last full day in moscow


ivan tried but couldn't meet with the union of soldiers' mothers. our one interview turned out to be at the carnegie center moscow. it was a rainy, relaxing day overall.

Our last full day in Russia dawned cool and rainy; early too. Morning passed uneventfully, and we moved from play to breakfast to play to naps and on to lunch.

Monica and Mom made a final trip up to Yeliseev's for groceries while I stayed and watched the kids (they slept). I tried to reach my interview contact at the Committee of the Union of Soldiers' Mothers at her conference, but her phone never picked up (I assume she was in meetings when I called). So I will have to interview her when we return (January 2006?), or via email once we return home. Afterward, we all had lunch and at 4:30 p.m. we walked up a rainy Tverskaya to the Carnegie Center for our final interview of the trip.

Here we were made to wait while our host completed an interview with NBC news before meeting with us to chat about Chechnya and Russia.

His main point was that the current war in Chechnya can go on indefinitely if nothing changes in the Kremlin. What could change? Our host argued it would take more than just a change in government (say, a new president and administration). Rather, it would take an entirely changed political environment. Right now, most of the principle players on both sides of the war have vested interests in its continuation, while at the same time both sides feel they can sustain the current rate of death and destruction. In Russia's case, it is increasingly the case that the children of poor people and young men with criminal records or incomplete high school educations are serving in Russia's military (especially in Chechnya).

He mentioned that a Stalinist "scorched earth" strategy would wipe out the nationalist insurgency in Chechnya, but added that in the long run it would merely replace that costly conflict with an even more dangerous one: radical Islamic terrorism across Central Asia and beyond.

Our host added that in the old Russian tradition, "if there is a choice between evils, Russians choose both." After the first war and the chaos that rapidly consumed Chechnya following the cease fire in 1996, Russia had two broad strategic options. It could attempt to cordon off Chechnya and initiate careful pinprick military strikes against terrorist or organized criminal network nodes, or it could provide broad but delicate support of Maskhadov's fledgling government. In the event it did neither, and ended up with a full fledged military assault in 1999 that accomplished little more than kill off moderates, level Chechnya's social and physical infrastructure, and hyper-radicalize its enemies.

My question was about the Russian military's perception of its central mission. Has this changed due to the war in Chechnya and, if so, has the change altered the relative power of Russia's big three security bureaucracies (MOD, MVD, and FSB)? Our host answered that in the absence of any political leadership as to threats and missions, the Russian military's main foe is NATO. I could scarcely believe my ears, though I shouldn't have been surprised. The Russians don't see NATO as an enemy, but they use NATO as an organizational foil to design doctrine, strategy, and to procure weapons in preparation for major conventional war.

Our host emphasized that the real problem with this is that so long as the Russian military keeps on this way, there will be no possibility of either reform or innovation. I might have added that this sort of military is also fantastically ineffective at fighting counterinsurgency missions (including terrorism); which is the major threat to Russia's security now.

All in all it was a good interview. We left after an hour and stopped by Moskva bookstore to buy a few children's books in Russian (if Oleksandra, with whom we've contracted to replace Feena as Sam and Ingrid's nanny, actually comes to work for us, it will be great for her to have books to read to Sam and Ingrid in Russian).

Then we came home to a final celebration dinner of roasted stuffed pork, Lays potato chips, tomato and basil salad, Gins and Tonics (canned, but strangely satisfying according to Mom and Monica), Sibirskaya Korona beer, and dark-chocolate-and-hazlenut chocolate bars for desert. The kids ate well and while Monica did the dishes I got them showered and into their pajamas. After a few minutes of the Spongebob Squarepants Movie, we made them their chocolate milks and put them to bed.

Mom's in bed too; and Monica and I are watching Fashion TV (no dialog, just endless runway models walking in new fashion designs to hip music) while folding laundry, writing the blog, and taking care of final emails (got a wonderful email from Lesley, my sister, with photos of her and an amazing orchid she adopted).

Now it's off to bed. Good night all.

Posted: Tue - June 21, 2005 at 09:55 PM          

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