rec.arts.tv Commentary:

Fall '97 Season: My Predictions & Picks

Article posted to r.a.tv   :  September 29, 1997.
Article posted to this site:  October 5, 1997.



     Now that the Fall Shows are coming out for all to see (though I am a 
little later with this review than last year's), I thought I'd take a 
closer look at what we'll be seeing this upcoming fall, what I think will 
be likely to be the audience WINNERS, and (in the shameless promotion 
category) what are MY PICKS (i.e. the shows that I will watch). If one of 
'my picks' in "[...]", it means I'm not strongly committed to it; very 
competitive timeslots get a "TOSSUP" from me. 


Let's look at this night by night:

SUNDAYS:

Unlike last year, I'm not expecting Sunday to be a competitive night anymore, at least at 8:00 pm. (Once again. I'm sure the dreaded "60 Minutes" will continue to win at 7pm). At 8:00pm we have CBS's religious drama "Touched by an Angel" vs. NBC's shaky comedies "Men Behaving Badly"/"Jenny" vs. the second half of ABC's "Wonderful World of Disney" movie vs. FOX's hip cartoons "The Simpsons" & "King of the Hill" vs. comedies on WBN.

At 9:00 pm it's the Big Three's TV movies vs. FOX's "The X-Files" (vs. comedies on WBN).

Meanwhile, the USA cable network will still be plugging along with its lineup from 8-12 pm of "Pacific Blue", "Silk Stalkings", "La Femme Nikita" and (its soon to end) "The Big Easy". And it's actually a legitimate alternative to the programming on the broadcast networks! Cool!

WINNERS:

CBS's "60 Minutes" continues to win by default, and "Dateline NBC" won't provide any competition. I doubt ABC's "Wonderful World of Disney" will make much in the way of inroads. FOX's exploitive "World's Funniest..." will probably not do great. I doubt WBN will do any better here with "Nick Freno" than it did with "Brotherly Love" (though I sort of hope I'm wrong); indeed "Freno" has already started the season as the lowest rated broadcast network show.

CBS's "Touched by an Angel" will crush the competition (save maybe FOX) at 8 pm this year. NBC's inferior "Men Behaving Badly" and "Jenny" will tank. FOX will continue to do quite well with "The Simpsons" and "King of the Hill". And ABC will muddle along. WBN will regret its mistake of moving "Jamie Foxx" to Sundays, as this show has lost at least a third of the audience it had in season #1.

"The X-Files" will be continue to cut into the movies on The Big Three, though CBS's TV Movies should continue to hold their own. I am less certain about what will happen NBC's and ABC's TV movies, but I doubt it'll be good...

Meanwhile, putting the cult hit "La Femme Nikita" into its Sunday lineup may bolster USA's ratings, but probably not by enough to be noticed in traditional media circles.

My PICKS:

MONDAYS:

The big gambit this year is NBC's attempt to "counterprogram" football with a slate of "female-oriented" sticoms. The problem? CBS already effectively does this with programs such as "Everybody Loves Raymond" and "Cybill", while FOX's "Melrose Palce" grabs another significant chunk.

But will it work?! It actually seems to be! NBC's "Suddenly Susan" and "Caroline" are making inroads. The problem for NBC is the weakness of the other two shows ("Fired Up" and "The Naked Truth"), but NBC has time to work with, now. Still, I'm mad at NBC for abandoning my much-loved "teens-in-jeopardy" TV Movies of '96-'97 season. Why did they abandon an already successful ratings formula?! :(

Through all of this, ABC will continue to mop up the male demographics with "Monday Night Football", though early ratings for MNF must be hearily discouraging to already-nervous ABC/Disney Execs.

Meanwhile, WBN will continue to counterprogram all of this with the family/religious drama "7th Heaven" (which has been building strength for a full year, now) and flashy cult comedy/horrow show "Buffy, The Vampire Slayer". The question here is whether, like "Savannah", "Buffy" will prove to be a "flash in the pan" in season #2, or whether it has staying power. The ratings for the premiere were encouraging, but only time will tell. And UPN will continue to plug away with minority targetted sitcoms.

