The Canadian pot bubbles

The interesting Canadian political situation has gotten more interesting. Or, less interesting, depending on what you find interesting.

When last we left it, the Governor General had agreed to prorogue Parliament, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper had asked. The prevailing sense was, he was hoping the Liberal-NDP-(BQ) coalition would fall apart in the seven weeks or so before Parliament met next.

Meanwhile, you recall that the leader of the Liberal Party, Stephane Dion, had already submitted his resignation, to take effect when the party chose a new leader at the party convention in Vancouver in May. He had done that before this whole brouhaha had come up. The three announced candidates for the leader position were Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, and Dominic LeBlanc, Members of Parliament all; Ignatieff and Rae had run last time and had been bested by Dion when fourth- and fifth- and sixth-place candidates threw their support behind him.

(An interesting sidebar I just learned today: Rae and Ignatieff were college roommates. Everybody knows everybody in a small country like Canada.)

So, Liberal Party folks were starting to say, "Gee, even if we hold the coalition together until late January, and vote down the new budget and the Governor General then asks us to form a new government, Dion would be even more of a lame duck Prime Minister than he would be now. Maybe we should choose a new leader right away." Included among those calling for an accelerated process was Rae.

Monday, LeBlanc, who was in third and far behind the other two in support, dropped out and threw his support behind front-runner Ignatieff. Today, Rae, who knows how to count, decided to drop out and threw his support behind Ignatieff. So, with only one candidate, now the party is trying to figure out how to make Ignatieff party leader right now. To do so would violate their party rules, but they can probably cook something up -- most likely, the party executive committee will make him temporary leader and then he will be coronated at a convention.

Now, the interesting part is, Ignatieff has always voiced tepid support for the coalition plan. He never spoke publicly against it, but his support was weak and he let third parties float that he had reservations about the scheme. Canadian political writer Andrew Coyne says Ignatieff was "leading from the rear" on the coalition. So, with Ignatieff as leader, will the Liberals drop the coalition? And if they drop the coalition, will they vote against the government's budget when it is introduced in late January, thus bringing down the government and thus, with no coalition for the Governor General to turn to to form a new government, leading to elections? This is the interesting part.

Should there be a new election, a Harper-Ignatieff race would be interesting. Both are sort of eggheads, Ignatieff having a PhD in history, having written many books, fiction and non-fiction, and having spent many years as a college professor, while Harper has his Bachelor's and Master's degrees in economics and was a professional policy wonk in his early years. Neither is a lawyer. I don't think either of them would get anywhere in US politics.

Posted: Tue - December 9, 2008 at 06:17 PM

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The Canadian pot bubbles

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