It is strange how some things affect you. I was up late on Boxing Day night here, when the news started to come in on the TV about the Tsunami. I can vividly recall seeing the pictures from India and along a railway track in Sri Lanka, (not the track where the train was bowled over) . We knew that up to 2,000 people had been killed. I remember also that I thought if it was this bad in these countries, what would it be like on the western coast of Sumatra, so much nearer the epicentre. As the story unfolded and the dreadful death toll mounted, we got almost inured to the pictures of the waves, the panic-stricken tourists and the bloated bodies. Of course, the whole family was deeply affected. We gave generously to the Tsunami appeal. We had concerns about a girl from Finland who we knew well, but later we found out she was safe, just. But strangely it was not until I saw the picture of John and Jackie Knill that appeared on the BBC News internet site that I saw something that has really haunted me. I don't entirely know why, perhaps because they were nearer my age, perhaps it was the fact that they had steadfastly stood where they were, taking pictures of the advancing Tsunami until they were overwhelmed. The picture shows them standing on the beach, under the palm trees, they look as though they really loved each other - they were so obviously happy in each other's company. They look such a nice couple, I think I would have liked to have known them. They look like the sort of parents that any son or daughter would be proud to call mum and dad.
A lot of other people perished in that dreadful event, but of all the scenes of sorrow that touches me, this couple touches me the most.
Sleeping soundly at night 1
Over some years, geologists have been warning countries around the Indian Ocean of the danger of tsunamis, and the need to consider installing a tsunami warning system, such as there is in the Pacific. But their warnings went unheeded, the cost was considered too high, the danger not immediate. This is not mentioned to apportion blame or seek a scapegoat. But what I will say is this, the experts got it right, the politicians got it wrong.
When we are dealing with natural disasters, that happen on a geological time scale and not a human one, it is hard for a mere mortal, seeing the world spinning round, and having, if he is lucky, the experience of seeing the world turn 25,000 times in his life time, to understand processes that work over vastly longer time scales, say 3,650,000 rotations of the globe. Because these processes happen imperceptably, we are not aware of them. There has been no major tsunami in the world since we have had film or TV, until this one. Now we have been brought up short. We now can appreciate the risk. In New Zealand, as a consequence, the government is examining the sort of tsunami warning system here. New Zealand is incredibly vulnerable to a tsunami. One could arise from any of the offshore faults or across the Pacific. There is a warning system of a sort, but I think it has been admitted that it won't actually save many lives. We would for instance need warning sirens in every sea-side settlement and town along every vulnerable coastline, and we don't have that yet. But we must do it. Is it being done, and how long will it take.? If I were a politician having some responsibility to deal with this, I don't think I could sleep soundly at night until I knew this was being dealt with. Cost is not the issue, just as cost should not have been the issue in the Indian Ocean.
Sleeping soundly at night 2
In Wellington, the Dominion newspaper has been publishing articles about tsunamis and sea level rise due to global warming. So there are some major perils in this area. For us, the earthquake threat is immediate and dire. We sit right on top of a very active fault. In fact there are at least four major faults in the immediate vicinity. A scale 8 earthquake along the Wellington fault would partially destroy the city. In the last two months alone Wellington has been shaken about four times by force 5 earthquakes. Having experienced them, I know what anxiety even a small quake can bring. It is not a nice feeling. But, we know there are at least 40 major buildings in the city that would still be considered an earthquake risk. If this information is true, then we must either strengthen these buildings or demolish them. What immediate action is being taken to correct this? Is this being done, and how long will it take? I should also mention that Wellington has a reticulated gas supply. Has this been considered in assessing earthquake risk? After all, all the wooden homes in Wellington must be a major fire risk, in the event of an earthquake, there could be a firestorm, such as happened in Kobe, where 500 people were burned to death, or in Tokyo or in San Francisco, where similarly great fires took hold. Shouldn't we be considering getting rid of reticulated gas in Wellington? I use gas, I have a gas fire and a gas cooker, but if it is unsafe, I would rather get rid of it. But there's not much point in doing this on my own if all my neighbours continue to use gas. If I were a Wellington councillor, I don't think I would be able to sleep soundly until I knew the answer to these questions. There is no way I would wish anything to happen on my watch, which would have found us ill-prepared. Cost is not the issue. Sleeping soundly at night 3
