rec.arts.tv Commentary:

Fall '96 Premieres: My Predictions & Picks

This article was written, by me, on Setpember 22, 1996 
and posted to the rec.arts.tv newsgroup. 
That original article has been somewhat edited by me 
before being placed on the web on October 6, 1996.


     Well, as this is the official beginning of the Fall Premiere season, 
I thought I'd take a closer look at what we'll be seeing this year, what 
looks likely to be the audience WINNERS, and (in the shameless promotion 
category) what shows will be MY PICKS. If one of "my picks" in "[...]", 
it means I'm not strongly committed to it; very competitive slots get a 
"TOSSUP" from me. 


Let's look at this night by night:

SUNDAYS:

Like last year, this will be a competitive night, at least at 8:00 pm (I'm sure that dead horse "60 Minutes" will continue to win at 7pm). At 8:00pm, we have CBS's religious drama "Touched by an Angel" vs. NBC's hip comedy "3rd Rock From the Sun" vs. ABC's romantic fantasy "Lois & Clark" vs. FOX's hip cartoon "The Simpsons" vs. comedies on WBN and UPN. At 9:00 pm it's the Big Three's TV movies vs. FOX's "The X-Files" (starting later in October). Meanwhile, judging from the season premiere, the recasting in USA's "Silk Stalkings" will reinvigorate the show, and will again make it cable's contenter for this night.

WINNERS :
CBS's "Touched by an Angel" will be the overall audience winner, and CBS will regain the dominance it formerly had here. NBC's superior "3rd Rock" will win the demographics race. ABC's "Lois & Clark" is showing its age, and should lose audience share this year. FOX will continue to plug along with "The Simpsons" and "Ned & Stacy".
The wisdom of moving "The X-Files" will be tested: IMHO, it will prove to be a foolish move, and I expect "The X-Files" to be moved out later on.
My PICKS:

MONDAYS:

The big "buzz" here is on CBS's attempts to cash in on "big" (read: aging) stars in an attempt to shore up one of CBS's only two winning nights. So far, reviews are positive on both "Cosby" and "Pearl" (no word yet on the retooled "Ink"). CBS's finishes the night with the critically loved (but, in my opinion, weak) drama "Chicago Hope" which beat ABC's "Murder One" last year.

Against CBS's comedies are arrayed weak comedies on NBC, football and "Dangerous Minds" on ABC, and "Melrose Place" and a couple of weak comedies on FOX. In a stroke of brilliance, the Execs at WBN figured out how to counterprogram all of this with the religious drama "7th Heaven" and steamy soap "Savannah". As for UPN, well, after the "Nowhere Man" debacle last season, who cares...

WINNERS :
CBS's will continue be the overall audience winner, and the new curmudgeonly "Cosby" will be an improvement over the saccharin Cosby of the early 80's. In short, "Cosby" should do well (it remains to be seen about "Ink"). FOX will easily win second place. WBN will improve and may beat UPN overall based simply on the strength of the ratings for this night. (I'm leaving ABC's "Monday Night Football" out of this analysis, as it's only around for half a season.)
My PICKS:

TUESDAYS:

In my opinion, this is the weakest night of the new season. NBC destroyed a pretty good lineup by moving shows out to Wednesdays, and moving "Mad About You" and "Caroline in the City" in. ABC has never impressed me with "Roseanne" and "Home Improvement". And CBS and FOX have struggled in the past, and don't look any better now. Doesn't look promising, except for ABC's new "Spin City", which seems to be (in my opinion) one of the few potential bright spots of the new season.

WINNERS :
ABC should succeed here this year, demolishing everything on NBC Tuesday, except the superior "Frasier". ABC's "Spin City" looks especially promising, and will take down NBC's "Caroline". UPN and FOX look mighty weak here. CBS, I believe, may make inroads with "Promised Land"; but then again, I said the same thing last year about CBS's "The Client"...
My PICKS:

WEDNESDAYS:

Both CBS and NBC have moved in on this night with a vengeance! ABC and FOX formerly ruled here with shows such as "90210", "Ellen" and last year's freshman "Drew Carey". ABC adds the new Molly Ringwald vehicle "Townies" to its lineup after "Ellen"; FOX sticks with its old lineup of "90210" and "Party of Five".

CBS has brought in "The Nanny", "Pearl", "Almost Perfect" (the lone CBS freshman to survive to season #2), and Steven Bochco's controversial, and not critically received, "Public Morals". NBC tries out "Wings", "Larroquette", "NewsRadio" and the new, and potentially promising, "Men Behaving Badly". Meanwhile, UPN goes sci-fi with "The Sentenel" and "Voyager". WBN sticks with it original lineup of sitcoms.

At 10pm, NBC's dominant "Law & Order" will be challanged by CBS's new "EZ Streets".

