I've had a long time off from posting to this site, sixteen months, about. After my last entry, in April last year, I took off, with my wife, to Europe, and after a brief couple of days in London, to catch up with my daughter there, I flew to France, on my own, and the start of the St James Pilgrimage in St-Jean-pied-de-porte, on the French side of the northern Pyrenees. My photograph above was taken about half-way along the 650 km walk. The whole pilgrimage was a wonderful experience, taking about five weeks. Sometime I will write a bit more about this, though I was much upset by the fact that I lost a whole lot of photos of the last third of my pilgrimage. It still rankles. But the memories are vivid and real. It was one of the happiest experiences of my life, and if anyone I met or knew on this pilgrimage ever reads this, I would like to thank them now for their company and their contribution to this almost overwhelming experience.
Where to from here? I should be writing rather smugly, because so much of what I have been writing about in the last few years has come to pass - peak oil and massively increased oil prices, even higher than my prognostications, the global recession, the continued problems in Iraq, monetary collapse - but there's no taking any pleasure from "I told you so", just a feeling of waste and futility.
I have been writing letters, as I do, to the Dominion Post and others. But nothing changes. This morning on Nine-to-Noon, Kathryn Ryan has interviewed the National Party deputy leader, Bill English, about money for new "roading" as they call it here in New Zealand, and the possibility of road tolls. The National Party, despite an imminent election, still don't seem to have their act together, as Bill had to contradict the National Party's own transport spokesman, Maurice Williamson, who had only yesterday suggested drivers would have to pay upto $50 per week for certain toll roads; Bill was backtracking jolly quickly, "it wouldn't be anything like this much" he said, several times, saying Maurice was being "exuberant". I am not sure what he means by exuberant here, because I would contend that spending billions of dollars on asphalted white elephants is itself somewhat "exuberant"
So I fired off a letter, what else?
Dear Kathryn and Team,
I find it a bit difficult to take National, or Labour for that matter, very seriously in regard to transport policy. Neither party has shown any understanding of the massive and revolutionary problem of oil depletion, because if they had, these proposals for billions of dollars in new road schemes would be seen for what they are, absurd, profligate and anachronistic mis-investments. In our oil depleted planet, New Zealand's attachment to the motor vehicle is nothing short of pathological, New Zealand needs more roads as much as my patient with atherosclerosis needs more cholesterol.
Yours faithfully,
I find it a bit difficult to take National, or Labour for that matter, very seriously in regard to transport policy. Neither party has shown any understanding of the massive and revolutionary problem of oil depletion, because if they had, these proposals for billions of dollars in new road schemes would be seen for what they are, absurd, profligate and anachronistic mis-investments. In our oil depleted planet, New Zealand's attachment to the motor vehicle is nothing short of pathological, New Zealand needs more roads as much as my patient with atherosclerosis needs more cholesterol.
Yours faithfully,
But I am depressed, how else could I be. This is exactly the same sort of letter as I have been firing off for years. My predictions in regard to oil depletion, food prices, huge oil import costs etc. etc. have been good, I feel I am on secure ground, that to be building roads at this sort of cost is irredeemably stupid, yet here is New Zealand absolutely determined, against every single piece of evidence to the contrary, to pursue this profligate, pointless exercise. We have a rail system needing billions of dollars to upgrade, a huge expanding city in Auckland just about scerlotic with traffic, and liable to seize up completely, with an urgent need for massive investment in public transport, particularly light rail.
Another letter comes from a front page, headline report from the Dominion Post which I'll copy here, as Dominion Post articles are not archived and are not available for very long.
Drivers to pay for oil shock
By EMILY WATT - The Dominion Post | Friday, 22 August 2008
Motorists should pay more to drive cars - including more expensive car parks, and fees to use the roads - if New Zealand is to survive rising oil prices, a comprehensive new report says.
The increased costs would be coupled with investment in public transport, tax breaks for fuel-efficient vehicles, laws requiring new developments to provide showers and lockers for walkers and bikers, improved urban design, and encouraging businesses to swap company cars for cash or bus subsidies.
The independent report, Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices Rise, was commissioned by the Government's New Zealand Transport Agency as a response to rising petrol prices.
Petrol peaked at $2.19 a litre in July for 91 octane and has since fallen, but the report, by transport consultants from McCormick Rankin Cagney and academics, says high oil prices are a serious and urgent risk and predicts petrol will rise to $2.80 by 2014. New Zealanders would be particularly stung by rising prices because of their over-reliance on cars. Currently 80 per cent of the population travel by private car and only 4 per cent by bus. Fourteen per cent is commercial.
The report calls for a fundamental shift in the Government's transport solutions - away from building more roads toward investing in alternative transport and maintaining existing roads. It says most of the recommendations are low-cost and can be afforded within current land-transport budgets. Charging motorists the true cost of parking and using roads will raise funds to invest in alternative transport.
Drivers will be further discouraged by reallocating road space and slowing traffic to make roadways more pedestrian-friendly. Rather than widening roads, it says one existing lane should be for buses or car-pooling, leaving less room for private cars and making efficient options even more attractive.
The authors acknowledge that the recommendations may be unpopular with the public but say they will reduce dependence on oil so the average consumer will spend almost the same on oil-based transport in 20 years as they do now, despite escalating fuel prices. They also calculate the recommendations will save $15 billion over 20 years in fuel and vehicle expenses as well as the welfare benefits of reduced congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gases.
This report will be published on the NZTA website and distributed to policymakers and local authorities to be considered in their planning.
Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons welcomed the report and hoped it would "inject a bit of reality" into transport planning. She said the Government had previously ignored rising oil prices in its cost-benefit analysis of building more roads. This report acknowledged "for the first time" the reality of long-term oil-price rises.
