rec.arts.tv Commentary:

Fall '99 Season: My Predictions & Picks

Article posted to r.a.tv   :  September 19, 1999.
Article posted to this site:  October 24, 1999.



     Now that the Fall Shows are premiering yet again, I thought 
I'd do my usual previews of the shows we'll be seeing this fall. So I 
will picking my choices as audience WINNERS, and (in the shameless 
promotion category) what are MY PICKS (i.e. the shows that *I* will 
watch). If one of 'my picks' in "[...]", it means I'm not strongly 
committed to it; very competitive timeslots get a "TOSSUP" from me. 



BOTTOM LINE: I expect FOX to have a bad year, WBN to have its first 
not-so-great year, and CBS to dominate NBC and ABC (in that order). 
Big question? - Viacom and CBS will merge: is this UPN's last season?... 



Let's look at this night by night:

SUNDAYS:

Harder to say this season what will happen on Sundays, as "Touched by an Angel" is beginning to age, and neither ABC nor NBC (nor FOX nor The WB, for that matter!) are exactly rolling over this time.

At 8:00 pm, we have CBS's religious drama "Touched by an Angel" vs. NBC's new adrenaline-rush drama "Third Watch" vs. the second half of ABC's "Wonderful World of Disney" movie vs. FOX's retooled cartoon lineup of "The Simpsons" & "Futurama" vs. The WB's soulful (and overwrought) "Felicity"(?!!). (And, lest we forget, USA cable network comes with the appealingly off-beat supernatural whodunit "GvsE".)

At 9:00 pm it's CBS's (long-dominant) TV movie vs. NBC's TV movie vs. ABC's new (and different) David E. Kelly experiment "Snoops" vs. FOX's "The X-Files" (likely in its last season) vs. the new young-romantic drama (with probably the most 'impossibly beautiful' cast on TV right now) "Jack & Jill". (USA goes with the dumbed-down cop actioner "Pacific Blue".)

Continuing on from last season, the 10:00 pm race pits the second half of CBS's and NBC's TV movies against ABC's superior drama "The Practice" (and, in January, against USA's wildly underrated "La Femme Nikita").

Beyond that, with the syndication market narrowing further, more and more syndicated dramas will also end up on Sunday nights on independent TV stations in many markets.

WINNERS:

WINNERS : CBS's "60 Minutes" will continue to muddle to a win, much to my dismay, though ABC's "Wonderful World of Disney" will also continue to do fine. FOX will continue with "World's Funniest..." until football ends and the anticipated "Malcolm in the Middle" finally premieres; following either show is "King of the Hill", restored to Sundays, but with the damage already done, it's hard to see KotH flourishing here. WBN will continue to run simple and safe with reruns of "7th Heaven" which won't win any ratings prizes, but will do the trick. Meanwhile, NBC has already punted in this time period with the billionth edition of "Dateline", which usually does fair to middling. I do expect USA network's wrestling to continue to do fairly well here.

CBS's "Touched by an Angel" will likely beat the competition, though FOX may rebound with their newly rationalized lineup of (Matt Groening) animated sitcoms (e.g. "The Simpsons" and "Futurama". The big question is whether NBC will improve its position with the new "Third Watch": my heart hopes so, but my head says it's quite a long shot. On The WB, meanwhile, I expect "Felicity" (and it's follow-up, "Jack & Jill") to bomb (they're a bad fit with Sundays): expect "Felicity" to be moved to Thursdays before "Charmed" by mid-season.

"The X-Files" will be continue to decline in the ratings this season (until the series finale pumps the ratings back up by next Spring), but it'll still do well by FOX standards. CBS will once again handily win the TV movie race, as it did last season. Meanwhile, ABC's "Snoops" has been battered by critics, and up against the TV movies and "The X-Files, I expect "Snoops" will tank. The question then becomes: does ABC believe in the show enough to move it to another night, or do they risk alienating David E. Kelly and cancel the show outright? Meanwhile, "Jack & Jill" is a bad fit here, and will be one The WB's first high-profile casualties (likely, along with Thursday's "Popular"). Stay tuned...

