Tue - March 27, 2007

Graduate Level Bloggers: Shawn Beilfuss 


Asia Logistics Wrap News and Commentary from Tokyo on Logistics in Asia 

Does the very word "logistics" threaten to put you to sleep?

It used to bore the hell out of me.

It doesn't anymore.

Everyone has heard Napoleon's quote to the effect that "an army moves on its stomach." If you understand that the short old frog was not talking about the low-crawl but about logistics. He would have appreciated the more modern adage that "amateurs talk about tactics, rank amateurs about grand strategy, but professionals talk about logistics."

If you want to understand the importance of the "L" word to doing business in Asia generally and China specifically, go spend some time reading Shawn Beilfuss' Asia Logistics Wrap.

Like any good strategist with a focus, he reaches well beyond his specialty to put it into a broader context. Just reading his posts about "space logistics" was worth it for me. His posts about the growing importance of China's railways - in a day and age when other developing nations are shunning the iron rail for airports, superhighways, and container ports.

Read Shawn, what he's reading, and be convinced.  

Posted at 09:43 PM    

Graduate Level Bloggers: Steven DeAngelis and The Guys on the Other Side of the Hill 


Enterprise Resilience Management Blog, Stephen F. DeAngelis, Principal, Enterra Solutions 

Stephen DeAngelis is an extraordinarily bright guy, working as he does with some very interesting clients to help figure out how to use well thought-out, well-packaged economic development as the principal weapon in the war on terrorism. Stephen is dedicated to making the world (and, more important, our policymakers) understand that the only way to end the river of homicide bombers is to give them all a better future to live for.

His blog posts read like lectures - not in the sense of them being esoteric and pedantic, but in terms of being so filled with insight that you want kill all the lights in the room, close the blinds, and turn off your iTunes just so DeAngelis' words go straight into your cortex. DeAngelis one more proof of the value of reading some of the better blogs out there.

Stephen has inspired me to create a list of what I will call "Graduate Level Bloggers," people who write blogs that are themselves like master classes. Read them and forget about having to go back and get your degree from Hopkins. You'll get more staying in your current job and reading these guys - and what they read.

Ind-ja!

Stephen has written an excellent post comparing and contrasting articles from recent editions of The Economist (subscription required) and BusinessWeek on the challenges India faces competing with it's trans-Himalayan neighbor and rival.

Despite a lot of sunshine that pundits have been pumping out about the sub-continent lately, the ugly truth is that India's leaders are having a hard time mustering the political cojones required to make the unpopular trade-offs that will buy India her future. Now, to an extent, I can't criticize, especially when America's leaders - in both the White House and on Capitol Hill, similarly lack the testicular fortitude to risk their own political careers in the name of vision.

America, however, does not face the same kind of challenges that India does.

We should all be rooting for India. If she succeeds in addressing the challenges that face her, it would give deep credibility to the argument that democracy can bring underdeveloped countries - and their peoples - out of destitution and into global-level prosperity.

If she fails, however, or becomes a laggard in a dynamic region, she will only give more credibility to those who say that only authoritarian regimes can assemble the necessary preconditions of national wealth.  

Posted at 08:47 PM    

Sun - March 18, 2007

China Retail: A High Altitude View 


Investing in China's Retail Industry, PriceWaterhouse Coopers, New York, April 2006, pdf, 12 pages 

PWC's report on investing in the retail industry in China is, as you would expect from a free 12-page report, a bit of a 50,000 foot overview of the industry, and as an introduction to the business for someone who knows little about retail in the PRC I suppose it's adequate. It focuses on the regulatory and structural nature of retail, both of which are critical.

But an overemphasis on scale as a determinant of success over other factors suggests a very narrow analytical framework. Yes, retail in China is still in its early stages of modernization, but there is more to success than the number of stores or square feet you are managing. There are a range of factors that could produce success that the report all but ignores.

For example:

• Chinese retailers are not merchandisers, they are real estate companies. Simply introducing strong merchandising skills, from product selection and price balance to display and promotion, can give a store a leg up on its competition. Simply having relationships with suppliers is not enough.

• While the country is moving in the direction of massive chains designed to serve broad swaths of the population, there are also emerging niche opportunities to service different parts of the market.

• The experience of buying stuff in China still, well, sucks, and is largely undifferentiated from place to place. Simply having more bigger stores that feel like, say, Jingkelong, is not going to prove an advantage in the long term. Chinese are looking for a better experience than they have been getting for the last several decades.

So use the PWC report as a starting point, but move quickly to more in-depth analysis.
 

Posted at 03:07 PM    

China's Technology Future is in the Chips 


China's Impact on the Semiconductor Industry: 2006 Update, Alan S. Morrisson, Ed Pausa et al, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, New York, January 2007, pdf, 76 pages 

The PriceWaterhouse Coopers (PWC) Technology Center has been doing a series of reports on the semiconductor industry in China since 2004 and, as an apparent part of a bigger thought-leadership program has been releasing a chunk of their research on the industry to the world for free.

The most recent update, covering 2006, provides an excellent overview of the condition of the industry, and a first-level review of some of the drivers of the business. The focus is quantitative, and while the industry could use some good quantitative analysis, there are enough critical qualitative factors around the industry in China to merit an entirely separate publication. As such, the report is not a comprehensive look at the industry and its prospects.

Nonetheless, I find it invaluable, and highly recommend it.
 

Posted at 02:27 PM    

Wed - January 3, 2007

Improving my writing through humor 



This site provides what is probably the finest one-page reference to basic rules of good writing I've ever come across.

Now, if I could only remember to use them all...
 

Posted at 02:17 PM    

Mon - August 14, 2006

Gizmo and China's Development 


Gizmo's China Blog: Comments and thoughts on China's development from an Internationalist in Beijing http://www.gizmocapital.com  

Into the chorus of blogs that you read about China, you'd be well advised to add Gizmo to the list. Gizmo has this unique point of view that comes from living in China while remaining a staunch internationalist, resisting the temptation to become a China hand.

Giz has launched the blog with a couple of very good posts, my favorite of which covers the issue of China's growing economic nationalism.
 

Posted at 08:32 PM    


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