Being here in China, and hearing the Chinese news reports, it is easy to understand the local perspective. A foreign spy plane, already unwelcome in skies above this country, either deliberately or accidentally causes a military plane to crash, killing the pilot. The government , which took no retaliatory action, asks for an apology from the offending country and is more or less told to get lost.
I hate to think what would have happened if this situation were reversed, with a Chinese spy plane flying over America. Assuming that we ever even let them get that close, I suspect we would have blasted them out of the sky the instant that one of our planes crashed, regardless of the cause
But all of the discussion about who is at fault (as if we were negotiating for the benefit of an insurance company covering an auto accident), seems almost irrelevant, considering that the American plane was spying. If I caught a burglar casing my house, and in the process of chasing him away, I injured myself, I would consider my distress to be the intruder's fault, even if my own clumsiness caused my injury.
The real question that I see is whether or not the American plane had any business flying and spying so close to China. Well, that depends; by international law, apparently yes. By common cold-war practices, also yes; flights like this go on every day. But does this mean that the Chinese have to like it and passively put up with it? Maybe not.
What Chinese people are most indignant about is that the American government doesn't seem to care in the least what anyone here thinks. The United States gives very little respect to China, a country five times the size of America, with the strongest economy in the region, and an almost bottomless consumer market. Instead, they support a tiny nation of disgruntled political opponents, with a population that is less than 2% of the parent nation.
China is trying like crazy to be taken seriously by the rest of the world. There is something very tragicomic in the nightly news stories, which show the president of China meeting with a "world leader" in some place like Luxembourg, pledging to maintain the "strategic alliance" between the two great countries. I know I sound like an arrogant American when I say this, but, *Luxembourg*; come on, who cares? But then, Germany, Japan, England, France, and the rest have already chosen their dance partner and China only gets to pick from the wallflowers.
China sees it self as being entitled to sit at the adult table now; especially after the farcical collapse of the Soviet Union. And yet the US still seems to pay more attention to what the latest alcoholic post-Soviet leader in the most pathetic splinter republic is doing than in anything that happens in China. Somehow, now that we have "defeated" our old cold war enemy, we are much more comfortable having political relations with him.
It reminds of when I was in grade school, and a new kid, who was something of a bully, moved into the neighborhood. He immediately drew the ire of the reigning bully and for weeks, they were the worst of enemies. Then one day after school, they had a fist fight to settle some alleged dispute, and the newcomer got trounced. Almost immediately, the two former sworn enemies were best friends. But it was also clear who was now the top dog, and who was the punk.
China isn't going to have any of that. If they're dealing with America, then it's going to be as equals, and not in a situation where we are the rich uncle and they are some servile little supplicant, shuffling for trade dollars. China has never had any lack of pride and with their recent economic growth, the chip on their shoulder isn't getting any smaller. Having the acknowledged world superpower stomping all over your territory is very hard to swallow.
About the best thing you can say about the recently ended stalemate is that nobody kicked anyone else's ass. It could have been a whole lot worse. For a long time, thinking about this letter, I planned to call it "War means never having to say you're sorry." But it hasn't turned out anywhere near that bad.
The President of China, Jiang Zemin, faced down popular opinion which was overwhelmingly in favor of standing tall against America and not budging an inch until we said "Uncle." Many people think Jiang is a weak leader; more than once I have heard people proudly say that "if Mao Zedong was still our leader, we would have shot that American plane down!" I have no idea if that is true, and neither do they, but it gives you an idea of how the Chinese Joe Six-Packs feel. Jiang has risked appearing even more weak by "giving in" to America for a small concession in language.
President Bush, to his credit, oversaw some tricky diplomatic negotiations and resisted the temptation to paint the Chinese as ruthless, godless, devils. I don't know what the popular opinion in America is, but it is easy for me to imagine that many Americans (but not the enlightened audience reading this, of course) were just as eager to draw blood as their Chinese counterparts.
The current state of the story here is that the negotiations will be continuing, with the next step being the formation of a joint US/China commission, meeting to settle the remaining disputes on April 18. I'm sure the everyone in America is thinking, "Yeah, right," like we care what China thinks or says, now that we got our people back. Keep the lousy plane if you want it, we'll come up with something better next year anyway.
But I suspect that more will go on behind the scenes than the public on either side will hear about. China has the opportunity to air its grievances with the United States in a forum convened for just that purpose. This next round of negotiations can go on almost forever, with nobody paying much attention, but attrition, if nothing else, will allow the Chinese to make some gains over what they have achieved so far. The Chinese are patient, and willing to devote as much time as necessary to getting the job done.
If any good comes of this, then I believe that it will have been due
to the two countries becoming more familiar with one another as a result
of their forced encounters. After enough time, the US and China will hopefully
know better what to expect from one another, and it will be easier to mend
fences when the inevitable diplomatic emergencies arise. The process of
opening up to one another, which started with Nixon and Mao sitting side
by side in plump armchairs, continues to surprise both parties. Seeing
it develop from the other side only helps to make it more interesting.