Another big question is whether the big Emmy win for ABC's "The Practice" pumps up the ratings at 10 pm (it's a possibility that can't be ruled out). While "The Practice" can't be expected to regularly beat CBS's nearly unstoppable TV movies, it should do well enough that ABC will continue to be pleased. Of equal interest to me is how the cult hit "La Femme Nikita" will do on the USA network, as the prospect of season #5 likely depends on how this season #4 does in the ratings. Based on the results for the show, so far however, I'm optimistic.

My PICKS:

MONDAYS:

The (real) action here is between newly restored CBS's comedy lineup, led by the surging "King of Queens" and "Everybody Loves Raymond", versus FOX's overrated and overwrought (but very popular) "Ally McBeal". It's already a foregone conclusion that ABC's "Monday Night Football" will do well (though it has been slipping over the last 5 years).

The evening begins with NBC's inexplicably renewed (and promptly overhauled) "Suddenly Susan" and NBC's inexplicably renewed (and promptly overhauled) "Veronica's Closet" vs. CBS's "King of Queens" and the new (weak?) sitcom "Family Guy" vs. FOX's new Love Hewitt vehicle (yeah, because we don't all see enough of Love Hewitt already?!!!) "Time of Your Life". Meanwhile, WBN goes with long standby "7th Heaven" and UPN goes with newly rejuvenated line up of ethnic sitcoms lead by "Moesha" and the new "The Parkers". Look to CBS (and ABC's football) to do best here.

At 9:00 pm the question is this: has "Ally McBeal" finally worn out its welcome? (Some anecdotal evidence points to a "Yes".) By going more explicitly in the direction of surreal comedy in its second season, "Ally" has already alienated some first season fans. As a result, it may fade this season. But, I am too much of a pessimist to think that this will actually happen. Still, after football, "Raymond" (followed by Ted Danson's "Becker") wins the timeslot (perhaps handily this season) edging "Ally". NBC's goes in an all new direction with challenging, edgy drama from lovable Hollywood Leftie Dick Wolf in the form of "Law & Order: Special Victim's Unit". WBN, having failed with every "7th Heaven" follow-up show since "Buffy", goes with a new "7th Heaven" clone "Safe Harbor" lead by Gregory Harrison and Rue McClanahan. I expect this WBN show to be a success.

At 10:00 pm, I'm thinking that CBS will bomb with "Family Law" (looks pretty bad to me, despite four appealing lead stars). And NBC will continue to do score with the leaden "Dateline". Meanwhile, ABC will have some thinking to do about what exactly should go in here ("Once and Again" perhaps?) before football season ends.

WINNERS:

I expect ratings for football to continue to decline on ABC (does anybody still care about the NFL?!). However, ABC has a chance to shine in January (after football ends) with a lineup that will likely include "Once & Again" and perhaps "Snoops" or "Wasteland" (or, more horribly, another "20/20").

As I said above, the real battle here is between CBS's comedies and FOX's dramas. Expect CBS to dominate this time: I actually expect Hewitt's "Time of Your Life" to tank (too much Love Hewitt is not a good thing, even for her fans!), while "Ally" has likely peaked already. WBN will do well with "7th Heaven" and the new rationalized follow-up, "Safe Harbor". Question: can NBC's "Law & Order" spin-off make any mark here? My guess: No.

At 10:00 pm, "Family Law" will tank, leaving the field to the horrible "Dateline", at least until football ends.

My PICKS:

TUESDAYS:

To say that this night is "very competitive" is the understatement of the season! Check this out:

At 8:00 pm, the competition can only be described as "mutually assured destruction": The likely overall winner looks to be CBS's military drama "JAG", which looks to continue strong with no let up in sight (bonus points to "JAG" if they can get Tracey Needham to show up as a guest star this season...). Meanwhile, NBC and ABC seek to annihilate each other by putting their best sitcoms against one another: ABC goes with "Spin City" and the spurious "It's like, you know..." while NBC takes the fight to the night with the superior "Just Shoot Me" and "3rd Rock". But, wait! there's more! FOX goes with a recanned, half-hour version of "Ally" and the superior teen sitcom "That 70's Show". UPN goes with the brilliantly deranged animated "Dilbert" followed by the could-this-be-a-breakout? "Shasta McNasty". Finally, The WB's juggernaut "Buffy The Vampire Slayer" finishes out the field. In short, Tuesdays 8-9 pm suck if you are any sort of TV fan: the choices are endless, and far too numerous not to leave many viewers wanting more (but not being able to fit it in!).