Straying from earthquakes, Wellington has an airport. It is in an awkward and confined postition and with the weather here quite often being very inclement, pilots sometimes have problems landing. Now Wellington airport's runway is rather short. We have been told that if the runway is not lengthened by a certain amount, we stand to loose flights to Australia, because the runway would be considered unsafe. The council has indicated that the runway will be lengthened. But this was about two years ago, the runway looks much the same length to me (I can see it from my kitchen window). Why hasn't this been done? If I were a councillor, I don't think I could sleep at night knowing that this hasn't been done. If there were to be a crash, I would despair. In addition it might mean that the council was sued, if so, it could be for very many millions of dollars. I don't know what it will cost to lengthen the runway, but whatever the cost it has to be done and straightaway. If people can afford to go on conferences to Europe, or visit relatives in America, or tramp in Patagonia, or do their O.E. in London, or take a package holiday to Fiji, or commute to Auckland or do business in Beijing, then we can certainly afford to make this runway safer. Cost is not the issue. Update 14/4/06 - work has now started on the southern end of the runway. That's good, but the northern end though has not been started yet. Sleeping soundly at night 4
Experts are warning us about global warming. They are warning us about increase likelihood of destructive weather, or rising sea levels and coastal damage. They are warning us about drought in some areas, and erosion in others. They are warning about major effects for many of the world's most vulnerable populations. I have been finding sleep difficult recently because we are not taking notice of the experts and we are not taking the measures we need to deal with this. Similarly with oil depletion. The experts have been telling us for some years, oil depletion is coming. Lack of oil, not planned for, could destroy all our economies. Cost is not the issue. Lemmings (well, I had to mention them somewhere!)
I think if there had been a warning system for the Indian Ocean tsunami, many tens of thousands of people, including John and Jackie Knill, would still be alive. Global warming, oil depletion, pollution, desertification and all the other pestilences we are bringing to our planet, are man-made processes of a geological nature, but vastly accelerated by the power we have over our earthly dominion. Even in the lifetime of people living on this planet, especially those in the northern latitudes, they know the climate is changing. They can see it. It as plain as if they were running a time lapse film over their memories. We are rapidly running out of time and our leaders in government and industry and commerce are taking humanity to a precipice. Like the lemmings, if we all follow our leaders, they will lead us over the brink, just as happily as their predecessors led the soldiers over the trenches in the Somme. Every single one of us is reponsible for our own actions. Every one must read and learn about global warming and oil depletion. They must listen to those people who can give them reliable and and understandable information. If we take note now, and I mean now, of our scientists who have been warning us over and over again for years and years about the inevitable consequences of our unsustainable pillaging of the Earth's resources, then many millions of people will not die who otherwise will. And the cost of saving the world? It is not the issue. 
But Why Bother?
But on the other hand why bother? Just today, as part of a Dominion Post investigation into global warming, Owen McShane, environment correspondent for the National Business Review here in New Zealand was quoted as saying "I don't think we should care a stuff about future generations. They can take care of themselves. It's immoral to care for someone who hasn't been born yet." I sent a rude reply back to the paper, my breath was taken away by the sheer callousness and immorality of this viewpoint. But as I write this, I reflect that perhaps he isn't that different from most of humanity, perhaps he was just being more honest - for instance every year over four times as many people are killed in road traffic accidents in the world as were killed in the Boxing Day tsunami. This is the more realistic picture of public concern in regard to preventable deaths. If we don't care a stuff for humanity now, as billions languish, and die, in the most profound and demeaning poverty, then perhaps we are all hypocrites for pretending to care about future generations. Tens of millions dying in India or Africa from intolerable heat and drought will be no worse than the millions dying from AIDS or malaria. After all, life for us goes on....... doesn't it?