WINNERS :
This should be interesting. FOX's "90210", and NBC's "Wings" for that matter, are showing their age, in a big way! And "Ellen" may self-destruct with its potentially foolish "coming out" storyline. If "Pearl" is good, it and "The Nanny" could succeed for CBS. UPN will do well with "The Sentenel".
At 9pm, FOX should keep "Party of Five's" loyal (though fairly small) audience. NBC could gain here with "NewsRadio" and "Men". CBS will probably flounder at 9pm. But ABC will probably win in this time period overall, with "Grace Under Fire" and "Drew Carey".
In the "no accounting for taste" category, expect NBC's "Law & Order" to beat CBS's "EZ Streets", which may be this season's "Murder One" (i.e. a very good drama that no one knows about).
My PICKS:

THURSDAYS:

On the "Come on, give it up!" night, it'll still be NBC, and then everyone else. Too bad. NBC's "Friends" slumped badly last season, and no longer deserves the ratings it gets. NBC's "The Single Guy" is pretty much acknowledged to be a fairly marginal show (and the recently announced cast changes don't do anything to change the opinion). And I'm extremely dubious about the new "Suddednly Susan" with Brooke Shields. While "Seinfeld" had a great season last year, it faltered badly in the finale. Even "ER" had a medicore season last year!

FOX sticks with its challangers, "Martin", "Living Single" and "New York Undercover", and will continue to win among minority audiences on Thursdays. ABC goes with returnies "High Incident" and "Murder One", and the newsshow "Turning Point". CBS goes with the older-skewing "Diagnosis: Murder" and the intriguing "Maloney" with Peter Strauss, finishing off with the Dan Rather vehicle "48 Hours".

It should not be forgotten that, in many markets, popular syndicated shows "Star Trek: Deep Space 9" and "Babylon 5" air on this night.

WINNERS :
Is there any doubt?! Perhaps unfortunately, no. It'll be NBC in a walk. The race for second will between FOX and ABC.
My PICKS:

FRIDAYS:

An intriguing night, with intriguing choices. That is, for those of us who aren't out on Fridays. At 8pm, ABC has the aging "Urkel Show" and the promising new Melissa Joan Hart vehicle "Sabrina, the Teenaged Witch". But that's for kids. CBS goes for "adult" comedy with "Dave's World" and the new "Everybody Loves Raymond" (apparently rec.arts.tv doesn't!). NBC goes with the long-running "Unsolved Mysteries". FOX returns with a full season of "Sliders". On cable, we get USA's "Renegade".

At 9pm, ABC goes with the new "Clueless" (based on the movie), and the returning "Boy Meets World". A "Clueless" TV show as smart as the "Clueless" movie could do quite well; but expect ABC to dumb the TV version down considerably. NBC continues with "Dateline". CBS and FOX both reach for new dramas: "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" with Scott Bakula, and "Millenium" with Lance Henriksen, respectively.

At 10pm, the battle between NBC's "Homicide", CBS's "Nash Bridges" and ABC's "20/20" continues.

WINNERS :
The 8-9pm slot is, frankly, dreadful. Expect ABC to win in the overall ratings here. CBS's comedies, "Dave" and "Raymond", will get drubbed, just like CBS did last year. The battle for 2nd will likely go to NBC, though it's possible that "Sliders" may gain with so little competition.
At 9pm, the question is will "Millenium" pick up where "The X-Files" left off? Personally, the answer is no (I'm getting tired of Chris Carter and "The X-Files"); but is everyone else? I expect ABC to win overall, with "Dateline" in 2nd, and the battle for 3rd close between FOX and CBS.
At 10pm, "20/20" will win overall. Last year, CBS's upstart midseason show, "Nash Bridges", bloodied NBC's "Homicide", at least at first. But over time, "Homicide" picked up steam. If "Mr. & Mrs. Smith" doesn't do well as a lead in, "Homicide" will beat "Bridges".
My PICKS:

SATURDAYS:

Most people are out on Saturdays, and those that are left tend to be families who watch CBS's "Dr Quinn" and "Walker, Texas Ranger". CBS adds the feel-good "Early Addition" to this mix at 9pm.

NBC, ABC and FOX have fumbled for a response to CBS, and so far they've come up snake-eyes! This year, FOX continues to battle back with "Cops", followed by the relocated "Married With Children" and the new MWC-clone "Love & Marriage". ABC goes with a puzzling drama-sitcom-drama strategy: this kind of lineup has never worked in the past. ABC's entrants are the returning "Second Noah", the moved "Coach", the new "Common Law", and the new romance (targetting ex-"Sisters" watchers) "Relativity". NBC tries the risky, ambitious drama-drama-drama route with "Dark Skies", "The Pretender" and "Profiler".

On cable, USA has a complete night of comedies and dramas.

WINNERS :
And, the winner is... CBS, CBS, and CBS. As much as it pains me to say it, I doubt these other guys have a chance. And too bad: NBC's shows and ABC's "Relativity" sound pretty good. Expect NBC to come in second.
My PICKS: 

Anyway, that's my take on it...

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