Article posted to r.a.tv : August 21, 2005. Article posted to this site: August 27, 2005.
Better late than never, eh?... But let's get this done before the semi-official start of the Fall 2005 season (with FOX's "Prison Break" on Aug. 29).
I'm not going to go into the details of the entire schedule; for that check out any of:
http://www.tvpicks.net/fallpreviews/2005-06fallgrid.html
http://www.epguides.com/grid/fall.shtml
http://www.thefutoncritic.com/cgi/charts.cgi?id=primetime_grid
http://www.tvguide.com/showguide/grid.asp
First, my projected network breakdown for Fall 2005:
ABC : 2-4 hours (Up a little from last year...)
CBS : 4-8 hours (Up maybe an hour (probably 2) from last Season.)
FOX : 3-4 hours (Exactly the same as last Season!)
NBC : 1-2 hours (Also exactly the same as last year.)
UPN : 0-1 hours ("Veronica Mars" is the only UPN show I'm watching,
and even that is kind of iffy...
WBN : 3-4 hours (This is actually down several hours over the last few
years, and would be down an additional hour if some
other net had bothered to program Wed @ 8pm!)
Other: 0-3+ hours (I'm really guessing here...)
CONCLUSION: CBS still leads with me. However, several of their shows (see esp. Friday night) are tenuous with me. After CBS, FOX still has some pull with me, with ABC coming up, and The WB in decline. NBC & UPN are really after-thoughts on my end.
Anyways, let's do analysis of the 2005 Fall Season night-by-night:
| Sundays | Mondays | Tuesdays | Wednesdays | Thursdays | Fridays | Saturdays |
Analysis: No real changes for me here from last season.
Though "Charmed" is clearly
running on fumes at this point, I've been with it since the beginning, so I'll stick
with what will almost certainly be the show's final[e] season.
Meanwhile, "Desperate Housewives"
finished as my2nd favorite '04-'05 show (after "24"), and
I have high hopes that it'll continue on with the same high level of quality
in
season #2. And if I'm up at 10pm, I'll probably watch my favorite "Love/Hate
(mostly hate)"
show, "Grey's Anatomy", just for "laffs".
As for my pre-Primetime shows, now that I've basically seen
all of season #5 of "The Tribe", and will have seen pretty
much the entire run of "Edgemont" by next month, it looks like I'll
need to be on the lookout for new shows for after-football.
THE REAL SCOOP: No mystery here - expect CBS's "Cold Case" to continue to dominate
at 8pm (along with "60 Minutes" at
7pm), with ABC cleaning
up with "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy"
at 9pm & 10pm.
I really do not expect newcomer, NBC's "The
West Wing", to do much here, except take up residence in what
will likely be the show's final season. Meanwhile, expect NBC to continue
to muddle on with L&O:CI (it's hard to say if the casting 'switch
off' will help or hurt it), while doing slightly better at 10pm
with "Crossing Jordan".
Everyone else is an 'also-ran' - FOX's Sunday line-up
has been in decline for years, and CBS's Movies are either 'hit or miss'
in the ratings, making them inconsistent performers.
Analysis: For several seasons in a row now, one of my
primary problems has always been - "What do I do with Mondays @ 8pm?!"
(It's not like I'm a "7th Heaven" viewer!)
Luckily, I may finally have an answer now: NBC's new
Skiffy drama, "Surface". Now,
granted, I'm not expecting this show to be "great". But I figure
it'll at least be watchable (and hopefully at least passably entertaining),
and that's really all I ask out of a show.
At 9pm, I'm actually looking forward to FOX's
new drama "Prison Break" - it
has an intriguing premise, and the 2nd most intriguing show structure
(after FOX's "Reunion"), among any of the new shows.
In January, my fave "24" returns
(with "House" going in at 8pm!) - YAY!!
At 10pm, I usually aim to crash on Mondays, but
if I'm still up, I'll check out perennial "man crush"
Horatio Caine and the over-caffeinated 'fighters for Justice' on
CBS's "CSI: Miami".
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS was put in a pickle in
May with "Raymond" ending, and "Still Standing"
tanking at 8pm, so they've gone a little more radical here - the aging "King
of Queens" has gone into replace "Still Standing" as
the 8pm anchor, while the only recent comedy hit that anyone has
had, "Two and a Half Men", has been moved in to replace the
departing "Raymond". On top of that, CBS' has gone with the
relatively risky strategy of premiering two new comedies, while keeping
"CSI: Miami" firmly ensconced at 10pm.
The upshot? CBS has dominated this night
for the last several seasons, and that will continue, though I do think CBS's
'margin of victory' will be reduced with this new lineup.
ABC will continue to have strength (though still declining)
from Monday Night Football (which moves to ESPN come Fall 2006).
NBC has made headway with "Medium" ("Las
Vegas" seems to be 'treading water' nowadays) but it still won't
beat "CSI: Miami" at 10pm. Meanwhile, UPN continues its
successful "Urban comedy" niches.
