No Substantial Change in Iraq Until the Next Administration



Look for substantial change in Iraq in early 2009, after the next President takes the oath of office.

President Bush calls the Iraq Study Group's ideas "interesting." I had a History professor once who said, "Interesting" when he really meant, "Wrong" He said in much the same way that President Bush says it in reference to the ISG.

President Bush is a moralist. He believes in Right and Wrong to a functionally debilitating degree, and he uses this belief as a substitute for knowledge and education. He does not recognize that perspective has a great deal to do with deciding what is Right and what is Wrong, especially in foreign policy.

So he expects that the government of Iraq will come to its senses and do the Right thing. He expects that Iran, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait will all act in ways that will promote the political stability of Iraq because everyone knows it is the Right thing to do. Therefore no negotiations with Syria and Iran are necessary.

Indeed, this morning the Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Rice rules out any discussions with Iran and Syria .

President Bush will not be implementing any of the ISG's recommendations.

The President can see his poll numbers and he knows it is important --in staving off impeachment if for no other reason-- to project the appearance of considering alternative strategies when everyone thinks you're failing miserably. So he went on a "listening tour" that didn't take him outside the belt way, and rejected some ideas immediately as defeatist.

The listen tour was a delaying tactic. Further, President Bush has declared no announcement will be made about shifts in Iraq policy until after the holidays. Given that the Pentagon is dutifully offering "policy shifts" of short term troop level increases to meet concrete goals, it is likely that they are all looking for ways to allow President Bush to appear to be making changes when he is not doing so.

The awful truth is, President Bush has painted himself into a corner with regard to Iraq and even the greater mid-east policy. His moralism preemptively disables any thought of negotiation with interested parties who are not 100% behind American efforts in Iraq. Even if he wanted to negotiate, President Bush's policies and the invasion of Iraq have left the United States's able diplomatic corp with no leverage other than vague and meaningless military threats. So diplomacy is not an option, which leaves only a military option.

A military victory in Iraq would require 350,000 more troops in-country than are presently there. This will not happen without a general draft in America, which means it will not happen at all. If you think the President's poll numbers are low now (in the high 20s with regard to Iraq) then wait until the American people hear about being forced to send their kids to Iraq. That would drive the Presidents general poll numbers into single digits and guarantee a Democratic victory in 2008 no matter who ran.

The upshot is that President Bush will stay in the corner in which he has painted himself for the rest of his term, and it will be up to newer and wiser administrative officials to extricate the United States from what will be known as America's worst foreign policy decision since the attempted invasion of British Canada during the Revolutionary War.

Posted: Fri - December 15, 2006 at 08:47 AM          

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