) at that point.

But the true bottom line is that the overwhelming probability is that Dodd will not get the nomination, and he will "change his mind" about running for re-election in 2010.
Posted: Sunday - January 21, 2007 at 04:17 PM          

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