Article posted to r.a.tv : May 19, 2003. Article posted to this site: May 29, 2003.
I'm not going to go into the details of the entire schedule; for that checkout:
http://www.tvguide.com/showguide/grid.asp
http://www.epguides.com/grid/fall.shtml
http://www.tvpicks.net/fallpreviews/2003-04fallgrid.html
First, my projected network breakdown for Fall 2003:
ABC : 1 1/2-3 1/2 hours (Roughly the same as last season...)
CBS : 3-5 hours (Down significantly from last Fall.)
FOX : 2 hours (This is down another hour from last season.)
NBC : 1-4 hours (Up several hours from last Fall.)
UPN : 0! hours (Same as last season - UPN hasn't had a watchable
show in years...)
WBN : 3 1/2-6 1/2 hours (Up significantly from last Fall,
continuing the trend of the last 2-3 years.)
Other: 1-3+ hours
CONCLUSION: For me, the winner for Fall 2003 is probably The WB, and maybe NBC. CBS is down slightly from a strong push last year. ABC holds steady, FOX continues to slide, and UPN is irrelevant.
Anyways, let's do analysis of the 2003 Fall Season night-by-night:
| Sundays | Mondays | Tuesdays | Wednesdays | Thursdays | Fridays | Saturdays |
Analysis: This line-up isn't changing much for me from
last year - "Charmed" is still the tentpole, and the lead-out is
still "Alias" (or L&O:CI). The main difference is the MoviePlex
has recent moved "The Tribe" to 6pm, meaning that I'll probably catch
up with the first season episodes of The WB's "Smallville" that I
missed.
Meanwhile, ABC and CBS both try new dramas out at 8pm vs. NBC's
shaky returning "American Dreams". FOX tries out two new sitcoms
at 8:30pm & 9:30pm, and NBC moves "Boomtown" from 10pm
for the new Rob Lowe drama "Lyon's Den". We'll see...
THE REAL SCOOP: FOX's sitcoms have tended to dominate this night, with CBS or NBC second, and ABC as an also-ran. There's nothing about this coming Fall that is likely to change that, especially with Kelley cutting the cast of "The Practice" (I'll be surprised if the 'new' "Practice" sees March of '04). Meanwhile, The WB is likely to continue to score with "Charmed", and strike out with the shows before and after "Charmed".
Analysis: As it has for several seasons now, I still continue
to view the line-ups on Monday night as "weak". If anything, Mondays
this Fall look even weaker, as FOX's line-up is likely to completely collapse,
CBS's sitcoms are aging (and often lame) and ABC is skating with football.
NBC is trying to shake thing up a little on Monday, tabling
"Dateline", moving "Third Watch" to 10pm
to challenge the woefully overrated and inferior "CSI: Miami",
and trying out a new James Caan drama "Las Vegas" at 9pm.
I pray that this works, as I'd consider it my only viable alternative line-up to The WB.
That leaves pretty much "Everwood"
as the only show I consider to be truly watchable.
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS will continue to dominate, ABC will continue to be second with Monday Night Football, NBC will keep afloat (but not dominate), and FOX will discover to its horror that lightening doesn't strike twice and controversy doesn't guarantee ratings. Meanwhile, The WB and UPN will continue their successful niches.
Analysis: Just like last season, 8pm is tough - I'll stick
with "8 Simple Rules" (though if it continues to decline in season
#2, I won't stick with it for long), forcing me to watch the second-30 minutes
of the 1-hour "Gilmore Girls". Elsewhere, CBS tries the
"JAG"-spinoff in "JAG's" old timeslot, ABC tries stability,
NBC tries to rebuild, UPN goes for an overhaul, and The WB tinkers.
9pm is a no-brainer: while I've had my problems with
"24's" second season, I am nowhere near ready to abandon
this show (especially now that "The Guardian" has crashed-and-burned creatively).
The most interesting face-off is Tuesdays at 10pm: estrogen-laden
"Judging Amy" on CBS vs. the two testosterone dramas of ABC's
"NYPD Blue" and NBC's newly moved &
quot;Law & Order: Special Victims Unit". Personally,
with Stephanie March gone, I'm leaning toward "Blue", but
I don't rule out checking out SVU.
But, regardless, while the most competitive timeslot last season
was Tuesdays at 9pm, this coming season it looks like the most competitive timeslot will
be Tuesdays at 10pm.
THE REAL SCOOP: This past season, CBS started out dominating
this night (with "The Guardian" clearly beating FOX's "24"),
ABC came on strong with new sitcoms, NBC tanked, The WB surged, and UPN disappointed.
Then "American Idol" happened.
Next Fall, FOX doesn't have the luxury of "American Idol"
(and their callow 'Kiddie Idol' will likely tank), which will hurt "24".
So, expect CBS (and to a lesser extent ABC)
to surge back into the lead. NBC will continue to sink, while UPN's new sitcom line-up is likely
to be an abject failure. On The WB, "Gilmore Girls"
will hold steady, while "Fearless" has "BOMB" written all over it,
just like "Birds of Prey" before it.