By EMILY WATT - The Dominion Post | Friday, 22 August 2008
Motorists should pay more to drive cars - including more expensive car parks, and fees to use the roads - if New Zealand is to survive rising oil prices, a comprehensive new report says.
The increased costs would be coupled with investment in public transport, tax breaks for fuel-efficient vehicles, laws requiring new developments to provide showers and lockers for walkers and bikers, improved urban design, and encouraging businesses to swap company cars for cash or bus subsidies.
The independent report, Managing Transport Challenges When Oil Prices Rise, was commissioned by the Government's New Zealand Transport Agency as a response to rising petrol prices.
Petrol peaked at $2.19 a litre in July for 91 octane and has since fallen, but the report, by transport consultants from McCormick Rankin Cagney and academics, says high oil prices are a serious and urgent risk and predicts petrol will rise to $2.80 by 2014. New Zealanders would be particularly stung by rising prices because of their over-reliance on cars. Currently 80 per cent of the population travel by private car and only 4 per cent by bus. Fourteen per cent is commercial.
The report calls for a fundamental shift in the Government's transport solutions - away from building more roads toward investing in alternative transport and maintaining existing roads. It says most of the recommendations are low-cost and can be afforded within current land-transport budgets. Charging motorists the true cost of parking and using roads will raise funds to invest in alternative transport.
Drivers will be further discouraged by reallocating road space and slowing traffic to make roadways more pedestrian-friendly. Rather than widening roads, it says one existing lane should be for buses or car-pooling, leaving less room for private cars and making efficient options even more attractive.
The authors acknowledge that the recommendations may be unpopular with the public but say they will reduce dependence on oil so the average consumer will spend almost the same on oil-based transport in 20 years as they do now, despite escalating fuel prices. They also calculate the recommendations will save $15 billion over 20 years in fuel and vehicle expenses as well as the welfare benefits of reduced congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gases.
This report will be published on the NZTA website and distributed to policymakers and local authorities to be considered in their planning.
Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons welcomed the report and hoped it would "inject a bit of reality" into transport planning. She said the Government had previously ignored rising oil prices in its cost-benefit analysis of building more roads. This report acknowledged "for the first time" the reality of long-term oil-price rises.
My letter was written late on Friday evening after a 3 pint session with an Australian called Greg, who looked like a slighly reduced version of Robbie Coltrane, and spoke with an amazingly deep rough voice, at a local pub in Cuba St. (It has become my habit since I have been working regularly in the City and biking to and from work, to call in to a local hostelry on the Friday evening to celebrate another week's hard work.) The pub was the "Hotel Bristol", and it's a pleasant and popular bar, with good value food. So my letter was written under the useful influence of some Irish hops and barley. You'll have to judge the effects yourself.
The Editor
The Dominion Post
Wellington
Dear Sir / Madam
When Montezuma's armies first saw the Spanish conquistadors on their horses, they thought they were seeing a monster - half man, half beast - and they fled in terror. I experience something of the same awful sensation observing the New Zealander and his motor-car, welded at the hip, as a minister of transport once observed. But now, a report from the New Zealand Transport Agency,"Transport Challenges when Oil Prices Rise", proves that a monster slayer has at last arisen (Dominion Post 22/8/08). It recommends outlandish ideas such as reduced parking spaces, taxes on fuel inefficient vehicles, cycle friendly cities and a whole panoply of recommendations as only previously seen in Green Party manifestos. Jeanette Fitzsimons hopes this report will "inject a bit of reality" into transport planning, but I doubt a simple injection will do anything. The authors acknowledge these suggestions "might be unpopular with the public", but I have this horrible feeling, just as the man/horse monster destroyed the Aztec empire, that the New Zealand man/car monster will destroy us all before yielding to such immoderate intelligence as in this report, and that reality lies as distant as ever, in this car-driven dystopia.
Yours faithfully,
The Dominion Post
Wellington
Dear Sir / Madam
When Montezuma's armies first saw the Spanish conquistadors on their horses, they thought they were seeing a monster - half man, half beast - and they fled in terror. I experience something of the same awful sensation observing the New Zealander and his motor-car, welded at the hip, as a minister of transport once observed. But now, a report from the New Zealand Transport Agency,"Transport Challenges when Oil Prices Rise", proves that a monster slayer has at last arisen (Dominion Post 22/8/08). It recommends outlandish ideas such as reduced parking spaces, taxes on fuel inefficient vehicles, cycle friendly cities and a whole panoply of recommendations as only previously seen in Green Party manifestos. Jeanette Fitzsimons hopes this report will "inject a bit of reality" into transport planning, but I doubt a simple injection will do anything. The authors acknowledge these suggestions "might be unpopular with the public", but I have this horrible feeling, just as the man/horse monster destroyed the Aztec empire, that the New Zealand man/car monster will destroy us all before yielding to such immoderate intelligence as in this report, and that reality lies as distant as ever, in this car-driven dystopia.
Yours faithfully,
Interesting though, just a few days after the Government's own transport agency produces this report, a useful reminder that intelligent life does exist in New Zealand, that the two parties should be waging a war of words as to how each is going to fund and build billions of dollars worth of new roads, or "roading" as we call it here. I have several times alluded to the political brain, this wonderful evolutionary trait that allows politicians to hold two completely different, logically contrary or mutually exclusive, or even ethically opposing views at one and the same time, and not only that, not to seem to have any trouble thus holding them, or explaining them away.
It's just so bloody depressing. No wonder I haven't been bothered to write further to this blog.
The Political Brain