An American in Asia: His Quest for Cosmic Truth (or at least a Decent Espresso)

 

Tourism Ministry says: "No Tanks. You're welcome!"

I really wanted to put a picture of a tank here, but no tanks in Phuket. A centipede was the most dangerous thing I could find.

I thought I'd gotten used to the fact that Thailand is full of surprises, but last Wednesday I woke up to a military coup. Surprise! We've got a junta.

The coup, which ousted former prime minister Thaksin while he was away at a UN meeting, has so far been bloodless. In fact the army tanks which are parked in the streets of Bangkok are surrounded, not by angry Thaksin supporters, but by playing children, girls with flowers and curious locals snapping pics.

Strangely, polls which placed Thaksin's ratings high in rural provinces last week now show unmitigated support for the coup in those same areas. One gets the impression that Thais are ready to support just about anything. Or that pollsters are.

Perhaps the reason for the positive reception is that Thaksin was getting everyone a little worried. He was well on the way to becoming a dictator himself, attempting to place his cronies at key army posts. His family made a billion dollars last year alone, which is a huge amount in the Third World. His government has been accused of being rife with corruption, but then the government was arguably corrupt before he ever got there.

The junta leader, general Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, has assured everyone that a civilian PM and government will be appointed (by the army) in two weeks. They will be tasked with drafting a new constitution and an election will be held late next year.

Brief synopsis of man-on-the-street interview from The Nation newspaper:

"Ek: I agree with the coup
Fon: I support the military coup
M: I support the coup
Sasiprabha: I don't agree with any coup but this time I do."

There you go.

However well the locals are taking this weird turn of events, the international community is a bit shocked and both tourism and foreign investment got a good swat on the nose with a rolled-up (and well-censored) newspaper.

Yes, censored. The military are keeping soldiers positioned at every major TV station and newpaper, while the minor ones have simply been shut down.

My wife's immediate (and amusing) reaction to the news was, "Oh, thank you Buddha, for keeping us from buying a house here!" We are anxiously awaiting her US visa approval.

Tourism Tripped

The rest of the world might not find it so funny. They went to bed in the '90s to the fairytale that Thailand is a democracy and all's well. The End. They wake up in 2006 to find that Santa Claus was just a wino in a red suit and Thailand is still in the throes of an ongoing coup pattern.

For the record, this one's number 18. Thailand has again demonstrated that its people are not yet mature enough to participate in a democracy and they sometimes want authority figures to handle all the choices.

Now, democracy may or may not be the right thing for Thailand. I'm not Thai so I can't say. However worldwide, it is the current fashion. Juntas went out with disco (but like disco, they keep coming back).

These days the rest of the world isn't used to dealing with military juntas unless they are sitting on a lot of oil. So while this solution seems to go down smoothely for Thais, foreign investment and tourism (which was the country's second biggest earner after the auto industry, last time I checked) are bound to suffer.

The tourism sector is already feeling the first pains. The cancellations are rolling in and the Association of Thai Travel Agents expects US$20million in lost tourism revenue for this month alone.

Foreign investment will soon follow. Investors have a funny fetish about only dealing with democracies. They thought Thailand was one, lulled by a 15 year lapse since the last coup.

Thaksin (don't) go home!

For the short term, the main worry is Thaksin's reaction. As long as he lays down and plays dead, things will proceed peacably. However, he is a hot-headed, unpredictable power-monger so it is an outside possibility that he may attempt a counter-coup, at which point things would get bloody.

Thaksin reportedly knew what was coming and left for the UN meeting with two Russian charter jets filled with suitcases and household furnishings. He is now shacked up in a very nice London mansion with the rest of his family. Hopefully he'll just open a beer, sit down in front of the telly and buy an English football team.

For now, days on our tropical island are deceptively normal. We went swimming at the beach yesterday, followed by a sunset dinner. Security was a bit tighter at the mall and they were opening car trunks on the way in to the parking lot.

Life is much the same, though we have some new rules to follow.

Coup do's and don't's:

People in rural areas must not come to Bangkok to march around and yell at soldiers. (Dang. There goes my weekend plan.)

Stockpiling and selling goods at inflated prices can be punished with up to 2 years in prison and a fine of 100,000 baht. (Hold it lady! Drop those mangoes!)

No political discussions in groups of more than five people, especially if the group includes government officials. (Whew! My website is safe.)