But The WB looks like it's in real trouble here - "7th
Heaven" was finally starting to lose its status as The WB's #1
show last season here, and I can't imagine the new "Just Legal"
taking off for The WB. In fact, The WB's entire lineup plays out like this,
and I expect 2005-2006 to be a bad year for the (former) Frog.
Analysis: For the first time in what seems like ages,
FOX has actually put together an entire night of programming together that
I intend to watch that doesn't involve at least one 'Skiffy' show.
Will wonders never cease?!
But CBS's disastrous move to put Lauren Holly on
"NCIS" has absolutely killed that show for me, so
I'd rather give David Boreanaz's new procedural
"Bones" a whirl.
9pm is a no-brainer: With UPN's "Veronica
Mars" gone from here, FOX's superior
"House" is it
for me!!
At 10pm, if I'm up, I'll try CBS's new Jennifer
Finnigan-led "Close to Home".
(If anyone can carry a show with a so-so premise, it's Jennifer Finnigan!)
THE REAL SCOOP: Tuesdays is still a tale in
two parts: pre-"Idol" and intra-"Idol".
Pre-"Idol", a lot of networks are throwing
a lot of potentially popular programming at us - everything
from ABC's 'upscale' "Commander-in-Chief" to NBC's new comedy
"My Name Is Earl" to FOX's new "Bones"
to even a new UPN drama ("Sex, Love & Secrets").
Generally, in the pre-"Idol" period,
CBS beats everybody else in the ratings.
Intra-"Idol", CBS
still generally wins the night in overall viewers, but gets hammered by
FOX in the supposedly 'hot' "demos" (like I care!),
with "Idol" usually handily winning the 8pm
timeslot.
The pre-"Idol" wrinkle for CBS
this year (as opposed to last) is the cast upheaval at "NCIS" - as
their lead-off show, any negative reaction to that could hurt CBS's whole line-up.
Beyond that, though, I expect "The Amazing Race" to continue
to be a solid performer, though it's anyone's guess if
"Close to Home" will catch on.
Intra-"Idol", FOX switches the
follow-up show to AI - it will now be "Bones"
(provided plans don't change), whereas last year it was "House"
(which finally earned 'hit' status after AI). It's also anybody's
guess as to whether "Bones" will benefit as much
from AI as a lead-in as "House" did.
Beyond CBS & FOX, NBC doesn't look to be making
any headway from 8-10pm, and I'm not expecting ABC to win with
"Commander-in-Chief" at 9pm.
Of the rest, UPN is running a "Next Top
Model" rerun as a "placeholder" - so expect the
new drama after it to *really* bomb! Meanwhile, The WB will continue
to do very well with "Gilmore Girls"
(while the show after it, "Supernatural", looks
to me to be another quick flame-out).
With CBS's "Judging Amy"
finally gone, the 10pm face-off will play out
a little differently this year: expect NBC's L&O:SVU
to win overall. The real battle is for second, between ABC's David E.
Kelley absurdist "Boston Legal" and CBS's newest
legal drama "Close to Home". I'd rate that battle
as a 'toss up'.
Analysis: A lot of networks seem to be making a lot of
moves on this night, this Fall, and it's not making my job any easier.
The first problem is 8pm - there is literally almost NOTHINGto watch in this timeslot. I won't even bother listing
the unappealing options, but the fact that I'm forced to watch WBN's
"One Tree Hill", a show I lost all respect for last Fall, you know things are bad.
The opposite problem exists at 9pm - in this timeslot,
there are 2 shows I want to watch badly, another 2 shows that
I'd probably like to sample, and in lesser seasons I might have even
taken a look at the remaining two network's (FOX's & NBC's) shows.
Oy!
Ultimately, I value ABC's
"Lost" more than UPN's
"Veronica Mars", so I'll probably
watch the former and record the latter. Unless I decide to reverse
that...
Like I said - this ain't easy!
At 10pm, ABC is trying the new Skiffy show
"Invasion" against CBS's "CSI:NY"
and NBC's L&O. I'm absolutely not a fan of latter-day
L&O (Annie Parisse, or no!), so that's out. And I found
"CSI:NY" to be basically clunky and uninteresting in
its premiere season. So that would seem to give the edge to ABC's
"Invasion", though I'm not 'sold' on that show either.
I guess it's a good thing that I usually go for shuteye here!
THE REAL SCOOP: ABC would seem to be going after
this entire night with gusto... except for the fact that they're leading off
their lineup with "George Lopez" and "Freddie"!
Clearly, ABC's not serious about winning the 8pm hour
then!!
Of the rest, CBS's sitcoms may win 8-9pm by default. I don't expect NBC to make
much (long-term) headway with "Martha Stewart Apprentice".
