Lecture I: The Wealth Explosion

Prosperity and its Impediments

• prosperity promoting: technology, property rights, free trade, peace, entrepreneurialism
• prosperity impeding: arbitrary govt ("despotism"), high taxes, regulation, war, dependency

The Commercial Revolution (15th-17thC)

• agriculture, trade, banking
• commercial cities on rivers and coastlines: Italy, Netherlands

The Industrial Revolution (18th-19thC)

• technological innovation (steam power), lowered cost of energy and transport
• mass production in factories for mass consumer markets
• a low rate of sustained growth leads to wealth doubling effect
• Britain the first but not the only example

The Liberal Era in the "Long 19th Century" 1815-1914

• French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars delay liberalisation of Europe
• formation of constitutional, limited, democratic governments
• abolition of serfdom, free trade treaties, gold standard for money
• internal liberalisation combined with external imperialism
• technological revolutions in late 19thC: chemicals, electricity, internal combustion engine
• US: internal economic liberty, external tariffs, later industrialisation, "total" Civil War

Total War and the Total State in the 1st half of the 20thC 1914-1949

• "liberal order" destroyed by WW1
• total war requires total state: war socialism in Germany, conscription, censorship, propaganda, economic autarchy
• economic collapse and hyperinflation leads to communism and fascism (Russia, Germany, China)
• catastrophic loss of life and destruction of property in Europe and Asia
• US spared destruction but still inherits large state: Robert Higg's "rachet effect"

The Rise of "Hampered" Prosperity in the Post-War Period 1945-1973

• western Europe reborn: peace, constitutional govt and the welfare state
• US: domestic consumerism, the Cold War and the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex
• crises in the 1970s: the Vietnam War, euro-sclerosis, and the oil crisis

New Regions of Prosperity

• The Rise of East Asia (Confucian Capitalism): Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore
• the collapse of communism: the Second Chinese Revolution of 1978, the Soviet Union and the "dustbin of history"

The Future of Propserity

• Can it Continue Forever?
• what about the forgotten regions?: Africa, "Arabia", Russia (?)