Not a lead-pipe cinch, but interesting

There have been other theories explaining the drop in violent crime in the USA starting in the 1990s, such as Freakonomics' linking it to the striking down of states' laws against abortion in the Roe v. Wade decision, but here is another one: The removal of lead from gasoline.

As reported in the New York Times, Jessica Reyes, an economist at Amherst College studied the matter and finds that the drop in violent crime happened about twenty years after the removal of lead from gasoline sold in the USA. Lead has been shown to cause neurological damage in children exposed to it, making them less intelligent and more impulsive. Lead-exposure rates in the USA peaked in the last year before lead-free gasoline was required nationwide, 1973. By comparing the crime rates in various states of the Union that mandated lead-free gasoline at different dates, she bolsters her thesis.

If Ms Reyes is correct, countries that eliminated lead from their gasoline in the 1980s, such as Australia and the United Kingdom, will see their violent crime rates fall, starting about now. (As a follower of the news from Britain, I can tell you that the fall of violent crime in the USA while it rises in the UK has been an embarrassment to the government of that country.)

Correlation is not causality, of course, but this is an interesting theory.

[Found at Slashdot.org.]

Posted: Tue - October 23, 2007 at 01:51 PM

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Not a lead-pipe cinch, but interesting

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