Much of the information pertaining to musical careers is accurate at listing the potential income and education you need, but doesn't account for the probability of those jobs still existing when you get done with your education.

If you can, find someone in your field and talk to them candidly about their lives. Are they happy? Are they doing what they want to be doing? What do they like about it? What don't they like about it? What do they plan to be doing in 5 years? What would they do differently?

When I was high school I had the opportunity to play with older musicians in community bands where I grew up. Inevitably, there were some who were always complaining that there was no work anymore and that contemporary music was destroying the music business. At that time, I thought it was just someone blaming the outside world for their shortcomings. Now that I am older and more experienced I can understand where they were coming from. 

Popular taste in music changes constantly. As people mature, their tastes evolve and they don't always listen to the same kind of music as when they were 20 or 30 or 40. Consequently, there is less demand for musicians to play that style of music. 

There are other factors in society that change people's habits, too. Unfortunately for many people, live music loses it's importance in their lives as they mature. In my 30 year career, I have observed the number of live music opportunities decrease dramatically for professionals. Jobs that in 1970 seemed like they would last forever, are long gone. Styles of music that were everywhere have shrunk to a small cult of devoted fans. In general, the average person is less likely to see live music being performed casually today, than they were in the past. This is inevitable with the rise of music technology. 

Also, there is more competition for people's entertainment dollars. More sporting events, and more non-music entertainment. While this seems to have a direct impact on the musical performer, it also affects every aspect of music including education. In order to attract a sufficient number of students to continue your employment as a teacher, you may have to work with music that you don't like. Someday, we may have "grunge" or "rap" groups as part of the curriculum in our schools to draw students into playing musical instruments.

While it is true there are many billions of dollars spent on music and entertainment, it doesn't mean any of that money will be going to you.
 

The Impact of Technology.

The advance of technology is having a tremendous impact on the field of music. Until recently, for instance, it was almost impossible to have a career in music (outside of education) without living close to a major city. With the growth of the internet, it is possible now to create music anywhere, and make it available everywhere. 

Technology has had an impact on functional music, i.e. music played at wedding receptions, class reunions, etc. Initially, this has deprived some musicians of work, but in the long run I hope that it makes the live performance of music something special, something that people will pay a premium price for and will listen to intently. 

Also, the field of education will be undergoing significant changes. The internet can make home schooling easier for the average parent. Many feel there will always be a need for a hands-on person involved with teaching, but why can't it be a parent? Will we even have a need for public schools in the years to come? How will this affect the learning of music? Will there be any participation in school bands or choirs?

The evolution of music in the last century seems to be going away from the live performance, towards electronic storage and reproduction of specific events. In 1904, a musician would have to tour the entire country to perform for vast numbers of people. In 2004, you can record yourself and post it on the internet, without stepping out of your home. Now, consumers can access live performances on their TV and computers and don't need to go out to see music being performed.

To play the devil's advocate for a moment:
Why do people need to see an orchestra play Beethoven's 5th? There is very little visual excitement in watching an orchestra perform. A recording can reproduce the music faithfully, it's cheaper, and you can play it whenever you want.

It seems to me in contemporary popular music, the recording is the definitive performance, and live performances attempt to recreate the recording (there are exceptions, of course).

As people get used to the absence of live music, it probably won't be missed. Does anyone miss a pit orchestra playing for a silent film?

But it's not all darkness. In 2004, musicians can make their own CD's at home on their computer. It's easier on the internet to connect with other people who like the same type of music as you. There are more musical styles available then ever before.

There are many factors influencing the future for a person working in music, and it is impossible to predict which direction the industry will go. I do know from experience, however, it has always been like this and the people who survive these changes are the ones who are the most dedicated and flexible.

So if you choose to enter the field of music, good luck and hang on, it will be a bumpy and exciting ride.

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