Article posted to r.a.tv : September 7, 2004. Article posted to this site: September 12, 2004.
Hey kids! Now you don't have to worry about Fall 2004. Why? Because I'm telling
you my proposed sched.!
That's the good news.
The bad news? There are so few new shows that are worth checking out that
you might as well just surf
to my Proposed
2003 Fall Schedule because so little has changed! Argh!
I'm not going to go into the details of the entire schedule; for that checkout:
http://www.tvguide.com/showguide/grid.asp
http://www.epguides.com/grid/fall.shtml
http://www.tvpicks.net/fallpreviews/2004-05fallgrid.html
First, my projected network breakdown for Fall 2004:
ABC : 1-3 hours (Very roughly the same as last season...)
CBS : 3-6 hours (Roughly the same as last Fall.)
FOX : 3-4 hours (Up a little from last season, but FOX would have
gotten another hour from me if they had gone with
"Point Pleasant"... (late update: FOX *has* picked up
"Point Pleasant" for Mid-Season/Jan. '05! - ed.)
NBC : 1-2 hours (Pretty much the same as last year.)
UPN : 0! hours (Same as last season - UPN *still* hasn't had
a watchable show in years...)
WBN : 4-6 hours (Pretty close to last year.)
Other: 1-3+ hours (This is only a very rough guess...)
CONCLUSION: This is a closer race than last year. The WB has the biggest "floor" from me - no matter what, I'll be watching at least 4 hours of The Frog. But CBS has the highest ceiling - depending on the week, an outright plurality of my Primetime TV viewing might go to CBS. FOX is #3 with me, with ABC & NBC getting odds-and-ends, and UPN getting bupkis!
Anyways, let's do analysis of the 2004 Fall Season night-by-night:
| Sundays | Mondays | Tuesdays | Wednesdays | Thursdays | Fridays | Saturdays |
Analysis: Sundays sport the one (and only!) new show
I'm looking forward to - ABC's "Desperate Housewives".
Beyond that, not much has changed for me: pre-Primetime, I'll
watch MoviePlex's "Higher Ground" reruns and "The
Tribe" in the afternoon, and The WB's "Easy View'
"One Tree Hill" reruns
at 5pm. Early Primetime (7pm) is a wasteland again, leading into WBN's
"Charmed" at
8pm (for how long with me, I don't know...), "Desperate Housewives" at
9pm (and, if I'm really amp'ed up, possibly NBC's "Crossing Jordan" at 10pm).
THE REAL SCOOP: Last season, this night tended to be all over the map, with CBS coming close to winning it, but with various challenges from NBC, ABC and FOX complicating the picture. For Fall 2004, it's clear that FOX's lineup is in decline, and ABC is struggling, so the real fight (once again) will be between CBS & NBC. Expect CBS to win 7-9pm, and NBC to win 9-11pm, just like last year. Meanwhile, The WB will plod along with "Charmed", but will likely strike out with their new shows at 7pm & 9pm.
Analysis: The problem on Mondays, as it has been for several
years now, is - "What do I do with 8pm?!"
The answer is a little clearer to me now that FOX has extended
the run of the silly, but fun, "North Shore". (Later on, "The
O.C." 'companion' show, "Athens" will debut, and I'll likely check
that out as well.) These all sound preferable to CBS's "Still Standing" a
show that makes my skin crawl a little bit.
Once again, at 9pm, that leaves pretty much "Everwood" as
the only show I consider to be truly watchable in the time-period (I like CBS's "Two & a
Half Men", but I'm not leaving "Everwood" for it!), at least through
December. (NBC's "Las Vegas" is OK, but it's not the kind of show where
I'll care if I miss an episode, or 10...)
Come January, though, it's 'VCR Time!' as "24" returns
opposite "Everwood", forcing me to watch "24", and record "Everwood" for
later viewing. I hate it when that happens! (Note: If "The Mountain" tanks,
like I expect it might, look for The WB to put "Everwood" back in 'Easy
View' Sunday, at 6pm, once "24" debuts...)
At 10pm, I'll check out "LAX", but I generally don't
stay up past 10pm on Mondays.
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS has wisely gone with continuity (save
last-minute mid-season save, "Yes Dear"), which is doubly important
as this is "Raymond's" last season. The only new CBS show is Jason
Alexander's "Listen Up", which looks to be a snug fit here. No matter
- CBS will continue to dominate here, I think.