However, ABC will LOCK UP 9-10pm with "Lost",
which means that the new dramas on CBS, FOX & NBC are all likely
to go down in flames at 9pm.
Of the 'netlets', UPN will continue to do well with
"Next Top Model" - but whether
this will help "Veronica Mars", with VM
now being up against "Lost", is an open question.
I think people need to prepare themselves for the very real possibility
that "Veronica Mars" will only get through 13 second
season episodes before it's gone. On the other hand, The WB looks to be
on very shaky ground - there is no evidence (yet) that
"One Tree Hill" can anchor a night, and if the
promos are any indication "Related" will be
an egregious bomb.
At 10pm, the question is whether ABC's
"Invasion" can make any headway against NBC's L&O and CBS's "CSI: NY". And that's
what it is - a "question"...
Analysis: There's been a fair amount of "churn" on
my end in regards to Thursday nights. A few years ago, I watched a solid 3-hour
block of CBS. Then it was mostly FOX. Now it looks it a patchwork line-up of
The WB, FOX and CBS.
With The WB having moved
"Smallville" to Thursdays at 8pm,
and me having soured first on "Survivor" (is there any
"reality" left in 'reality TV'?!) and then on
"The O.C." (season-long story planning guys - look
it up!!), Clark Kent and the gang will be getting my undivided attention.
"Smallville" is not a "deep" show - in
fact, it's not a show I take even remotely seriously - but I'm still
fond of it.
At the 9pm hour, I'm planning on going with FOX's
intriguing new series, "Reunion" -
I like that show's proposed novel structure, and I like most of the
actors involved, so this seems like a 'no brainer'.
Meanwhile, of the alternatives at 9pm,
"Everwood" is another show which I thought had
a great first season, but then followed up with 2 later seasons that never
lived up to the first season's promise. Meanwhile, "CSI"
is a show I view as a 'lark', and has always been a show I've felt was
overrated. Of these two, if "Reunion" is off a night,
I'll probably next go to CBS, though I may still try to check out
"Everwood" to see if it rebounds in season #4
at all.
At 10pm, if I am still up, I'll be watching
"Without a Trace", even though
I felt it has declined in quality in every succeeding season as well.
But this is another show I have one a short leash, and I may end up
dropping WAT if it doesn't bounce back from its disappointing
3rd season.
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS
will continue to widen the gap over NBC this year, continuing
the trend from last year.
The 'wild cards' here are ABC, FOX and The WB
(probably in that order). (Despite the hype, I don't expect
UPN sitcoms to do much here...)
ABC is trying out
"Alias" and the new "Night
Stalker" remake here - this is a gutsy move, and it
may pay off. Why? Well, if people are as tired of
"The O.C." as I am, then it will sink fast
and (unfortunately) take "Reunion" down with it,
leaving ABC (and/or The WB) to benefit. Meanwhile, The WB audience for
"Smallville" and "Everwood"
are fairly loyal, and I expect most of them to follow both shows to
Thursdays.
Analysis: Eeee...
There was a time, not even all that long ago,
where you could find some watchable shows on Fridays. Well, like
Saturdays before it, Friday's offerings get weaker and weaker every year.
(I'm still expecting the nets to effectively stop programming
Fridays as well Saturday, in the not too distant future.)
So now there's really not much to choose from.
At 8pm, we have two sets of sitcoms on two networks,
a reality show on a third, a newsmagazine on NBC, and wrestling on UPN.
The one lone drama (as much as it pains me) is the Love Hewitt-led
"Ghost Whisperer" on CBS.
Assuming I'm actually watching TV on Fridays, this show has me by
default. But just barely.
9pm is similarly bleak - only CBS and FOX are
running dramas, and FOX's new procedural, "Killer Instinct",
has gone through so many title and cast changes that I no longer
have any faith in the show. So CBS's
"Threshold" wins - again by
default.
At 10pm is a show I'm actually looking forward
to - CBS's returning "Numb3rs"
(now, with Diane Farr!!). So I'll be watching that.
THE REAL SCOOP: As the only
network running dramas, I expect CBS to win here
again. (Last season, CBS narrowly won Fridays, on balance.)
The one 'fly in the ointment' is NBC's new
'feel good' reality show "Three Wishes"
at 9pm - this could be a sleeper hit,
and could mortally wound CBS's "Threshold".
Meanwhile, of the sitcom also-rans, ABC will
win a Pyrrhic victory here, with The WB holding on, and FOX's sitcoms
sent off to die.
As for WWE wrestling, that's been on
the decline for UPN for a while, and it would not surprise me if
this were "Smackdown!'s" final season on a broadcast
network.
Analysis: Saturday nights are still dead on the networks. Nothing to see here. Move along...
THE REAL SCOOP: I still expect within about 5-7 years, the (Big Three) networks will officially stop programming on Saturday nights.
| Sundays | Mondays | Tuesdays | Wednesdays | Thursdays | Fridays | Saturdays |
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