1978

To the editor:

Recently Robert S. McNamara, president of the World Bank, addressed the Urological section of the American College of Surgeons and said that "Unless poverty and the population problem are overcome the result may be a world that none of us want to live in."

He further noted that "unless these problems receive more urgent attention than they are getting now, they will in time seriously threaten the political and social stability not only of the developing countries but of the developed nations as well."

He detailed the steps the developed nations must take to improve the economies and the annual per capita income of the poverty stricken countries and insisted that he is going to preach that gospel until the well developed nations of the world take action; i.e., increased financial and technical aid!

In discussing the population problem, he noted that there are now more than four billion people living on this planet and that it took mankind more than a million years to reach a population of one billion. However, the second billion required only 120 years; the third billion 32 years; and the fourth billion 15 years. At the current global growth rate of about two percent, the world's population will add a fifth billion in about 11 years and some 6 billion will be living in the year 2000! To mathematicians the reason is obvious -- population increases geometrically or exponentially and not arithmetically!

To dramatize the impact of geometrical progression, the story is told of an emperor who wished to reward one of his faithful subjects and asked him to name any wish. His reply to his emperor, who was a devoted chess fan, was: "I am a poor man and my wants are few. All I ask for is for you to put one grain of rice on the first square of your chess board and double it on each succeeding square."

Little did the emperor realize the extent of his commitment! On the 21st square, there were one million grains of rice; on the 40th square, one billion grains; and on the 64th or final square, there would be 185 quadrillion grains or enough to cover the entire earth of a distance of six inches! The results of the geometric progression are frankly frightening when applied to human reproduction.

In an effort to clarify the impact of a certain birth rate upon the population growth the number 70 is critical; i.e., if the birth rate is one percent, the population doubles in 70 years; if two percent, the population doubles in 35 years, if three percent, in 24 years, if four percent, in 18 years, and five percent in 14 years. To attain population stabilization a growth rate of less than one percent would be necessary.

In Latin America and Africa the rate is approximately 3.5 percent, doubling the peoples in these areas in 20 years. In the Philippines it is expected that the present 42 million will reach 100 million by the year 2000, and in the same interval of time, Indonesia's 130 million will reach 260 million and India will reach 1 billion! Furthermore, if a mandatory decree could be enforced that would limit all families to two children, there would still be five billion people by the year 2000.

Of further interest is that Calcutta, a cultural sink, will have 30 million by the year 2000, and Mexico City with its birth rate of 5.7 percent (Machismo) will double in 12 years, and for further emphasis, Brazil (Machismo) has doubled its population 14 times in the past 100 years. The country of Mexico, which at present is exporting its wetbacks illegally because of a lack of job opportunities, will increase its population from a present 60 million to one of 135 million by the year 2000 and this is only 22 years hence!

Another interesting aspect of the population problem is its structure: In the developed countries the median age is 31 years, whereas in the developing nations, the median age is 19 years. In the emerging nations 40 percent of the population is less than 15 years of age! If hell hath no fury like a scorned woman, can you imagine what it would be like with an army of neglected and depressed young people?

Another way of looking at the population problem is to consider the rate of food production. Currently worldwide birth rate is two percent while the increase in food production is 2.5 percent. This seems reassuring until one notes that the rate of food demand is three percent due to increasing affluence and rising expectations. Of real concern to us is that the world grain reserves in 1961 was 95 days and by the year 1975 had fallen to 30 days.

Norman Borlaug's (Nobel Laureate) Green Revolution has given us a pause through his skillful use of hybrid seed, irrigation systems, and the massive use of fertilizer, but it is at best only a pause. To be sure aqua-culture and an increase or yield from the sea will also provide some additional time but there is no way that food production can keep up with the increase in population if it runs its present course.

Another concern regarding food production is that virtually all of the readily exploitable land in the world (3.5 billion acres) is already under cultivation and the vast majority of the remaining land is unsatisfactory for agriculture. In Australia only one percent of the land is cultivatable, five percent in Canada 10 percent in China, and in Japan 80 percent of the land is mountainous! It is also claimed that 6.6 billion areas could be added to our agricultural production but only at a cost of $400 to $1,000 per acre: i.e., the cost of the water, irrigation, fertilizers, etc.