WINNERS:

ABC should continue to be the overall audience winner (just based on the ratings from its half a season of football), though America's love affair with MNF may actually be drawing to a close based on early (disappointing) ratings. Worse, ABC will (as it does every year) stumble (badly) after football ("Timecop" will be gone in about 6 weeks), and in the second half of the season will end up near the bottom of the heap on a weekly basis.

The real battle here is between CBS's and NBC's comedies. Expect this battle to go all season long...

Meanwhile, FOX must see a turnaround in "Melrose's" numbers early, or this season will be "Melrose's" last. This task is complicated by the fact that almost the entire cast is now made up of freshmen and sophomores. The other question is whether FOX's new post-Melrose David E. Kelley drama, "Ally McBeal", can do anything in the ratings (don't bet too much money on the proposition!).

WBN may continue to improve here on Mondays (in fact, the ratings must continue to improve for WBN here, or this lineup will be deemed a failure); expect "Buffy" to move out of here, and "Dawson's Creek" to move in, come January. UPN's Monday night lineup appears to be crashing early.

My PICKS:

TUESDAYS:

In my opinion, this has been the weakest night of the week for several seasons. However, things are starting to look up here. CBS has moved in "JAG", and two promising new dramas after that. UPN has moved in "Clueless" (formerly on ABC) at 8:00 pm giving those of us who despise "Mad About You" and "Soul Man" something to watch, while 8:30 heralds the highly anticipated return of NBC's "Newsradio" to Tuesdays. And later on (in January), WBN is programming the drama that I am most anticiapting this season: the coming of age drama "Dawson's Creek" from Kevin Williamson ("Scream"), though "Buffy" may be moved in here instead. Meanwhile, "Frasier" (and for those who care, "Home Improvement") return to 9:00 pm. At 10 pm, CBS sees if Danny Aiello's "Dellaventura" can do anything against the declining "NYPD Blue".

WINNERS:

You're guess is as good as mine! I have no idea what will happen at 8:00 pm. I've got to think that ABC will continue to win this night, though their lineup looks to be the shakiest in years. So NBC could have a shot with MAY/Newsradio/Frasier to steal a vicotry from ABC. Personally, I'm more interested in what kind of numbers UPN's "Clueless" can generate in this new timeslot.

At 9:00 pm, "Home Improvment" will continue to edge "Frasier", though just barely. That makes life tough on David Caruso over on CBS (though I think his show has promise). I expect the presence of WBN and UPN at 9 pm to be virtually nonexistent! In fact, UPN's comedies "Hitz" and "Head Over Heels" have done so poorly in the ratings already, that I expect they will be pulled in the next 1-4 weeks!

At 10:00 pm? Expect "NYPD Blue" to win in a walk (too bad...).

My PICKS:

WEDNESDAYS:

NBC continues to overprogram comedies here in a vain attempt to win audience share. What makes this problematic this season is that NBC has, in a fit of idiocy, moved one of its best sitcoms, "Third Rock from the Sun", to Wednesdays where it will surely get killed (remember "Newsradio's" fate last year?!...).

ABC and FOX formerly ruled on Wednesdays with shows such as "90210", "Party of Five", "Drew Carey" and controversy-magnet "Ellen". CBS made some promising inroads last season when they moved "The Nanny" here, though, in a fit of its own idiocy, CBS has moved "Murphy Brown" into the slot after "The Nanny" (talk about a clash between two shows!!). In short, expect an ABC/CBS/FOX shootout again this year, but I'm betting on FOX to rally!

Meanwhile, UPN continues its sci-fi schtick with "The Sentenel" and "Voyager", while WBN sticks with it successful lineup of sitcoms.

At 10pm, NBC's dominant (and now Emmy winning) "Law & Order" will have to contend with CBS's "Chicago Hope".

WINNERS:

ABC's "Spin City" looks to be the winner here at 8:00 pm (though not with me). And NBC can 'kiss the baby' with "Tony Danza", which is too bad as this may be Danza's best vehicle since "Taxi". "Dharma & Greg" looks to be a big winner here, while NBC's "Built to Last" will also get shelled.

That leaves CBS and FOX to shoot it out for second. If "The Nanny" were paired with a better show, CBS would be the favorite in this hour. But, because of CBS's missed opportunity, I'm expecting aging sudser "90210" to do better this season (based partly on more interesting storylines), which should please FOX. UPN's "The Sentinel" will continue to draw decent numbers, as will WBN's entire lineup of sitcoms.