The 10pm face-off is the question mark: I expect "Judging Amy"
to hold steady, while SVU will gain on "NYPD Blue". (Could this be
"Blue's" Swan Song? Stay tuned...)
Analysis: With "Dawson's Creek" now gone <sniff,
sniff>, and with me now having gotten over my pro-"Roswell" resentment
of "Smallville", 8pm looks to be an easy pick for The WB, as
"Ed" and "Enterprise" are
tired (and tiresome), while "60 Minutes II" has never been an option,
and FOX's and ABC's sitcoms are not really my thing.
The real problem is 9pm - the sitcoms are out, I despise
"The West Wing", and CBS and ABC have taken a virtual powder here, rather
than aggressively counter-programming TWW. (And forget about UPN!) That leaves me stuck
with "Angel", or no TV at all. Surprisingly, that's a toss-up.
10pm sports CBS and ABC once again trying to take a run at NBC's
L&O. And just like every season, I'm rooting for one of them to pull it off
(ever though, every season, neither one does!). Of those choices, ABC's
"Karen Sisco" has the better cast and concept
than CBS's David Kelley show, so pencil me in for Carla Gugino, if I'm still up at 10pm
on Wednesdays...
THE REAL SCOOP: ABC's "The Bachelor" hurt NBC last
season, but ABC is overplaying that one, so the result this season will be
that ABC declines. But NBC has been weakened, and I don't expect it to rebound
either. So, the question is, who benefits?! CBS? FOX? The WB?! Beats me!
At 10pm, just follow the script: L&O
kills the competition, and both ABC and CBS retreat at mid-season. Is this just? No.
But it's inevitable... <sigh...>
Analysis: "Survivor" finally and irrevocably
punctured my 'suspension of disbelief' with the "Amazon" finale,
so I'm fishing for an alternative. And, luckily, FOX nibbled my line with the
Eliza Dushku-led skiffy thriller "Tru Calling".
Ian says, "Olé!" Meanwhile,
ABC comes on with "Threat Matrix", a show I would gladly have watched
- had it aired Mondays at 8pm, or Wednesdays at 9pm. Oh well, ABC! The WB goes
wacky with variety, and we all know the drill over at CBS, NBC and UPN.
9pm & 10pm are obvious: CBS's "C.S.I."
and "Without a Trace". Meanwhile, NBC tries
to Americanize another Britcom (last time "Men Behaving Badly",
this time "Coupling"), FOX goes new with a neo-"90210" called
"The O.C." and The WB goes hopeless with the returning Amanda Bynes vehicle
and a new sitcom that might as well be retitled "Cannon Fodder" and
"Cannon Fodder 2: The Spawning". .
THE REAL SCOOP: Repeat last season's results - "Friends" wins the 8:00pm half-hour (and expect those winning margins to increase as "Friends" draws down to a finale), "Survivor" and CBS rebound at 8:30pm. At 9pm, "CSI" will crush the competition, and WAT can be expected to narrow the gap with "ER" at 10pm. And just forget about ABC, FOX, UPN and The WB...
Analysis: Just like last season, Friday nights are once
again in flux next Fall, with every timeslot in play. The difference this Fall
as compared to last is that several of the networks seem to be making serious
plays here, including NBC, CBS, ABC and The WB.
For me, 8pm comes down to CBS's potentially intriguing
"Joan of Arcadia" vs. the Alicia Silverstone-led (and Darren Star-helmed)
"Miss Match". I love Silverstone, but I'm leaning toward
"Joan", at least for first looks.
9pm is a wash-out: FOX's "Boston Public" really lost
it in season #3 and probably isn't worth watching anymore, ABC's and The WB' sitcoms have
little appeal, and forget about "Dateline". That leaves me with the
cringe-inducing option of watching CBS's "JAG". I'm not sure I can make myself do it...
The edge at 10pm goes to NBC's "Boomtown",
which yielded a promising first season. But I love Joe Pantoliano so I will be checking out
CBS's "The Handler" too.
THE REAL SCOOP: In the preceding season, Fridays was pretty much NBC's to lose, with only CBS registering at all. This Fall, both CBS and NBC are making plays here, and I expect them to battle to a draw. In the sitcom battle, give the edge to The WB - ABC will fold "TGIF" by mid-season, I suspect. Meanwhile, even more than usual, FOX may be courting disaster here (and UPN continues to be a non-entity).
Analysis: The only option on the entire night is CBS's "Hack", now that CBS pulled the plug on "The Agency".
THE REAL SCOOP: CBS has been the only real player on this night, and while ABC is making a stab at it, they won't make any headway. Meanwhile, FOX will continue with the solid stand-bys, and NBC is an also-ran.
Analysis: Are you kidding?! The only syndie show left that is remotely worth watching is "Mutant X". Meanwhile, I would watch "She Spies", if it were actually on at a decent hour in half of the country. Damn those NBC affiliates...
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