ABC will continue to have strength (though still declining) from Monday
Night Football. NBC has made headway with "Las Vegas", but there is a real
question as to whether Heather Locklear-led "LAX" can make much of
a dent in the horrid "CSI: Miami" at 10pm. Meanwhile, The WB and UPN
will continue their successful niches, though the open question this year is
whether The WB"s "Everwood" might finally surpass lead-in
"7th Heaven" in the ratings - Stay Tuned!
Analysis: Just like the last two seasons, I'm ambivalent
(and unmotivated) about 8pm - the choice really is only "Gilmore Girls" (which
had a truly atrocious 4th season, up until near the end of that season), and
CBS's humorous but silly "NCIS" - I'm leaning toward "NCIS",
once I see the fallout from Rory/Dean on GG.
9pm is now moot: While last season saw FOX's "24" vs.
The WB's "One Tree Hill", "24" has now
moved elsewhere. So "One Tree Hill" is it
for me, BABY!
At 10pm, I'll stick with "NYPD Blue",
in its final season, if I'm still up that late.
THE REAL SCOOP: Tuesdays is really a tale of two stories:
pre-"American Idol" and intra-"Idol". Pre-"Idol",
CBS smokes everybody. Intra-"Idol", CBS still generally wins the
night in overall viewers, but gets hammered by FOX in the supposedly 'hot' "demos" (like
I care!), with "Idol" usually handily winning the 8pm timeslot.
The pre-"Idol" wrinkle this year is that CBS has cancelled 3-year 9pm
series "The Guardian", and has instead scheduled a new drama,
"Clubhouse", that appears to be targeted at much broader audience than
"The Guardian" was - only time will tell if this ends up being a smart move.
Intra-"Idol", FOX follows up AI with a new drama,
"House" that not only is ambiguously named, but looks to be one
of about a dozen new rather mundane medical dramas (Yawn!) - in short, I don't expect this show to be a hit!
Beyond CBS & FOX, NBC looks to be virtually surrendering here, with tepid
reality ("Last Comic Standing") and a completely ill-conceived animated
comedy ("Father of the Pride" - what were they thinking?!), ABC looks
to try to rebuild its Tuesday comedy powerhouse (which, at least, is smart counter-programming),
though "8 Simple Rules" has been moved to Fridays. UPN experiments
with the new (non-Skiffy) drama "Veronica Mars" at 9pm,
and The WB goes with stability. Of these also-rans, look to ABC and
The WB to be the strongest of the bunch.
The 10pm face-off continues, and will play out like last year:
"Judging Amy" wins overall, L&O:SVU wins the demos
(though, with the weak lead-ins, it may be down some), and "NYPD Blue"
is a respectable 3rd.
Analysis: Wednesdays have turned out to be Fall's most
disappointing night for me.
The only thing I plan to watch for certain is The WB's
"Smallville", even though I found the 3rd season of the show
to be a huge let-down from the superior 2nd season. ABC's "Lost"
looks intriguing, but as this may be "Smallville's" last season, I'll stick with that,
and record "Lost" if it catches my fancy.
Things get bleaker from there. 9pm is nearly a total washout - it looks like I'm stuck with the Oliver Hudson-led sudser
"The Mountain", though it's by no means my choice
on the matter. But even than may be too "bad" a show for me, and I'll maybe
turn my TV off for the night.
10pm is almost as bad, as I pretty much despise present-day
"Law & Order", and I have very little enthusiasm for another
"CSI" show, considering what a complete crash-and-burn the first
"CSI" spin-off has turned out to be.
In short: Blech!
THE REAL SCOOP: The potentially most interesting face-off
of the Fall season is ABC's new drama "Lost" vs. NBC's new drama "Hawaii" -
at least these guys are trying something new here! (though "Hawaii" may
be more "old new" than "new new"). Meanwhile, UPN has moved
its mini-hit (well, for UPN, I guess it's considered to be a 'full on' "hit"), "America's
Next Top Model" to 8pm, as well.
In any case, exactly what is going to happen at 8pm is now
hard to predict. If I had to pick, I'd guess that ABC's
"Lost" and CBS's "60 Minutes (II)"
do best here, with UPN's "Next Top Model" and FOX's "That 70's Show" doing the best among the also-rans.
(I'm expecting this season to be "Smallville's" last,
so I expect its ratings to continue to decline, and it's like NBC's "Hawaii"
is so low in quality that it will be rejected out of hand by the viewing public...)