At 9:00 pm, the competition remains stiff. CBS continues with workhorse "60 Minutes II", which, while no ratings champ, is a solid performer. ABC and NBC continue the sitcom shoot-out with ABC's "Dharma & Greg" and "Sports Night"(maybe?) vs. NBC's surging "Will & Grace" and (the possibly atrocious) "Mike O'Malley Show". FOX goes risky by moving "Party of Five" here, which is an even more dubious move when you consider that the "Buffy"-spin-off "Angel" is likely to be a formidable challenger here. Finally, UPN pulled the switcheroo by holding back "Secret Agent Man" and instead going with the little-heard-of "The Strip" starring Sean Patrick Flannery.

At 10:00 pm, it's confusing: ABC begins the season with the new relationship drama, "Once & Again"; but it lasts only about 6 weeks, until "NYPD Blue" returns. Then we find the new and intriguing Amy Brenneman/Tyne Daly vehicle "Judging Amy" going up against ABC's popular (but fading?) "NYPD Blue" and NBC's entrenched never-ending "Dateline".

WINNERS:

I hate to admit it, but it looks like ABC will squeak out the win here with "Spin City", despite the fact that I think that "Just Shoot Me" is the superior (though probably less accessible) show. In the drama race, "JAG" continues to clean up as always, while "Buffy" looks to continue going strong. Much to my consternation, FOX's braindead ploy of recycled "Ally" will likely destroy FOX's only good sitcom "That 70's Show". The question is, will FOX make the effort to save "That 70's Show", or will they just use this as an excuse to unload the show. I fear the worst. The variable here? UPN's lineup! Darned if I can figure out how it'll do!

At 9:00 pm, the race will be much closer. The shine is off ABC's "Dharma & Greg". Further complicating matters? The writers of "Dharma" appear to be destroying the show's premise (and appeal) by fiddling with the characterization of Greg. In short: big mistake! Expect "Will & Grace" to win big here. The interesting thing is what happens at 9:30 pm?! Neither "Sports Night" nor "The Mike O'Malley Show" look to be survivors. So when both shows inevitably die, what happens then?! Meanwhile, look to "Angel" to surprise, and help end the run of the aging (and tired) "Party of Five". Again, the other question is: how does UPN's "The Strip" do here?

At 10:00 pm? Well, this gets very confusing. Were "NYPD Blue starting out the season as usual, I'd go counter- intuitive here and predict that "Judging Amy" would be a hit! It wouldn't dethrone "NYPD Blue", but it'd do well enough to impress CBS. However, at the start of the season, "Judging Amy" and "Once & Again" will be cannibalizing the same audience. So I have no idea what will happen, though I still think "Judging Amy is a good bet. NBC will muddle along with "Dateline".

My PICKS:

WEDNESDAYS:

This is the one night that looks to be pretty weak on every network.

At 8:00 pm, only two networks are airing sitcoms: CBS goes with "Cosby" and the new ("Almost Perfect" rip-off) "Work with Me"; ABC goes with the (very weak) "Two Guys and a Girl" and the incredibly underappreciated (and wickedly funny) "The Norm Show". Everybody else has dramas: FOX has the aging "90210", WBN has the tiresome "Dawson's Creek", NBC has the terminally annoying and vapid "Dateline", and UPN goes with the wildly inconsistent "7 Days" (probably the best choice of the lot!).

