The CNN anchors, in between stories of the
impending landfall of hurricane Jeanne (the fourth in 6 weeks), blithely asked,
“Should we stay in Iraq, or should we pull out?” And people wrote
in using their answer to show support for the President or opposition to his
“leadership”.
The question however is much bigger than that.
But one issue that really should be settled is whether or not the invasion and
current occupation has really aided our “war on terror”. To anyone
who has paid attention to the latest Iraq invasion and it’s aftermath, it
is impossible to argue that the “terrorists” (as if they were some
finite membership organization) are weaker and we (the United States) are
stronger and safer. Never before has our domestic force strength been so low, so
compromised, with over half of our troops stationed overseas. Things have gotten
so bad that we now drawing on reserve units that have never, never been deployed
into a hot fire zone. For example the 98th Army Reserve Division was just
shipped out of Rochester, NY about 60 miles from my hometown of Buffalo. They
are being sent to train Iraqi defense forces. The 98th Army Reserve
doesn’t even have it’s own weapons or vehicles. I’m sure the
argument would be made that they won’t be in direct combat situations, but
as we have seen over the last 18 months under Rumsfeld’s lighter, faster
military, all of Iraq is a combat zone. The best argument that those of the
“Iraq, terror, safer” camp is that it’s better to face
“the terrorists” (again the limited pool of hostile baddies) in Iraq
instead of in “America”. The problem with that... is it stupidly
assumes that there’s a limited number of people wanting to attack
“America”. That we can draw all of the terrorists into Iraq and then
take’em out. The problem is that instead of trapping terrorists overseas,
Afghanistan and Iraq are serving as recruiting fodder for young men, and
occasionally young women to jihad against America.
To make matters worse we have strained our
relationships with our allies. We have strained our budget to the breaking
point, leaving no room to maneuver if circumstances warrant it. Beyond the
walking-tall chest thumping we’re weaker, broker and more hated than
before. On top of that, our commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq exposed the
limits of US military power for all the world to see.
So should we just pack it up and abandon Iraq to the
fate we made for it? And when I’m talking about the fate we made for
Iraq, I’m not just talking about the latest invasion against Iraq. The
latest invasion and occupation was only the latest injury against the Iraqi
people. Twelve years of sanctions, when we knew at least since 1998 that Iraq
was essentially disarmed. So should we walk away? That’s the question that
the CNN numb-nuts asked.
Well, I guess it depends. If you side with Bush and
“stay the course” line, then it’s time to get out. Because
130,000 - 150,000 US troops will do jack-shit to pacify or secure Iraq.
Continuing on the current course will only provoke and encourage a resistance,
and result in more and more US troops being killed in a losing
battle.
So what happens if we pull out? A likely scenario
is a civil war along religious and ethnic lines that threatens to destabilize
the entire region. Do you really see the Iranians, and if the Iranians then the
Saudi’s sitting out of a religious war on their border? What about the
Syrians or Turkey, with their famous love of autonomous Kurds? And ask
yourself, what will Sharon’s Israel do if Iraq starts going down that
road? Not a pretty picture, fucking Armagedon is what the red calf
born-again’s are in fact hoping for. And if you’re a women in Iraq,
you will find yourself with even less rights then you had under Hussein’s
rein of terror. The administration likes to cite the elevation of women’s
rights in Afghanistan, but on the ground in Kabul and especially in the
provinces it’s back to burkas and walking down the street accompanied by a
male relatives.
It’s impossible to imagine a stable Iraq with
less than 300,000 troops engaging in urban combat to squelch a growing urban
guerilla resistance. And even then, who knows. It’s unlikely that the US
public will long tolerate a military escalation that begins to take on Vietnam
propositions. And of course the immediate question is, where do you get those
troops? Troop strength is so depleted and the forces are so demoralized that
short of a draft, ignore the White House lies to the contrary, it ain’t
gonna happen. So what do we do? Do we admit to the world that we fucked up, but
stabilizing Iraq is important to every god-fearing oil consuming civilized
nation on earth? Would all those god fearing petroleum sucking allies sign on?
Sy Hirsh, when questioned recently about Kerry’s “plan” to
increase the involvement of our European allies was rather skeptical. He said
he saw little support coming from our European friends, he asked why would they
want to “change the color of the corpses”. Whatever happens it looks
like we’re fucked, it looks like Iraq’s fucked.
So to CNN’s question should we stay or should
we go, I guess I’d answer like this: