GONE WITH THE WIND


frankly, my dears, we didn't get the storms.

This weekend I heard a news report about rising gas prices that predicted prices would rise another ten to fifteen cents over the next two weeks because of worries over tensions with Iran and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. After I'd reversed the DVR (to be sure that I'd heard correctly) and checked my head (to be sure that it hadn't exploded), I wondered: Do the oil companies know something I don't? Did Ahmadinejad plant a couple of dirty bombs after he spoke at Columbia? Did three or four named storms just pop up in the Atlantic while I was following the baseball scores? Or are they as out of their minds as I think they are?

Yes. They are. But we already knew that, and that's not even my point here anyway. (Though I suspect it is only a matter of time before oil companies stop all pretense of trying to be serious and start inventing even crazier reasons to raise their prices -- like the collapse of the New York Mets, or the fear that a Jim-and-Pam relationship might diminish romantic chemistry on The Office.)

The point I do want to make here is that -- shocker, I know -- for the second year in a row, the Chickens Little at the National Hurricane Center got everyone all worked with doom-and-gloom, sky-falling predictions for a post-Katrina hurricane season that has so far fizzled like the New Orleans Saints' offense. They promised us a Zambelli Fireworks display, but all we got were a couple of wet sparklers.

In 2006, NOAA forecasters predicted:

• 16 named storms
• 10 hurricanes
• 6 major hurricanes
• 81% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US
• 64% chance of a major hurricane hitting the east coast.

But we got:

• 10 named storms
• 5 hurricanes
• 2 major hurricanes
• 0 hurricanes (of any size) hitting the US.

You might think that such a major miscalculation might inspire a bit more restraint, or at least a bit more studied and careful consideration before repeating the same sorts of predictions (and thus the same sorts of mistakes.) But you would be wrong. If only because restraint and subtlety and certainty do not play as well, nor garner anywhere near the attention, as the site of otherwise sensible adults crying about Category 5 death and destruction.

And so this year, NOAA forecasters predicted:

• 17 named storms
• 10 hurricanes
• 5 major hurricanes
• 74% chance of major hurricane hitting the US
• 40% chance of major hurricane hitting the East Coast.

But (so far) we've had:

• 13 named storms
• 4 hurricanes
• 2 major hurricanes
• 0 major hurricanes hitting the US
• 1 hurricane -- Humberto, a lowly Category 1 -- hit the US.

But President Ahmadinejad did go to Columbia, the Mets did collapse, and Jim & Pam are still dating, so anything is possible. Save, of course, for an accurate and assiduous weather forecast.

Posted: Mon - October 1, 2007 at 12:58 PM          

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