October 9th Update According to the most recent state polls, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico and Maine are too close to call. Based on polling trends I show each slightly favoring one candidate or the other but clearly, the numbers are well within the margin of error for any poll. These states are worth a total of 79 electoral votes and all where carried by Al Gore in 2000. Despite a tightening in Nationwide numbers, it appears that Senator Kerry remains the underdog. President Bush has a reasonably good lead in every state that he won in 2000 plus Wisconsin and Iowa. A marginal shift in the race could easily put Florida and Ohio in play, which at this point seems the only viable option for a Kerry victory. He'd have to win one of those two and regain states that have moved to the right since 2000.
Once Solid Blue Now Tinted Red

Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa have voted as a block for the Democrat in the past 4 elections. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican since the Nixon landslide in 1972 and before that, it was Eisenhower. It's clear there has been a demographic shift in this part of the country. Al Gore won each by very slim margins in 2000. It now appears that, with the exception of Minnesota, these states have moved comfortably into Bush's electoral war chest. This could be a strategically important battleground for the Republicans in future elections because the three states equal Florida's 27 electoral votes but are not an all or nothing race. If Senator Kerry loses here, even a pick-up of Florida or Ohio won't be enough to win.

The data shows that these states have shifted since the 1980's. In '84 and '88, this region voted left of the National margin by an average of nearly 15%. In the '92 and '96, Wisconsin and Iowa had moved to within 2 points of the National margin while Minnesota remained safely in the blue. After the 2000 election it became clear that they all had joined the rank of battlegrounds. It's not entirely clear what effect strong 3rd party candidates had on margins during the past 3 elections. What is clear is that these folks are independent voters and third party candidates do very well here.

Many still consider Minnesota to be safely Democrat. Recent polls however, show the race to be dead even. Throughout the 80's and 90's inner urban areas and the iron range voted so heavily Democratic that there was little hope the rest of the state could make up the difference. What has changed? The suburbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul have added more than one million residents since 1980. These folks are moving here from all over the Nation and as a result, the voting habits of the state more closely match the Nation as a whole. The economy and job market also continue to outperform the National average.

Activist Democrats still hold a great deal of influence in the state and are particularly good at bringing like-minded voters to the polls. Not me or anyone else is likely to know who won here until the early hours of November 3rd.

What are My Projections Based On?

My projections are based on a composite of polls and do not directly reflect any one polling source. The states are listed in the order that I think they will be called with a rolling electoral vote count. Currently, I have President Bush winning around midnight CST. Although I'm not a polling expert, everything here is based on real data. I'm comfortable with the formulas that I use to combine multiple polling sources - when I run the numbers, the popular vote margin is directly in line with Nationwide polls.