At 9:00 pm, ABC continues with its popular sitcom "The Drew Carey Show" and follows it up with the highly questionable "Oh Grow Up" (look for Rena Sofer to steal this one right out from under its male leads!). CBS goes with a TV Movie night (moving this from last season's Tuesday to this season's Wednesday). Again, the other nets go with dramas: NBC goes with the woefully ill-conceived "West Wing" (I predict it'll bomb, and William December Starr is holding me to that!), FOX goes with the out-of-tune "Get Real" (looking to be the season's first casualty), and UPN continues with the aging and wildly inconsistent "Star Trek: Voyager". The pick of the litter here is unquestionably WBN's "Roswell", one of only a couple of new shows with any 'buzz' at all (the other one being NBC's "Freaks & Geeks").

At 10 pm, NBC's dominant "Law & Order" (with its zillionth cast change) will continue to contend with ABC's "20/20" and the second half of CBS's TV Movie.

WINNERS:

Can there be any doubt? Nope. The execrable "Dateline" wins here, while "90210" continues to hemorrhage bored, long-time viewers. "Dawson", meanwhile, looks to alienate its audience by adding even more new extraneous characters. (Why add more people, when the ones they have (e.g. Jen) don't have enough to do as it is?!) ABC will do OK with its sitcoms, and UPN will do fairly well (by its standards) with the SFTV actioner "7 Days". CBS's sitcoms will bomb even worse than "The Nanny" (and co.) did last season.

Meanwhile, ABC's "Drew Carey" will kill here, though I can't imagine "Oh Grow Up" will last very long. CBS will do OK with the TV Movie. "Voyager" continues as is, while "Roswell" will repeat "Charmed's" surprising success of last season, and could be WBN's breakout hit of this season. "West Wing" and "Get Real" are toast (the latter may even be gone before October!).

At 10:00 pm, I expect NBC's "Law & Order" will win, CBS's TV Movie does acceptably well, as does ABC's "20/20".

My PICKS:

THURSDAYS:

Under the pressure, I think NBC's "Must See" lineup finally cracks this season. "Friends" will still be the winner, but everything that follows is on shaky ground indeed (even "ER"!). (And don't get me started on "Jesse"! Even I can only take so much to watch Christina Applegate.)

On the other nets? At 8 pm: ABC has already blinked and held the new sitcom "Then Came You" to mid-season, and instead goes with an hour of the reliable "Whose Line Is It Anyway?..." UPN has gotten ingenious with WWF Wrestling, and is already seeing dividends. FOX was to go with "Manchester Prep" but, fearing scads of controversy (I guess FOX ain't so balsy after all!), FOX is now holding back "Manchester Prep" (which may never get to the air now); instead, FOX is going with the exploitive "World's Wildest/Scariest..." instead. (So much for Doug Hertzog's promises...) CBS goes with the old reliable Dick Van Dyke vehicle "Diagnosis: Murder". Finally, The WB goes with perhaps its most rickety and questionable new drama, "Popular".

At 9 pm, we see NBC's shaky (and declining?) "Frasier" followed by what appears to be another in NBC's long line of substandard sitcoms (this time, it's "Stark Raving Mad"). They're up against the following: ABC goes with the Kevin Williamson drama "Wasteland" (which may actually beat WBN's "Jack & Jill" for the 'Most Beautiful Cast' Award!), CBS's long-running but newly recast (and newly rejuvenated?...) hospital drama "Chicago Hope" (virtually returning to the timeslot it premiered in!), WBN's popular sisterly fantasy series "Charmed", and 'edgy' fare on FOX in the form of the animated "Family Guy" and the ribald comedy "Action".

At 10 pm, it's "ER" versus the newsshows (CBS's "48 Hours" and ABC's "20/20").

WINNERS:

There are really only two questions here: 1) how much will NBC's lineup continue to decline in the ratings? and 2) how much of that decline will be due to cable (and wrestling on UPN), and how much will be due to the other 4 networks? (In #2 there, I'm betting more on the former than the latter.)

