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| '07 Oscar predictions card | | Date Created: Feb 25, 2007, 04:25 PM |
 OK, you can't claim anything if you don't go on record before they're announced.
This year is even more pathetic than last year for great movies if that's possible. Same for CD's. There are still great actors, musicians, songs, and video but is the movie dying like CD's are?
As usual, seeing the movies in question is not a help. In fact I think it's a hindrance. I've only seen one of the major movies up for awards and it makes it very tough to predict which will win for Best Picture which is the only category of the majors that's a toss-up.
The movie I saw was Little Miss Sunshine. It's a nice effort, different, cute, funny, and a good movie. Is it great? Is it in the caliber of past Best Pictures winning Oscars? No chance. But then Crash won last year so "great movie" is no criterion for which movie will win Best Picture.
PC and avoiding the embarrassment of snubbing a great director again will dominate who wins and will trump other factors although the legacy effect won't do it for Peter O'Toole. Sometimes PC and a great performance go together. Best Actor will fall together that way.
The Grammys were totally PC this year, but then they're a joke and always have been. The Oscars have at least some sense of greatness or timelessness. But when there isn't much that's truly great you have to go back to past performances greatness and reward your current political sensibility. You can be sure Al Gore's movie will win Best Documentary for example.
It's a mistake to try to predict Best Song. It was the only one I missed last year and PC won out. So Randy Newman's song in the movie Cars will probably lose but I'd love to see it win. Maybe Cars will win the animated film category.
So of the six majors, EW and Roger Ebert disagree on only Best Picture. Last year I went with one of Roger's picks and another one of EW's which gave me 6 for 6 and both of them 5 of 6.
I have to agree on Scorsese for Best Director, Forest Whitaker for Best Actor, Eddie Murphy of Best Supporting Actor, Helen Mirren for Best Actress, and Jennifer Hudson for Best Supporting Actress (the category traditionally most likely to be an upset).
But Best Picture is a tough call. I hope it's not Little Miss Sunshine but that's an emotional choice. Best Picture doesn't usually go to a quirky dark comedy but it has some PC points going for it. The Departed would have been my choice as it goes with Scorsese as Best Director but this category has split several times in recent years and a legacy award for director should be enough. The Departed doesn't have the maximum PC; that belongs to Babel. So I'm going to have to go with Ebert and Babel.
I also agree with Ebert's pick of Pan's Labyrinth for Best Foreign film and Babel for Best Original Screenplay although this may be the way to reward Little Miss Sunshine if Babel takes Best Picture. The Departed will probably be rewarded with Best Adapted Screenplay.
Let's hope Roger Ebert's condition will allow him to resume his full career this year even if he does think that An Inconvenient Truth is the only movie he insists everyone has to see.
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