At 9pm, there's virtually nothing, so ABC's
"The Bachelor" and CBS's combo of "King of Queens" and
new sitcom "Center of the Universe" may
win by default. Meanwhile, The WB did end up moving new drama
"The Mountain" in here, where it'll probably do
well enough to muddle through to Mid-Season, but after that... your guess is as good as mine.
And UPN puts its one potentially interesting new drama,
"Kevin Hill", here.
At 10pm, it's this season's other interesting face-off: NBC's long-running
L&Ovs. new kids on the block - CBS's new spin-off
"CSI: NY" and ABC's new reality show "Wife Swap".
Prediction: "CSI: NY" comes in a definite 2nd, but takes a little bit
(more) off the aging L&O (which has been down 2 seasons in a row), while
"Wife Swap" is an also-ran, especially in the "demos".
Analysis: If Wednesdays are the worst night of the week
for me, the best night of the week has got to be Thursdays. There's a plethora
of programming here.
At 8pm, I'll be forced to watch "Survivor: Vanuatu"
(and I dare you to say "Vanuatu" 10 times, really fast!) for a couple of months.
But, come November, Ryan and the gang is back, and I'll be all over FOX's
"The O.C." like leather on a baseball!
At 9pm, miracle renewal "Tru Calling" returns...
[insert joke about Tru preventing her own death here]
...and I couldn't be more psyched. (Well, actually, I could be - I will miss
A.J. Cook, even though the show never did anything with her Lindsay character;
similarly, I think dumping the character of Tru's sister Meredith was a mistake
(presuming neither returns in season #2, and Entertainment Weekly seems
to indicate that that is indeed the case).)
And, on nights when "Tru" is off, I can always check
my brain at the door, and watch the original "CSI" (die! Sidel, die!!).
At 10pm, I'll be watching "Without a Trace",
even though I felt that season #2 was a bit of a let-down from season #1.
THE REAL SCOOP: Expect CBS to widen the gap over NBC this
year.
I've got to think that "The Apprentice" was
a bit of a 'one hit wonder', and won't get the same level of ratings this coming Fall.
Similarly, while I think "Joey" will likely do fine,
it's not going to be pulling down the ratings "Friends" did. And
all last season "Without a Trace" crept closer and closer to
"ER's" ratings, and this season WAT may finally
surpass the long-running medical drama/soap opera.
Of the also-rans, I expect FOX will do
well with "The O.C.", but I think we'll be lucky if
"Tru" is still airing come February 2005. Meanwhile, expect
ABC and The WB's new lineups to get crushed (in fact, The WB is stuck with
"One Tree Hill" reruns at 9pm, so they're already behind the 8-ball!).
Analysis: Fridays just don't look to be too appealing in
2004. At 8pm, I'm not a fan of CBS's "Joan of Arcadia" nor of The
WB's "What I Like About You"; meanwhile, ABC's "8
Simple Rules" is
just "Bleh!" without John Ritter. And beyond these 3, there really
isn't anything to choose from, except UPN's "Enterprise"
which is what I may be stuck with.
Things get slightly better at 9pm - at least there are some options here.
Against my better judgment, I ended up watching some "JAG" last year, and
so I'm up to speed enough that I could watch it... if I have to! I also watched NBC's
"Third Watch", which has now been moved up an hour, and
this will probably be my default choice. (Meanwhile, if you actually think I'm going to subject
myself to "Reba", you've got another thing coming!)
At 10pm, we have the face-off of the two new medical shows on
CBS & NBC. Of the two, CBS's "Dr. Vegas"
has the better cast and the better premise, so that's my choice.
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS looks likely to win again here. The only question is whether "JAG" can funnel enough viewers into "Dr. Vegas" to hold off NBC's new "Medical Investigation" - it's an open question (meanwhile, expect "20/20" to win 10pm overall). Of the rest, ABC will probably manage to continue to tread water with "TGIF", while FOX and UPN are virtually 'punting' on this night.
Analysis: Saturday nights are dead, dead, dead on the networks. I just pass right on by 'em on the way to Sci-Fi or Lifetime or ABC Family, etc.
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS was the only real player on this night,
but even they have now thrown in the towel by scrapping all of their original
scripted programming here. Leaving FOX with the only semi-"real" Saturday
night lineup left.
I expect within about 5-7 years, the (Big Three) networks will officially
stop programming on Saturday nights. You heard it here first...
Analysis: It's dead, Jim...
| Sundays | Mondays | Tuesdays | Wednesdays | Thursdays | Fridays | Saturdays |
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