New Zealand Musings

Some further correspondence.

Some radio programmes in the last day precipitated further e-mails, they deal with matters previously examined, but as long as our leaders and their advisers continue to act in so cavalierly in the face of the reality of our situation, then I am fated to continue writing about it.

The first relates to a conversation this morning on Kathryn Ryan’s Nine-to-Noon programme on National Radio. Kathryn interviewed a researcher, Sharon Buckland, who had actually gone to the trouble of interviewing a thousand people in New Zealand, age group 45 to 65 I think, about their attitudes to retirement and their plans for older age. What she has done is apparently a first, despite all the worries and concerns so often expressed about our ageing population, no-one has actually bothered to find out as best they can what these “Baby Boomers” think about their future.

And much as I previously indicated, in this blog and elsewhere, it confirms that this generation (of whom I am a leading member, in age if not in intellect) does indeed look forward to a very different life-style in our older age than in generations previously, and that retirement at 65 or any other particular age, will not be part of the majority of our agendas. Indeed a third of the interviewees indicated they might embark on a new career or business in their “retirement”, which word then of course lose its meaning. In fact, history will show this is a revolutionary change and that retirement will become an outmoded concept, much as “spinster” has become a mere historical term.

You can hear the interview here. I have downloaded from the National Radio site, so that it remains available.

My letter reads:

Kathryn and team, 

First, please congratulate Sharon Buckland on her research. The presumptions about our future as sketched out by economists and forecasters have been wrong for a long time, and their concerns about the ageing population have always been grossly overstated. 

The reason this matter is so important is not just related to this generation of baby-boomers but for the whole future of humanity. There is a desperate need to get out of this pathological attachment to "growth" and the need to encourage youthful immigration or high birth rates to avoid the "problems" of an ageing population when these problems won't actually exist. Ultimately all societies will age, indeed is vital that we do so, because unless you propose the preposterous notion that our population will increase for ever, all mature, sustainable and population-static societies will have more elderly people, and the sooner we achieve this the better for us and the planet. This is a particular problem for New Zealand with its high population growth, for an OECD country. 

What we do need though is a much more flexible approach to work and retirement. Our taxation system, employment laws and education system need to change to reflect the reality of an active older population who will continue to make a huge contribution the wealth and well-being of our societies. But as your other contributor, Ian, intimated, there is a particular problem for New Zealand, in the increasing numbers of Maori and Polynesians who's health problems and poor educational attainment might prove a major impediment to this rosier picture. This is another reason why I despair of our present economic priorities, which are blinkered and hostile to these new ideas. 

Yours faithfully, 

Next a letter precipitated by hearing Bill English, our Minister of Finance, refusing to act on the news that our New Zealand dollar has soared over to over US$0.70 again, and is now overvalued by about 20% or more, making life difficult for exporters, lowering import and oil costs and thereby encouraging more excessive and unaffordable consumption.

I have written about this matter before, New Zealand’s currency has been one of the most volatile in the OECD – there are two fundamental causes for this, first, large scale immigration – two huge waves of immigration in the mid-nineties and again in the early years of this century have stressed the domestic economy and encouraged high house prices, thereby precipitating interest rate rises; secondly the country’s continued submission to monetarist economic dogma, making it impossible for the government to take direct or proactive action to deal with the matter. Not that this is literally impossible; it’s merely that belief in this dogma makes all alternatives unthinkable. This was my letter.

Dear Team, 

-

Now we hear from our finance Minister Bill English the same sort of nonsense as we heard from Nathan in the US. I'm sorry - this pathetic excuse that there's nothing that can be done to deal with our overvalued dollar is wearing crying-out-loud thin. Here are some suggestions for Bill English.

Substantially reduce or have a moratorium on immigration. Encourage smaller families. Build more government houses. Improve urban planning. Require higher house deposits when purchasing. Require banks to make interest free deposits in Government coffers related to the amount of their lending. Get on with reducing the perverse incentives for housing investment in NZ. Buy overseas currencies. Encourage savings further. Stop pretending that simplistic monetarist policies and the so-called 'independence' of the Reserve Bank are adequate to deal with this matter when manifestly they haven't for many years. Actually, live in the real world and use your brains and stop relying on the 'market' to do your thinking for you. Use the sovereign powers you possess instead of emasculating them on the altar of neo-liberal dogma.

But we won't, our exporters will continued to be sacrificed on this same altar and Bill English's excuses will continue to be as lame and craven as ever. 

Yours faithfully, 

And the last is to the team at morning report, following the report of their Wall St correspondent’s report on Barack Obama’s speech to bankers, berating them for their continued extravagance and intransigence in the face of everyone else’s economic difficulties.

Dear Team,

It's quite bizarre hearing your Wall St correspondent's breathless explanation of what is going on in US financial circles and the US administrations efforts to deal with Wall St. What Nathan failed to mention to your listeners, was that the US is bankrupt, it is printing dollars in the trillions and we are living in a delusional universe of wish-fulfillment. The fact that president Obama, for all his talk of change, obviously shares these delusions makes it now certain that our economic collapse will ultimately proceed unimpeded. What we have had so far are the mere first skirmishes in our battle with reality. So far we have kept reality at bay, but the problem is the nature of reality - it always wins eventually. 

Yours faithfully,