At 8 pm, "Friends" wins & "Jesse" wilts. "Whose Line..." and "World's [whatever]..." will continue to be solid performers. Wrestling will do gangbusters for UPN, and WBN's "Popular" crashes and burns. In fact, expect 'Felicity" to be moved into its timeslot, and expect "Popular" to be dropped like a hot potato(e) by mid-season.

The outlook at 9 pm is for "Frasier" to get the 'squeeze play'. Both CBS's "Chicago Hope" and WBN's "Charmed" will siphon away older and younger viewers, respectively. However, thanks to "Charmed", ABC's "Wasteland" is dead on Thursdays; ABC will have to move it, or kill it. I can't imagine FOX will make much headway here with "Family Guy" and "Action" either.

At 10 pm, "ER" will still win, but it's clearly fading.

My PICKS:

FRIDAYS:

Fridays look to be increasingly competitive this season.

At 8:00 pm, ABC retools TGIF to be led off by "The Hughleys", which is followed by the former-sitcom-now-soap-opera known as "Boy Meets World" (just kill this show already!). CBS tries out the combo of "Kids Say the Darndest Things" (led by ringmaster The Coz') and new sitcom "Love & Money" (an early CBS casualty, no doubt). NBC returns with its surprise hit, the Melina Kanakaredes vehicle "Providence". UPN moves its "Shockwave Cinema" from Thursdays to Fridays, while FOX premieres the new cop drama "Ryan Caulfield (Year One)" (aka. "The Badlands"). Finally, The WB goes sitcomy with the new animated "Mission Hill" and old standby "Jamie Foxx".

At 9:00 pm, ABC continues TGIF with "Sabrina" (is she still a "Teenage Witch"?!) and the new, leering sitcom "Odd Man Out". Other comedies can be found on The WB with "Steve Harvey" and "For Your Love". In the drama race, CBS tries a new, offbeat drama in the form of SFTV actioner "Now & Again", while FOX goes with the intriguing new Chris Carter SFTV drama "Harsh Realm". NBC rounds this out with "Dateline (XLIII)".

At 10 pm, a new battle takes shape between the usual winner, ABC's "20/20", CBS's still-going-strong "Nash Bridges", and NBC's new "Providence"-themed and Brit-TV-inspired romantic dramedy, "Cold Feet".

WINNERS:

ABC's "TGIF" lineup looks to continue its slide into irrelevance; only "Sabrina" keeps this lineup afloat. However, unlike most TV critics, I'm not ready to count out "Odd Man Out" as a kiddie contender. At least, not yet...

Of the rest? "Dateline" wins. Then the race is between FOX's "Harsh Realm" and CBS's "Now & Again": neither show appears to be widely accessible, so it's anyone's guess who wins. The WB will muddle along with its sitcoms, and UPN will scrape the bottom with its movie.

At 10 pm, "20/20" will win overall. Meanwhile, CBS's "Nash Bridges" will again prevail, this time beating NBC's "Cold Feet". At some point, NBC may grab a brain and flip "Dateline" and "Cold Feet"; but, until then, "Cold Feet" will struggle.

My PICKS:

SATURDAYS:

Most people are out on Saturdays, and those that are left tend to be families that watch CBS's lineup of "Early Edition", the continuing (and 'retooled') actioner, "Martial Law", and the venerable "Walker, Texas Ranger".

Still, NBC continues to do acceptably well with its "Thrillogy" lineup (e.g. "The Pretender" and "Profiler"), though the "Thrillogy" lineup continues to slip some from season to season. As a result, NBC has done two new things: 1) NBC has added a totally different genre show to its lineup ("Freaks & Geeks"), and 2) NBC has forced Ally Walker off "Profiler" in favor of the much younger Jamie Luner (a move not designed to please long-time viewers such as myself).

Meanwhile, FOX sticks with its "Cops"/"America's Most Wanted" lineup. And ABC has scrapped everything here, opting instead for a *three*(!) hour movie block.

WINNERS:

CBS will continue to dominate, and NBC will continue to do OK own with the "Thrillogy". FOX will hold its own. ABC's movie lineup can be expected to underperform.

My PICKS: 

Anyway, that's my take on it...

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