This article was written, by me, on May 25, 1998 and posted to the rec.arts.tv newsgroup. That original article has been slightly edited by me before being placed on the web on May 25, 1998.
THE NETWORKS (in order): 1. Non-Network (*especially* Non-TV) Entertainment 2. Cable/Satellite (e.g. HBO, USA, etc.) 3. WBN 4. Syndication 5. NBC 6. FOX 7. CBS 8. UPN 9. ABC
This year, I've slightly modified this section to talk a little more about general trends in television and trends affecting TV, which is why my first choice is a little different.
This year, it's more clear than ever that the so-called "Era of Television" is as much as over. Hemorrhaging viewers for a decade, the main broadcast (especially "The Big Three") networks went into full bleed out this year, which is why this year's biggest trend in TV is the general overall loss of TV viewers (which seems to have accelerated this season, as evidenced by the fact that advertising rates for the nets actually declined for next Fall, for the first time). ABC's and UPN's ratings totally collapsed, NBC started losing a number of its viewers (a trend that I predict will intensify next season), and CBS and FOX could do little more than hold steady without any growth (or much loss). Only WBN managed to pull in new viewers, but even this wasn't much of a victory (see below). And I can't help but get the feeling that it's not even cable that's doing in the networks: its the actual loss of viewers from TV itself! Older viewers are losing the TV habit in favor of the outdoors and the Internet, and younger viewers (fed a steady diet of relatively uninspiring fare on Nickelodeon and Cartoon Network) are unlikely to be as hard-core in their TV viewing habits as some of the preceding generations of TV viewers. And with disarray in the new Digital TV medium nowhere near resolved, its unlikely that these trends will be reversed any time soon (if ever). It makes me wonder if anyone will be left watching TV in a few years...
And speaking of challenging broadcast network programming, cable/satellite TV greatly intensified its wholesale poaching of TV viewers this year. From USA Network's "La Femme Nikita" and "Moby Dick", to Nickelodeon and the Cartoon Network, to Comedy Central and "South Park", to TNT's poaching of "Babylon 5" and Sci-Fi Channel's poaching of "Sliders", to HBO and its hugely successful "From the Earth to the Moon", (relatively) popular fare is showing up all over cable. And even this is just the tip of the iceberg, as new channels (e.g. Independent Film Channel, Sundance Channel, Food Channel, Home & Garden, Animal Planet, etc.) proliferate, the networks look to be in real trouble from the ever-increasing competition. And cable/satellite continues to grow in strength...
Of the declining broadcast networks this season, only WBN (i.e. "The WB") has had any success in terms of content and in terms of growing its audience. Continuing on from last season, WBN has been very adept at programming the types of shows the other networks are ignoring (i.e. shows targeted at teens and early 20somethings), which accounts for some of their success. However, the real story behind The WB's success this season has more to do with its station lineup than its programming. Were it not for the Sinclair Group station switch from UPN to WBN in January, the Press (and this newsgroup) wouldn't even be talking about WBN, and many fewer people would actually be watching it. As much as "7th Heaven", "Buffy" and "Dawson's Creek" might appeal to their loyal viewers, it can't be ignored that these shows still represent but a fraction of the "Big 3's" audience and are far from mainstream successes. Which puts WBN's executives in a bind: do they continue with what they are doing and concentrate their appeal on their narrow (mostly young, female) audience (a demographic that can be fickle), or do they try to broaden their appeal which risks turning off their loyal audience without increasing viewership? These questions will determine how successful WBN is over the next couple of seasons.