Lastly as our cities expand more and more land is being taken away from agriculture, and this fact should be obvious enough for those of us who live in the Connecticut Valley and have witnessed the gradual decrease in the amount of farmland.

The United States is in a fortunate position and blessed with the largest contiguous land mass of fertile soil, good growing climate, and adequate rainfall, and our best growing land lies below the 45th parallel (North Dakota) whereas Russia's best growing land lies above the 45th parallel. America, together with Canada, is essentially the bread basket of the world, and may someday have to play God and have to decide who will and who will not receive our grain, and unpleasant prospect at best.

While we are blessed with nature's abundance, climatologists tell us that the climate of the world is gradually changing in a direction that is not encouraging and that a mild drought in our Great Plains could be a disaster. Recently we have been aware of such a possibility by the droughts in Southern California and Texas.

Abel Leader, a urologist in Houston, and a prominent advocate of Vasectomy as one form of sterilization, also notes that there are other aspects of the population explosion that are of deep concern beside the sheer increase in numbers. He speaks of the population implosion as people everywhere migrate to the cities to seek a better life and in so doing bring added burdens to our already jammed metropolitan areas. In addition he speaks of the population implosion where people of mixed races are being crowded together in our cities, and gangs run amuck asserting their ethnic supremacy or vie for control of the limited land areas in their communities.

Another reason for the sudden increase in our population has been the fall in our death rate resulting from our vastly improved medical care. The use of antibiotics, including Penicillin, has saved more lives in 10 years than all the lives lost in human history. As a practical example, the life expectancy in India in 1940 was 29 years and had risen to 55 years by the year 1975! This is true all over the world.

A final aspect of the problem is also important. It is estimated that in the United States approximately 20 percent of all births are unwanted and unplanned, and Dr. Leader says 21 percent of the births in Houston are illegitimate, and 25 percent of these births run in the 11-15 years of age group! In his city, there were 3962 cases of neglected and abused children in 1971, and by 1973 this number had risen to 5,100. Lastly, in Houston 60 percent of the welfare costs goes to aid dependent children.

What is to be done about the population problem? First and foremost, the world needs a World Population Policy, and the Third World must be convinced that planned parenthood is not a form of genocide. To increase the death rate is inconceivable so we must lower the birth rate. To do this is an enormous and difficult task and requires the use of widespread education in family planning. To effect family planning ideally requires a cheap, accessible, reversible, non-surgical form of contraception or sterilization and this is not as yet available. Much additional research in reproductive biology will be required before the ideal situation is at hand.

In the meantime, we have effective means of population control and they should be utilized! Organizations like Zero Population Growth and Negative Population Growth are endeavoring to assist in coping with the population boom, and emphasize the fact that "just as the earth and its resources of land, air, and water are limited, so are the demands that can be placed upon them."

Bernard Berelson in "Beyond Family Planning" answered the question of "How many children?" in this manner:

"In the last analysis, what will be scientifically available, politically acceptable, administratively feasible, economically justifiable, and morally tolerated depends upon people's perceptions of consequences. If the population problem is considered relatively unimportant or only moderately important that judgment will not support much investment of effort. If it is considered urgent, much more can and will be done. The fact is that, despite the large forward strides taken in international recognition of the problem in the 1960s, there still does not exist an informed, firm, and constant conviction in high circles that this is a matter with truly great implications for human welfare."

Unimpeded population growth means malnourishment of most of mankind (50 percent at the present time), an increase in pollution and crime, the erosion of our non-renewable natural resources, the fouling of our lakes, and rivers, and despoilation of the natural beauty of our planet, faltering power systems, and finally seething unrest in our cities causing political instabilities, conflict, and perpetual strife.

The exponential growth of population is the greatest danger to mankind with no parallel in past history, but man of all animals is capable of subjugating nature to his will and hopefully can control his destiny.

A final note on the problem. Look at the minute hand of your watch and as it passes from one minute to the next, 172 people will have been added to mankind. On Feb. 1 of the year the World Population clock read 4,336,395,293!

"There are none so deafÉ"

Charles E. Jacobson Jr., M.D.

45 Wyllys St.

Manchester, CT