At 9:00 pm, the shootout is between ABC's "Drew Carey" and NBC's "3rd Rock". I'm giving the edge to "Drew Carey", but I hope I'm wrong. FOX's "Party of Five" will continue with the slightly better numbers than it was drawing at the end of last season. CBS's newsmagazine will probably not do much. And this season is 'make or break' for UPN's "Voyager": one more season of declining ratings, and it will be history! Luckily, someone at Paramount woke up, and "Voyager" appears to finally be improving, though only time will tell.

At 10:00 pm, I expect NBC's "Law & Order" will win, but it'll be interesting to see if CBS's "Chicago Hope" will make any headway here.

My PICKS:

THURSDAYS:

Continuing with the "Come on, give it up!" night, it'll still be NBC, and then everyone else. However, NBC must watch it: if "Union Square" continues to be worse than "The Single Guy" (which, as the pilot episode showed, is easily possible), NBC could start losing even more audience share here.

FOX goes with a new lineup on Thursdays, and will probably suffer for it. ABC also goes with new dramas, and will do absolutely nothing here. CBS, which foolishely cancelled "Moloney", will do worse with "Promised Land" followed by the now moved "Diagnosis: Murder". And in December, UPN is starting up a new Sci-Fi movie night.

WINNERS:

Is there any doubt?! Nope. It'll be NBC in a walk, again, though, like last season, there may be continued audience erosion, especially between 8-9 pm. In fact, I'm expecting that "Union Square" will be cancelled by mid-season, maybe even before Novemeber; the question is: what will be moved into its timeslot?!

The race for second will between CBS and FOX.

My PICKS:

FRIDAYS:

It's a whole new ballgame on Fridays next fall, and I'm not liking what I see.

At 8:00 pm, it's ABC's "TGIF" lineup, lead by "Sabrina", vs. CBS's "TGIF" lineup, lead by "Family Matters". Meanwhile, NBC goes with a law enforcement drama ("Players"), while FOX continues Sci-Fi, but with a new show ("The Visitor").

At 9:00 pm, more ABC and CBS "TGIF" vs. NBC's "Dateline" vs. FOX's ultra-downer horror show "Millennium".

At 10pm, the battle between NBC's "Homicide", CBS's "Nash Bridges" and ABC's "20/20" continues.

WINNERS:

ABC's "TGIF" lineup will prevail based on the strength of "Sabrina, The Teenaged Witch" alone. Meanwhile, FOX's "The Visitor" will probably beat NBC's "Players".

At 9:00 pm, the same: ABC will beat CBS, at least early on in the season. But can ABC's "You Wish" and "Teen Angel" hold off "Gregory Hines" and "Step by Step" forever?! In this time period, NBC beats FOX.

At 10pm, "20/20" will win overall. Meanwhile, CBS's "Nash Bridges" will finally prevail over NBC's "Homicide". The steady degradation in the quality of H:LOTS will likely intensify this season (with new cast members sure to be unimpressive), reducing the once "Best Show on TV" drama to a virtually unwatchable mess to those of us who are long-time fans of the show.

My PICKS:

SATURDAYS:

As I've said before, most people are out on Saturdays, and those that are left tend to be families that watch CBS's "Dr. Quinn", "Early Edition" and "Walker, Texas Ranger".

But last season, NBC actually had some moderate success with its "Thrillogy" lineup, while ABC floundered. So NBC is back with a slightly reworked "Thrillogy". Meanwhile, ABC has copied NBC with 3 (non-Sci-Fi) dramas. FOX sticks with its relatively successful (if unimaginative) "Cops"/"America's Most Wanted" mix.

WINNERS:

CBS will continue to dominate, but NBC will continue to come in a strong and successful second with its "Thrillogy". FOX will do OK. But ABC will continue to be in trouble here, which is greatly unfortunate as ABC's dramas, especially the stylish "FBI: C-16", show great promise. Hopefully "C-16", and perhaps "The Practice" will be moved to better homes...

My PICKS: 

Anyway, that's my take on it...

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