Another continuing factor in the decline of the broadcast networks is syndicated programming, especially syndicated 1-hour dramas (both first-run and back-end syndicated shows). Many of these shows are doing quite well too, from the long running "Star Trek: Deep Space 9" to "Hercules" & "Xena" to newer shows such as "Earth: Final Conflict" and Disney's "Honey I Shrunk the Kids". Even syndicated reruns of shows like "The X-Files" and "NYPD Blue" are doing quite well (and "ER" is around the corner as well). While I thought these syndicated shows would mostly disappear with the expansion of WBN and UPN, there are, if anything, more of these shows now than there were just a few years ago. And then there's the rather scurrilous lineup of syndicated 'daytime' talks shows (are "Jerry Springer" and "Sally" really 'daytime' fare?!), which continue to be popular. Usually very profitable for individual stations (often network affiliated stations), these syndicated shows sure aren't helping the broadcast nets any!
Falling down the charts from last year, NBC (last year's #1 net for me) looks to be weaker than it has been in a while. It's still the #1 watched network. And they got lucky with "Just Shoot Me" (which is funny). But, with "Seinfeld" gone, they only have a few funny sitcoms left (e.g. "Frasier", "Friends", "Third Rock from the Sun", and maybe "Working", aside from "Just Shoot Me"); the rest of their sitcoms (from "Newsradio" to "Caroline" & "Susan" to "Veronica's Closet" to "Mad About You") fall somewhere in among unremarkable to disappointing to embarrassing to abysmal. The good news is that NBC is cutting back on sitcoms for next season; the bad news is that they're going with more installments of the awful "Dateline NBC". NBC still has a few dramas going for it (e.g. "ER"), but even some of those (e.g. "The Pretender", "Profiler") are menaced by unrealistic expectations from Littlefield, Ohlmeyer and co. (though at least these two shows were renewed for next Fall), while many others are aging shows (e.g. "Law & Order") or are shows that appear to have been ruined by network interference and cast and crew defections (e.g. "Homicide"). Further, NBC network goons seem determined to ruin even some of their good shows by moving them out of successful timeslots and by sticking them on losing nights (e.g. "3rd Rock", which again gets stuck on NBC worst night next season). They did redeem themselves by moving "Frasier" to Thursdays next Fall. Still, while it is my bet that NBC remains the top rated network next season, I predict it will also continue to lose viewers...
Next in line in my estimation are FOX and CBS, mostly because they made programming decisions that actually held on to viewers, while other networks made decisions that tended to cost them viewers. Neither network has what I consider to be bold programming (especially disappointing in FOX's case, as this network used to break new ground, which it looks to be trying next Fall), but at least CBS figured out what its demographics really are, and programmed accordingly. In any case, based on the show it has ordered for next Fall, FOX does look to be a little bolder next year. Maybe CBS will learn a few new tricks as well. And, at least both nets are keeping their schedules mostly in tact next season, which should help them in continuing to hold on to viewers.
Better off this season than last (even though they are still, technically, ranked second to last again) is (gasp!) UPN. "How can you say that UPN is better off," you ask, "when they actually lost viewers?!" Because UPN, having recognized its weaknesses, actually appears to be turning things around. They could have done more (why are they holding on to the disappointing "Voyager" or even ratings cellar-dwellers "Moesha" and "Clueless", I'll never know!). But getting the new "Love Boat" was a stroke of smart programming, and if UPN can expand on that, they might actually rebound. Then again, looking at some of the new shows they ordered, UPN may not be any better off next season. Still, even modest improvements should be recognized...
Meanwhile, the woes at ABC not only continue: they intensify! ABC has basically one really good show left... one: "The Practice". Meanwhile, previous ratings champs, like "Home Improvement", get renewed, despite the fact that they have declined to new lows in both writing and ratings. On top of that, ABC buries its few good shows (e.g. "C-16") guaranteeing their cancellation, while programming other shows (e.g. "Push") which are so poorly made that they look like cheap cable fare. Besides that, the few popular shows they have (e.g. "Spin City", "Dharma & Greg", "Drew Carey") are basically overrated dreck. When your bright spot for the season is "Two Guys, a Girl and a Pizza Place" (a *FOX* sitcom cast-off!), I think you've hit bottom. The good news is that ABC's Fall '98 schedule looks a little better. A little better...
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