Decision Tools

Notes on software and processes for collecting, analyzing and acting on data

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Working Notes: Current Working Notes These notes are the contents of a whiteboard in Tinderbox that I'm using to map out my (more . . .)

Regularity and Large Numbers: Highly regular, predictable events are likely to be reducible to laws. Whether we consider an abstract mathematical relationship or (more . . .)

Edge cases and normative decision making: When studying decisions, its possible to examine optimal solutions, prescriptive Decision Theory, or to examine how people make decisions, often (more . . .)

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Working Notes : A predictive theory of reality

Taking the pragmatic view of evaluating the truth of a theory, we look only at its predictive value. The more generally a theory can predict, the more true it is. If it misses some cases or is not generally predictive, a truer theory can be found.

If metaphysics is a theory of reality, what can be predicted? I'm working towards a systems based metaphysics that takes complexity into account with probability. This view predicts that knowledge of reality is derived purely from interactions with the systems around us, but that knowledge is ultimately limited by our perspective and system complexity. Getting outside of a system and having a longer, broader view is needed to transcend the limitations.